NL & AL Rookie of the Year Odds 2025: Who’s MLB’s Next Young Star? (July 2025)

There may not be a harder award race to pick in sports than MLB Rookie of the Year Awards.

Unlike in the NBA or NFL, where the top draft picks enter the league right away, and the best of the best typically are known from their first game, picking a rookie to win in the marathon of a 162-game season is a much more difficult task.

Often, the first part of the battle is just getting the rookie to the show to make their MLB debut, then it’s a matter of staying up. We have seen Rookie of the Years lead their race wire-to-wire, like Corbin Carroll in 2023, or Julio Rodriguez in 2022.

Other times, a clear-cut Rookie of the Year can be harder to find, like when Jonathan India won in 2021, or even when Luis Gil ended up taking home the award in the American League last year.

All it takes is a few hot months for any player or pitcher to vault themselves right to the top of a Rookie of the Year race. The only question is who will be the young stars that emerge this year.

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling race for both AL and NL Rookie of the Year.

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2025 MLB ROY races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current Rookie of the Year Award Odds: Top Contenders for 2025

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s just take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two Rookie of the Year races.

2025 American League Rookie of the Year Odds

The American League Rookie of the Year race has a clear favorite, with a wide-open field of contenders vying for second place.

The oddsmakers have Jacob Wilson as a heavy favorite at -625, giving him an implied probability near 90% to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Wilson continues to produce week in and week out, hitting .338 through 80 games to go with nine homers and 40 RBI all while playing good defense at shortstop for the A’s. If he keeps up those two things, it’s going to be difficult for anybody to topple Wilson as the favorite to win this award.

That said, there were some big movers in odds this past week with a couple of players closing the gap at the top of the leadboard.

Wilson’s teammate, Nick Kurtz, has been on a heater since returning from the injured list. His odds have gone from +5000 two weeks ago all the way to +650 this week as a result. Kurtz already has 12 homers in 46 games on the year, flashing his impressive power.

Cam Smith continues to post impressive results for the Houston Astros, and his odds have shifted drastically over the course of the past two weeks as well. Sitting at +4000 last week, he’s now third in odds behind Wilson and Kurtz at +900.

2025 National League Rookie of the Year Odds

Without a doubt, the NL Rookie of the Year race is much more competitive than the American League race.

Jacob Misiorowski is not only one of the hottest rookies in MLB at the moment, he’s one of the hottest pitchers in the entire sport.

After winning a marquee showdown against Paul Skenes last week, Misiorowski’s odds have already gone from +2000 two weeks ago to now being the odds-on favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award despite making just three MLB starts.

His ability to surpass some of theses other names speaks volumes to not only how impressive he has been but also to how open this race is in the NL.

Baldwin isn’t too far behind him, though, as the oddsmakers are still giving him a 20% chance to take home the hardware. Baldwin is putting together an impressive season of his own with the Atlanta Braves, hitting .280 with an .824 OPS through 56 games. Baldwin isn’t going anywhere in this conversation as long as he continues to swing the bat at that level.

After making his MLB debut last week, Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds shot up this leaderboard and now sits fourth in odds at +1600.

Isaac Collins of the Brewers has put himself on the map with his impressive play as of late also. Providing stellar defense with respectable offensive production, he’s a dark horse in this conversation if he continues to get regular run in Milwaukee’s outfield.

This race is far from locked up with plenty of room for names to make a run at the hardware, and just one hot week could thrust a player into the thick of the favorites conversation.

AL Rookie of the Year Odds: American League Favorites

The American League Rookie of the Year race is Jacob Wilson’s to lose, but some of baseball’s most intriguing prospects will try to give him a run for his money.

Kurtz has been torching the baseball since returning to the field on June 9. In 75 plate appearances this month, Kurtz is hitting .271 with a .934 OPS to go with seven homers, three doubles, and 17 RBI.

His talent has been on full-display these past few weeks, and he’s launched himself into the thick of the favorites conversation with his power-hitting ability. With his homer potential, Kurtz’s odds could continue to inch closer to Wilson’s as the year progresses if he continues to leave the yard at this rate.

There’s a very real chance that the Athletics finish with the top two players in the AL Rookie of the Year race when all is said and done.

Smith has also gone from an afterthought in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation to being one of the favorites for the award with his strong play as of late.

Over his last 20 games, Smith is batting a whopping .342 to go with a .963 OPS. Slugging .566 over that stretch, he has racked up four homers, five doubles, and has driven in 15 runs as well.

He’s doing a little bit of everything over the past few weeks for Houston, including playing strong defense in right field despite it being a new position for him. The 22-year-old’s stock continues to rise as he gets more comfortable at the big-league level.

Wilson may be the heavy favorite, but the AL Rookie of the Year race is far from over with so much of the season left to be played.

Big-Time Dark Horses for AL ROY in 2025

It’s been a really slow start for two of baseball’s top prospects in Roman Anthony, Just Baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, and Jac Caglianone, Just Baseball’s No. 10 overall prospect. As a result, their odds to win the AL Rookie of the Year award have ballooned in recent weeks.

After his two-homer performance back on June 19, a game many thought would spark a hot streak for Cags, he has gone just 2-for-30 in his last nine games (.067) with a .276 OPS. The power potential is undeniable, but Caglianone has yet to see the results he’s looking for in the majors.

Similarly, while it hasn’t been quite as big of a struggle as Caglianone, Anthony has yet to get things going as well. Through his first 18 MLB games, baseball’s top prospect is hitting .193 with a .657 OPS and just one homer on the year.

Still, these are considered two of the top offensive prospects in the game, and just one hot streak could thrust themselves back into the favorites conversation for this award.

Beyond those two bats are a plethora of talented players looking to make up ground in the AL Rookie of the Year race. Specifically, the AL East features a majority of the candidates, including a pair of Yankees, two Boston bats, and the newly-recalled speedster Chandler Simpson of the Rays.

It’ll be a long shot for any of these players to surpass the names ahead of them in odds, but these are some impressive rookies worth keeping an eye on as the year progresses.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds: National League Favorites

If you’ve been tapped into the baseball world over the past few weeks, there’s a pretty good chance you’ve heard about what Jacob Misiorowski is doing with Milwaukee to kick off his MLB career.

After starting his big-league career off with 11 hitless innings, which was the longest by a starter to open his career in the Modern Era, Misiorowski shined once again last week. Across his three starts (16 IP), The Miz has allowed just three hits and two runs while striking out 19 and walking just seven.

His numbers tell only half the story, though. Throw on a Misiorowski start, and you’ll see some of the game’s best stuff on full display. The sky is the limit with this young hurler, and if he can continue to keep his command in check, he’s in a great position to remain a favorite to take home the hardware.

With that being said, this race is far from over.

If the Braves can find a way to keep Drake Baldwin in the lineup consistently, he’s got the type of bat that can certainly make a push for this award. He’s been outstanding this season and a big piece of Atlanta’s offense.

In the same division, Agustín Ramírez has hit the cover off the ball, racking up 12 homers in his first 58 games while slugging .485 with a .229 isolated power. He is the real sleeper amongst the favorites, as he has the benefit of being on a rebuilding team where his playing time is going to be there. As long as he keeps these power numbers up, he’ll remain in the favorites conversation.

This is shaping out to be a fascinating three-man race for the National League Rooke of the Year award.

Big-Time Dark Horses for NL ROY in 2025

The list of dark-horse candidates in the National League is filled with talented arms who can make a run with just a couple of hot starts, just as we are seeing with Misiorowski.

Reds top pitching prospect Chase Burns made his MLB debut last week and saw his odds go from off the board all the way to +1400 last week. Currently sitting at +1600, he’s got the stuff to put himself on the map if he can translate his minor-league success to the bigs.

Burns, the No. 2 overall selection from last year’s MLB draft, was throwing to a 1.77 ERA with a 12.14 K/9 across 13 starts at three minor-league levels before earning his promotion.

Other arms such as Ben Casparius, Cade Horton, Mick Abel, and Chad Patrick are all looking to catch fire with their respective big-league clubs. However, Patrick has separated himself from the pack in odds with his strong numbers this season.

Patrick leads all rookie pitchers in fWAR at 2.0 and is pitching to a 3.51 ERA across 17 starts on the year. Still, each of these arms have a viable path to putting themselves in the favorites conversation if they can put together a strong stretch in the coming weeks.

There’s a handful of bats in the dark-horse conversation, including Hye-Seong Kim of the Dodgers, Isaac Collins of the Brewers, and Matt Shaw of the Cubs. Shaw is still looking to get things going with Chicago since being recalled from the minors, and both Kim and Collins are doing their best to carve out regular playing time with their respective ball clubs.

It’s an extensive list of dark horses for the NL Rookie of the Year award that is chock-full of talented names whose stock could be on the rise in the coming weeks.

How to Follow the MLB Rookie of the Year Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Consistently keeping tabs on the odds each week will show you how a player’s market is fluncuating, which can help you find the right time to place your future’s bet.

There might not be much value in taking Jacob Wilson right now since he is such a favorite, but before the season, you could have gotten him at +700 odds. Instead, looking at another rookie who has the ability to ignite like Jasson Dominguez may be a better bet, and it may be wise to hop on it now before he has another hot week and the odds get worse for you.

At the end of the year, BBWAA voters typically base their criteria on who wins these awards largely on stats, but narrative and team role certainly do factor in. Last year, a great case could have been made for Jackson Merrill, but the narrative and sensation that was Paul Skenes was too much for him to topple. Keeping all those aspects in mind can help you pick the right horse in this race.