AL’s Rookie of the Year Race Lacks the Intrigue of NL’s
The NL's Rookie of the Year race has been in the spotlight all year long. Over in the AL, the race feels much less exciting.
The 2024 Major League Baseball has been a wild ride and there’s still so much more baseball to be played.
A big reason behind this has been the large number of young players who have performed well throughout the league. This, in large part, is why the race for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year is going to be a fascinating one, but one may not pale in comparison to the other.
The National League Rookie of the Year race seems to be all but locked in to two players. Pittsburgh Pirates flamethrower Paul Skenes and arguably the most clutch hitter in all of baseball, the San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill. No matter who ends up with the award at the end of the season, you could argue both ways. Honestly, Co-Rookie of the Year award winners would be a fair result.
Over in the American League, though, the answer is nowhere near as clear. Not only is the answer unclear, but the field just doesn’t feel as exciting as it does in the NL. Skenes and Merrill have emerged as two of the game’s best young talents, but the players on the AL side seem to lack the true starpower.
Just because it’s not as intriguing doesn’t mean the race won’t still be a tight one. This is going to come down to the wire.
AL Rookie of the Year Odds
As of the time of this article, there are five players in contention for the award and none of them entered the year as the favorite. Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford was deemed the favorite across multiple platforms as the player who would take the award at season’s end. Now, according to our friends over at BetMGM, additional names have emerged as candidates to watch.
Colton Cowser
As shown in the graphic above, it is almost a foregone conclusion that Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is going to end the season being crowned the AL Rookie of the Year. an incredible start to his 2024 season put him in a prime position from the beginning. While the odds might say that they race is over, I would probably bet there’s a good chance it ends up being closer in the end.
Luis Gil
Luis Gil, like Cowser, was on an absolute heater to start the season for the Yankees. Not only was he dominant, but he was able to help them get through the majority of the season while Gerrit Cole was working his way back from his elbow injury.
The pushback with Gil now is that, even though he has still been good up to this point, there is a good chance his innings are limited going forward, especially after having been removed from his last start due to injury, and he continues to fall down the list.
Austin Wells
Then there’s Gil’s battery-mate, Austin Wells.
After arguably being the league’s unluckiest hitter, the hits started to fall for Wells. Through the early-season struggles, all of the batter ball data kept showing us that his fate was inevitably going to turn around, and boy have they. Since the end of May, Wells has led all MLB catchers (min. 200 PA) in fWAR at 2.6, 142 wRC+, and a .373 OBP. Not only has he been able to round into form, but he’s doing so after being tasked with following up AL MVP-favorite Barry Bon… I mean Aaron Judge. Wells took his opportunity of everyday ABs when Jose Trevino went down with his injury and ran with it. In my opinion, I think he should win the award at the end of the year.
The Best of the Rest
After those three, it truly is anyone’s guess as to how this race is going to end. Mason Miller made a strong case at the beginning of the season locking down the back-end of the Athletics bullpen with his consistent 100+ MPH fastball. After being placed on the injured list due to a self-sustained injury, it seems like he has fallen out of the race due to an “out of sight, out of mind” thought process.
The Red Sox duo of outfielder Wilyer Abreu and shortstop/outfielder Ceddane Rafaela have also performed well enough, in spurts, to have been on the list to win the award as well. However, the argument can be made that Abreu has done far more to be in consideration than Rafaela has.
There was a lull in the middle of the season where Abreu’s production at the plate was keeping the Red Sox lineup afloat during their offensive struggles and has been a key cog to them remaining in the race to this point.
The last player worth highlighting is Tigers second baseman Colt Keith. Keith entered this season after signing his pre-debut extension with the Tigers and there is no way to sugar coat how bad the start was. After hitting only .154 in March and April, Keith bounced back in the month of May hitting a crisp .342.
June may not have been as kind to him, but a strong July where he hit .322 with a .404 on-base percentage, and seven home runs has propelled him back into the race. Not to mention taking Rookie of the Month honors as well.
Overall, the aura surrounding the AL Rookie of the Year award race might not be as exciting as how the NL race will finish, but nobody should be downplaying how the American League race will end as we come down to the wire. The current odds, as of today, likely will not reflect how close the race is going to end up being. With the current trajectory of some of the players involved, there is no doubt that there can be a shakeup at the top, and someone overtake Cowser for the betting favorite to win the award.
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