Only Cal Raleigh Can Contest Aaron Judge for 2025 AL MVP
If anyone can wrestle the AL MVP away from the Yankees slugger this season, it looks like it will have to be Cal Raleigh, shockingly.
Coming into the 2025 season, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge was a favorite for the American League Most Valuable Player. Of course he was. Judge is always a favorite.
He won the AL MVP unanimously in 2024, beating out Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. If even Witt Jr. couldn’t top Judge, does anyone have a shot this year? While Witt is still a top contender this season, a new, surprise candidate has emerged over the first two and a half months of the season. And when we say surprise, we mean Surprise with a capital “S.”
Cal Raleigh, affectionately known as “Big Dumper,” has entered the conversation. He might just be the best bet to dethrone Judge. Aside from having the best nickname in baseball, what has the Seattle Mariners‘ catcher done to thrust himself into the early MVP talk?
The first thing you notice when you look at Raleigh’s stats are his power numbers. He doesn’t just lead catchers with 26 home runs in 66 games, he leads everyone — Judge included. He’s batting a career-high .265 with a .629 slugging percentage and a .400 wOBA, both of which rank second in the majors behind Judge. He also ranks third in the AL with 53 RBIs.
Cal Raleigh’s historic pace is mind-boggling
Basically, the 28-year-old backstop has claimed the title of Best Catcher in Baseball and is putting together a historic season. Back on May 29, MLB.com’s Brent Maguire wrote that Raleigh is on pace for one of the greatest seasons by a catcher, ever. Nothing has changed since then, except that he has gotten even better. Raleigh has hit seven home runs in his last 11 games.
He’s now on pace to hit 63 home runs (64 if you round up). No catcher has hit more than 48 in a single season, which Salvador Perez did in 2021. Perez hit 33 when he was in the lineup as a catcher. Raleigh has already hit 24 (92%) of his homers as a catcher.
In a normal season, Raleigh would be a shoo-in as the favorite to win the MVP at this point. However, when you’re talking about Judge, nothing is normal. He has video game numbers that don’t look real. He leads the majors with a .392 batting average, a .488 on-base percentage and an absurd .776 slugging percentage. He’s first with 59 RBIs, a .520 wOBA and a bonkers 245 wRC+.
Barring a catastrophic injury, this will be Judge’s fourth time in the last five seasons that he’ll finish in the top five of MVP voting. Realistically, the odds are extremely good that he’ll win his third MVP honors.
However, Raleigh has something going for him that might give voters some pause when making their picks later this season.
Can Cal Raleigh find an edge over Aaron Judge?
On top of his historic power numbers, Raleigh is arguably more valuable to the Mariners than Judge is to the Yankees. That sounds insane to even say, considering the season Judge is having, leading the Yankees to a 42-25 record. But there’s the catch, the Yankees are a better team and Judge has a stronger supporting cast.
The 33-34 Mariners didn’t do much in the offseason to plug holes in the lineup. Seattle’s lineup is producing a middling offensive effort, and is decidedly weaker than New York’s. The Mariners rank 16th in the majors with 291 runs scored, compared to the Yankees’ third-best 366.
How much value is Raleigh bringing to the Mariners?
Besides Raleigh, the Mariners have three qualified hitters with an OPS above the .716 league-average mark. The Yankees have seven aside from Judge.
Yankees hitters have compiled an MLB-best 17.2 fWAR as a team. Judge has contributed 5.9 (34.3%) to that. The Mariners have accumulated 9.3 fWAR, with Raleigh contributing 4.0 (43%). That’s also the second-most fWAR in the majors.
Experts and odds still favor Judge over Raleigh
As much as there is a case to be made for Raleigh’s historic campaign earning MVP acclaim, Judge is, unsurprisingly, still the overwhelming favorite. Although, the most recent updates from media outlets rank Raleigh as the top contender to Judge’s ongoing assault on MLB pitching.
The latest MLB.com MVP poll ranks Raleigh second. While Judge has a commanding share of the first-place votes, with 40 of 41, just seeing a catcher listed here is a breath of fresh air.
The MLB experts aren’t alone, either. Vegas odds heavily favor Judge. BetMGM lists Judge as a -10000 favorite to win AL MVP, with Raleigh second at +2500. That’s a massive gap, although Raleigh was listed at +3500 the week prior. At least he’s making up ground.
There’s still a mountain for Raleigh to climb to overtake the archetypal Bronx Bomber. But if anyone can wrestle the prestigious award out of Judge’s clutches this season, it looks like it will have to be Cal Raleigh.
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