Why Bobby Witt Jr.’s Case for AL MVP Will Fall Short in 2024
No one's MVP case exists in a silo, and the large presence of Aaron Judge will likely prevent Bobby Witt Jr. from getting the recognition he deserves.
When Rod Carew led the American League in batting average, base hits and runs scored during his Most Valuable Player campaign of 1974, he became the first to lead the majors in all three categories since Stan Musial in 1952.
Hall of Famers Ty Cobb (1911 and 1915) and Nap Lajoie (1901) are the only others to do it since the start of the Modern Era in 1901.
Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is attempting to become the fifth player in that legendary group. Surely that makes him the favorite for American League MVP, right?
Witt signed an 11-year, $288.8 million extension before the start of Spring Training and has lived up to the early expectations in this roller coaster season for his franchise. He earned his first All-Star Game selection and even finished second in the Home Run Derby despite hitting more home runs (50) than eventual winner Teoscar Hernández (49).
The biggest tell in his MVP candidacy is that the 24-year-old has elevated the Royals from a 106-loss team in 2023 to one vying for the club’s first postseason in nine years.
Despite some recent struggles, Kansas City will have its first record above .500 since winning the 2015 World Series. It’s impossible to ignore Witt as a key cog in that turnaround.
If the Royals can win two of their final four regular season games, they will become only the sixth club to have a 30-win improvement from one year to the next. Moreover, they’ll be only the third to do it after losing 100 games.
Exclusive Club
The old adage that numbers never lie isn’t always true, as certain statistics can be massaged to give one thing an appearance it doesn’t deserve.
With enough qualifiers, we could conclude that Kauffman Stadium is a sports mecca since it is the oldest ballpark in the AL Central. While it has been in existence since 1973, it lacks a certain allure and even pales in comparison aesthetically to a handful of stadiums built after the turn of the century.
One statistic that’s hard to ignore as a fact: when Bobby Baseball goes, so too does KC.
When Witt scores at least once in a game, the Royals are 55-33 (.625); when he doesn’t, the offense suffers, and they are 29-41 (.414).
(Witt scoring at least twice in a game ups Kansas City’s winning percentage to .720; when he has scored three runs or more, the team has produced a sterling 9-0 record.)
Though MLB has seen a rise in players with his combination of power and speed, it’s still a rarity in the game. He has 32 home runs and 31 stolen bases to go along with a bat-to-ball skill that has become elite, too.
Witt is batting a league-leading .333 thanks to 208 base hits, the most for an AL shortstop since Derek Jeter had 216 in 2012.
While Shohei Ohtani chased down 50/50 for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League, Witt is hoping to join the very exclusive 33/33/.333 club.
Only four players have ever slugged 33 home runs, stolen 33 bases and batted .333 in the same season. Two won the MVP (Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023 and Larry Walker, 1997) while the other two finished fourth in voting and eventually entered the Baseball Hall of Fame (Willie Mays, 1957 and Vladimir Guerrero, 2002).
Judge, Jury and Executioner
No single player’s MVP case exists in a silo. The rather large presence of Aaron Judge and his second pursuit of 60 home runs makes it hard to imagine Witt will get the recognition he deserves. But he wouldn’t be alone in putting together a career-best campaign only to walk away as the runner-up.
Ted Williams was the last player to bat above .400 when he hit .406 with 37 home runs and an absurd .553 on-base percentage in 1941. However, Boston finished second in the Junior Circuit to the New York Yankees, who were led by eventual MVP Joe DiMaggio and his 56-game hitting streak.
One could say the shoe was on the other foot with the Yankees in 1961 when Mickey Mantle slugged a career-high 54 homers and led the AL with a .687 slugging percentage en route to his second-place finish.
His teammate on the Bronx Bombers, MVP Roger Maris, hit 61 home runs to break Babe Ruth’s single-season record.
In 1996, Álex Rodríguez posted a 9.4 bWAR — a statistic that did not exist at that time — as runner-up in AL MVP voting. Juan González (3.8 bWAR) barely edged out A-Rod in points, 290 to 287, much in part due to his Texas Rangers having won the AL West.
The presence of fourth-place finisher Ken Griffey Jr. (9.7 bWAR) on the Seattle Mariners alongside the 20-year-old A-Rod was another mitigating factor in the final results.
Judge tops Witt for both bWAR (10.6 to 9.4) and fWAR (10.8 to 10.3). Judge also leads MLB in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He trails Witt Jr. by nine points in batting average but still ranks third in the game. Then there are his 57 home runs and 142 RBI, which are also head and shoulders above everyone.
Between regularly playing center field and elevating Juan Soto to a career-best season by protecting him in the lineup, the case for Judge as the AL MVP for the second time in three years is mighty strong.
Conclusion
Bobby Witt Jr. is having an MVP-caliber season. Posting his second 30/30 season makes him the first shortstop to accomplish that feat. Doing it in consecutive campaigns and younger than any other other player is another notch in his belt.
The No. 2 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft has amassed 88 extra-base hits this season, third-most in MLB and the most in Royals single-season history. It’s also the most by a shortstop since Jimmy Rollins accomplished the feat with the Philadelphia Phillies during his 2007 National League MVP season.
Despite all these signs pointing to Witt, the Royals’ recent losing streak and the presence of Aaron Judge make it highly unlikely he will become the second Royal to take home the AL MVP after George Brett in 1980.
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