The Battle for First-Round Byes Is Coming Down to the Wire

With just less than three weeks remaining on the MLB calendar, the postseason picture has begun to come into focus. However, that image is still a little fuzzy around the edges as no team has run away with the top records in their respective leagues, and therefore, the 2024 byes to the divisional round are still up for grabs.

While the National League duo of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies look poised to claim a shot straight to the NLDS, there is still much work to be done by both clubs to officially clinch that bye.

Things are even more jumbled in the American League, where the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Kansas City Royals are all with 4.5 games of each other in the hunt for an ALDS berth.

If it feels like things are a little more crowded at the top than we’re used to in mid-September, that’s because they are. On Sept. 12 last year, the Orioles had already cracked 91 wins and opened up a 16-win advantage on a first-round bye, the Atlanta Braves had a stunning 95 wins and already clinched a playoff spot, and the Dodgers and the Houston Astros would have had to undergo stunning collapses not to be watching the Wild Card games from home.

But this year, you could reasonably see eight or nine teams earning the bye.

So, with that said, let’s take a deeper look into the teams in both races and some of the deciding elements that could factor into the race for a top-two seed over the final half month of baseball.

Records and odds taken from before play on Sept. 12.

The Fight for the First-Round Bye Is A Close One

Teams with the toughest remaining schedules

Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 83-62, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 99.8%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .548

The Brewers have the most difficult remaining schedule of a team currently in playoff position. They still have two series (seven games) remaining against the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks and three games remaining against the Phillies and New York Mets. Milwaukee’s “easier” remaining games are against the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants.

So, while the Brewers might very well end up as the first team to clinch a spot in the postseason based on the lead they’ve opened up in the NL Central, their hopes of passing the Dodgers or Phillies come in the way of racking up wins against some very good teams.

For teams in weaker divisions, their late-season schedules are usually advantageous, but with the balanced schedule, Milwaukee only has three in-division games remaining. Worth noting, too, is that the Brewers’ final three games come against the Mets, who might be battling for a Wild Card spot right up until the final day of the regular season, so if Milwaukee is prepping for a postseason series and resting players, it might be tough to beat a team fighting for its playoff life.

Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 88-58, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 100%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .527

If there’s one team that seems to be slowly pulling away in the hunt for a bye, it’s the Phillies. After a dip in production in late July and early August, Philadelphia has won 14 of its last 20 games as it looks to run away with the NL East.

However, if something might stand in the Phillies’ way, a 10-game stretch featuring seven contests against the Mets and three against the Brewers could delay the champagne bottles in Philadelphia.

With an eight-game advantage over the Mets in the East, the Phillies aren’t likely to lose all seven to their division rivals, but with how well New York has been playing in its own right, there is sure some exciting baseball to played between the two clubs over the next week.

Already sporting an MLB-best 88 wins, the Phillies likely just need to survive against the Mets and Brewers before getting to their final six games against the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals to be able to lock down their spot in a third straight NLDS.

Teams with the easiest remaining schedules

Kansas City Royals
Record: 80-67, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 93.4%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .495

The Royals dropped two of three to the Yankees to open the week in the Bronx, keeping them 4.5 games back of the Guardians in the AL Central and of a first-round bye.

The good news for the Royals is that they have 12 straight games coming up against the Pirates, Detroit Tigers, Giants, and Nationals, where they should be able to gain some momentum and rattle off some wins.

Kansas City is coming off a stretch of 20 straight games against teams in a playoff spot. It’s encouraging that it was able to 9-11 in that time, picking up series wins over the Guardians and Twins, but it didn’t do much in the way of helping the Royals push for a first-round bye.

The Royals might have the longest odds of any of the top-four teams in the AL postseason picture, but if they are to pull it off, they will need to take advantage of their schedule over the next two weeks.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 87-59, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 100%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .448

Welcome to the “Los Angeles has six games remaining against the Colorado Rockies” portion of this article. Thanks to those six games against Colorado and three against the Miami Marlins, the Dodgers have the second-softest remaining schedule in baseball.

Despite the surging Padres and Diamondbacks, those nine games, combined with three-game series against the Atlanta Braves and San Diego, have the Dodgers poised to capture a third straight NL West title.

With Los Angeles currently sporting the third-best second-half record in baseball, slowly returning players from the injured list, and Shohei Ohtani’s run at history, there might not be a scarier team in baseball over the next few weeks — and unfortunately, the Rockies are in position to be the ones taking the brunt of the Dodgers as they round into postseason form.

Teams surging at the right time

Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres
D-backs: Record: 82-64, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 92.7%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .517
Padres: Record: 82-65, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 93.6%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .481

The Diamondbacks and Padres are in a similar spot. They have the top two records in MLB since the All-Star Break, currently holding down Wild Card spots, and both are still over five games behind the Dodgers.

Similar to the Royals, it would be a longshot for either team to chase down a first-round bye as they would need a Dodgers collapse, which seems increasingly unlikely, to pass the Brewers, and to hold off each other over the final weeks.

Arizona and San Diego close out the regular season with a three-game series against one another, in a matchup that could end up as a Wild Card battle if the standings hold where they are — so even if the Dodgers prove uncatchable, there will be plenty of intrigue in the NL West down the stretch.

Cleveland Guardians
Record: 84-62, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 100%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .509

After going 12-17 in August, the Guardians are 7-3 since the calendar flipped to September, winning a big series over the Royals and sweeping the Chicago White Sox to gain some breathing room at the AL Central.

Yes, sweeping the White Sox isn’t a huge feat at this point, but Cleveland likely just needs to win its division to claim a first-round bye. The Guardians are 6.5 games up on the Astros among division leaders, so by holding off Kansas City — and, to a lesser extent, the Minnesota Twins — Cleveland can guarantee itself a spot in the ALDS.

Lane Thomas, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez have all played a significant role in the Guardians finding their way so far in September, and if their offense can start clicking as it did at the beginning of the season, Cleveland should be able to handle a schedule where its toughest remaining matchups are the Astros and Twins.

Battle for the AL East

New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles
Yankees: Record: 84-62, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 100%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .500
Orioles: Record: 83-64, FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 99.5%, Strength of Schedule remaining: .526

Like the Guardians, all the Yankees or Orioles likely need to do to claim a bye is win the AL East.

While it sounds simple enough, and could end up going either way, New York appears to have the leg up. Not only do the Yankees have a significantly easier schedule the rest of the way, but they have been playing better in the second half than Baltimore has.

Both teams are dealing with shaky bullpens, but the Yankees’ rotation has proven more stable over recent weeks, and while Aaron Judge is in the midst of his longest-homeless streak since 2019, the Orioles’ stars haven’t exactly been rising to the occasion.

New York is set for a final push which pits it against the Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, Pirates, and Orioles. While Baltimore is scheduled to face the Tigers six times, Giants, Yankees, and Twins.

The series from Sept. 24 – 26 between the Yankees and Orioles will be must-see TV, as it could end up deciding who is hosting a Wild Card series and who is hosting the ALDS.