Max Fried Has Been the Savior of the Yankees’ Rotation

The New York Yankees were beset by injuries up and down the roster early this season, some before the regular season even began. One of those was to ace Gerrit Cole. It’s difficult to imagine many MLB teams surviving after losing a starting pitcher of Cole’s caliber.

Thanks to Max Fried, they’ve been surviving just fine.

Just days after the Yankees struck out on re-signing Juan Soto this past winter, they pivoted to Fried. They weren’t bashful about signing the now 31-year-old left-hander to an eight-year, $218 million deal. And it’s a good thing they spent that money.

The Yankees have had injuries piling up in the rotation. The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil and JT Brubaker both joined Cole on the injured list before Opening Day, while Marcus Stroman went on the shelf a month ago.

Having to dig so far into their starting depth could have the Yankees’ season looking very different. Instead, they’re leading the American League East, thanks in large part to Fried’s arrival.

After Cole was lost to Tommy John surgery in March, Fried became the Yankees’ de facto ace. He’s certainly pitching like it.

Heading into Friday’s action, the Yankees’ rotation ranked ninth in MLB with a 3.73 ERA, fifth with a 1.17 WHIP, sixth with 9.03 K/9 and led the majors with a .213 batting average against. It’s not all Fried’s doing, obviously, but he’s a big part of it. He’s pulling along a rotation currently featuring Carlos Rodón (3.29 ERA), Clarke Schmidt (4.73), and Will Warren (4.61).

Max Fried’s Shortest Outing Highlights His Dominance

Fried’s most recent outing on Tuesday wasn’t his sharpest. Facing the Seattle Mariners, who have turned their slow offensive start around, he battled through five innings. He allowed one run on four hits and two walks.

It was his shortest start since Opening Day. Yet, Fried is still having the best start to a season in Yankees history, according to MLB.com’s Josh Kirshenbaum.

Through nine outings, Fried is 6-0 with six quality starts. He has allowed just two earned runs in his last 32 2/3 innings. Tuesday’s 2-1 loss was the first time the Yankees have lost one of his starts. His sparkling MLB-leading 1.11 ERA is the lowest by a Yankees starter through their first nine games of the season, per Kirshenbaum.

He has a stingy 0.94 WHIP, the eighth-best among qualified starters, and third-lowest among those with nine starts. His .190 batting average against ranks ninth.

How is Fried doing it? More importantly, will he continue to pitch at this level? The Yankees hope so, as they really need him to continue leading the rotation.

Don’t Look Now, But Fried is Due for Regression

As good as Fried has been, the regression monster will inevitably come for him. It’s rare for a starting pitcher to finish a year with a sub-2.00 ERA. From 2021-24, only one qualified starter had an ERA below 2.00. That was future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander with a 1.75 ERA with the Houston Astros in 2022.

No offense to Fried, but he’s not Justin Verlander.

We have enough of a track record to know who Fried is at this point in his career. Coming into 2025, Fried had a career 3.07 ERA through eight seasons with the Atlanta Braves, which is still very good but doesn’t forecast a 1.00-something ERA.

He compiled four sub-3.00 ERA seasons in Atlanta, with his lowest ERA in a non-shortened year coming in at 2.48 in 2022. He was also an All-Star that season and finished as the runner-up in NL Cy Young voting.

A mid-2.00s ERA at year’s end would be excellent. The Yankees would no doubt be ecstatic if that’s how Fried’s first season in the Bronx turned out. It would put Fried among the best starters in the game, but that means that some struggles lie ahead.

Underlying Stats Don’t Buy What Fried is Selling, But Does it Matter?

Looking at how Fried has gotten off to this impressive start with a 1.11 ERA might have evaluators scratching their heads.

He has a 3.59 xERA, 3.54 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA.

Fried tends to outperform his xERA on a yearly basis, but not by this much. You can see the wild discrepancy this season compared to his last four years:

Fried doesn’t miss bats like the game’s elite pitchers — his 8.26 K/9 and 22.8% strikeout rates both rank 38th. Both are lower than last season, when he had a 3.25 ERA. He also has a career-low 9.1% swinging strike rate, which ranks 63rd and below the league average of 10.8%.

But perhaps Fried doesn’t need to dominate opposing hitters the same way as other top pitchers in the game. On Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone explained how Fried beats hitters in many ways.

“Versatile,” Boone told YES Network when asked what word comes to mind when Fried takes the mound. “Might be something different on a different day … he’s got so many different ways to beat you. That’s been evident in every start he’s made so far. Just the amount of things he can do on the mound, from movement quality of his pitches to changing speeds and velocity to beating you with secondary to beating you with the fastball to beating you with his athleticism.”

So far, Fried’s 51.6% ground ball rate is paying dividends and is among the best in the majors. Even if his 34% fly ball rate is a career high, it has helped to keep the ball in the yard, with just three home runs against.

Not known as a pitcher to surrender many home runs while playing home games at Truist Park in Atlanta, with a career 0.77 HR/9, pitching at the home run-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium might prove more challenging for Fried as the weather warms up this summer.

There’s no denying that Fried’s start has been phenomenal and is precisely what the Yankees needed. Only time will tell if he can keep it up.