Matt McLain’s Struggling Start and What’s Next for the Reds
It's been a brutal start to the 2025 season for Matt McLain. What will it take to get the Cincinnati Reds second baseman back on track?
Matt McLain‘s young career has been a rollercoaster.
The first-round draft pick and former top prospect burst onto the scene in 2023 with 16 home runs, 14 steals, and a 127 wRC+ in only 89 games. McLain looked the part of a franchise cornerstone and building block for the Cincinnati Reds now and into the future.
Until he didn’t.
After missing all of last season due to injury, many — myself included — used the idea of McLain rejoining the Reds as a reason to why they will be better in 2025. Adding back a young talent with his level of production raised the ceiling and floor of the lineup.
Now, just two months into the season, the Reds have a problem.
McLain has not regained his rookie form but instead has regressed to the point of deserving a demotion. One that’s not reactionary due to small sample frustration, but one that’s warranted after over 200 at-bats of struggling performance.
Stats were taken prior to play on June 2.
What is Going Wrong With Matt McLain?
The McLain situation has surpassed just being a bad slump or slow start returning from injury. While both play a factor to some extent, McLain doesn’t look like he’s only dealing with bad timing.
His .175/.269/.295 slash line and 55 wRC+ are pretty indicative of the player we have seen in the box each night. Poor at-bats and a lack of production look to be weighing on McLain and possibly, although we cannot say for certain, getting in his head.
Manager Terry Francona tried to take some pressure off of McLain by shifting him to the eight and nine spot in the lineup, but the results have not changed. After posting a .539 OPS in the two hole, McLain has put up a .545 OPS while batting eighth and .438 OPS while batting ninth.
McLain has struggled across the board from fastballs to breaking pitches. In 2023, he capitalized on fastballs to the tune of a .316 average, but he has struggled this year batting only .213 against velocity.
It’s a similar story with breaking balls, where his .275 average from 2023 dropped to .149 this season. Off-speed pitches? You guessed it, a measly .105 average this season.
Part of these struggles are likely due to consistently falling behind in counts. Against McLain, pitchers have gotten ahead in the count 15 more times than he has. In those situation, McLain is slashing .139/.150/.177. Although when McLain gets ahead, it hasn’t been much better with a .186/.462/.419 slash line.
Part of this could be philosophy and almost always taking the first pitch. McLain has only swung at the first pitch about 18% of the time but does have a .556 average on those swings, which isn’t surprising considering a batter will likely only swing at pitches in a zone that they can do damage.
However, when he takes the first pitch, his average drops to .166.
On Sunday, we saw McLain strike out on three pitches with strike three being a swinging strike on a fastball high and out of the zone. That’s a pitch I think McLain would typically be able to lay off and one that I think indicates he’s pressing, likely suggesting that this awful stretch is getting to him.
It’s obvious his baseline stats are not what anyone expected. After his rookie season, the expectations were high. But what if I told you the underlying numbers are not far off from what McLain put up in 2023?
Cautionary Tale or Excitement for What’s to Come?
Don’t get me wrong, no matter how you slice it McLain’s numbers are dreadful.
The reason it hurts even more is because of the player we saw in 2023, leading fans to believe a 30/30 All-Star was a reasonable outcome. However, the 2023 version isn’t all sunshine and rainbows. Or, is the 2025 version due for regression to the mean?
| Avg. EV | Barrel% | Hard Hit % | Zone Contact % | K% | Whiff % | BB% | xBA | xSLG | |
| 2023 | 89.3 mph | 10.8% | 42.4% | 79.9% | 28.5% | 28% | 7.7% | .256 | .436 |
| 2025 | 89.7 mph | 9.2% | 45.8% | 81.1% | 31.3% | 28.8% | 10% | .208 | .377 |
You have to look pretty closely at this table to tell the difference between the two seasons.
The contact data is very similar with 2025 actually being better in some cases. The expected numbers tell a story that perhaps McLain was over performing his metrics in 2023 and under performing them in 2025.
In some ways, McLain’s 2023 was maybe better than what we should have expected. Yes, he was a good player, but there are some indicators that he perhaps should not have been seen as that level of player going forward.
Of his 16 home runs from 2023, 12 were off fastballs, and he carried whiff rates of 37% on breaking balls and 43% on off-speed, both marks higher than this season.
Considering a lot of his data is in line with, or better than his breakout rookie season, I do expect some regression toward being a better player. Like most things, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle: Not as good as 2023 but not as bad as 2025.
So much of McLain’s production in 2023 came off hitting fastballs. His .275 average on breaking balls clocked in at a .207 xBA, and he carried an xBA of .164 against off-speed. Although his current .213 average on velocity looks bleak this season, his xBA is.250 and xSLG is .483, almost 100 points higher than his actual slugging percentage.
Okay, I’m finished with the advanced metrics and stats that might make you role your eyes. I know these stats can be a bit wonky, and what happens on the field is the most important part.
The bottom line is this: McLain is a fastball hitter who needs to do damage by getting into fastball counts and taking advantage. So far this season, he hasn’t done that.
What’s the Best Plan Moving Forward?
I don’t have to explain how bad McLain’s numbers are right now. We are no longer in the “let him play through it” category and have shifted to seriously considering demotion to Triple-A.
As a team, the Reds cannot afford to continue to give at-bats to a player with an OPS in the mid-.500s. There must be a higher standard for your team and the other players on the roster, prospect pedigree and past performance aside.
We must remember that a demotion to the minors does not have to be the end of the world or lead to McLain falling into bust conversations. Hell, the Rangers sent Jake Burger to the minors, and the A’s recently did the same for JJ Bleday.
Sometimes a player just needs an opportunity to reset and have a chance to find success. See a few balls sneak through or go over the fence. Remember what it feels like to put your talent on display. A demotion could afford McLain that opportunity.
If demoted, the Reds could play Gavin Lux at second base against lefties and Spencer Steer against righties. A demotion could also coincide with the return of Christian Encarnacion-Strand, or adding a player like Francisco Urbaez for a short period of time.
The Reds owe it to the team to put their best nine players on the field. McLain is not in that group right now but needs to enter it quickly. If a couple weeks in Louisville helps his chances of getting there, then I think they need to give it a shot.
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