Kris Bubic Is Establishing Himself as a Top Arm for the Royals
Kris Bubic is off to a stellar start for the Royals in 2025, quickly making good on the team's decision to convert him back into a starter.
The Kansas City Royals entered the 2025 season on the heels of a brilliant showing from their rotation the year prior.
Their starting staff established themselves as one of the league’s elite units, as they sat third in baseball in ERA (3.55), fourth in both FIP (3.68) and WHIP (1.20), and sixth in BAA (.235).
Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo each finished within the top five in AL Cy Young voting. Veteran Michael Wacha continued to be a starting rock with his third consecutive sub-3.50 ERA season. And Brady Singer looked more like the former first-overall pick many thought he could be coming out of Florida.
But as the offseason raged on and the new season approached, there were valid questions surrounding how strong this rotation would be in 2025.
There wasn’t much doubt in how Ragans would perform, but there were questions present in regard to the rest of the staff. Could Lugo replicate the season of a lifetime he just had? Would Wacha continue his reliable stretch of seasons into his mid-30s? How would they go about replacing Singer’s production in the back of the rotation?
While the verdict is still out on Lugo and Wacha, the Royals seem to be well on their way to answering the last question, thanks to an early stellar performance from an unlikely source.
Kris Bubic has taken advantage of the opportunity he was given this winter to re-join the Royals rotation after spending a year in the bullpen, as he’s quickly establishing himself as one of the most important arms among this group of starters.
Through three starts, Bubic has looked borderline untouchable this season. He’s been one of the league’s best arms in the early going, pitching to the tune of a 0.96 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, .188 BAA and 10.13 K/9.
Stats and rankings taken prior to play on April 16.
How Did We Get Here With Kris Bubic?
Bubic, a Stanford product, was drafted by Kansas City with the 40th overall selection in the 2018 MLB Draft. He built himself up as one of the Royals’ top prospects, with MLB.com ranking him sixth in the organization in 2020.
He made his debut that year in the COVID-shortened season, and in both that year and the year following, he was an average-looking, mid-4.00s ERA arm who was being used primarily as a starter (none of his 29 appearances in 2021 came in relief).
Then, everything began to come crashing down for the southpaw in 2022 after a disastrous season on the mound. His ERA climbed to 5.58, his WHIP rose to 1.70, and his BAA jumped to .300 across 28 outings (27 of which were starts).
Bubic would then seemingly hit rock bottom in the early stages of 2023, after going down just three starts into the campaign with a torn UCL that would require Tommy John surgery.
He’d then make his return to the Royals in July of 2024, this time as a full-time reliever.
He’d thrive in that role, posting a 2.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP. He also demonstrated strikeout abilities that we hadn’t seen from him throughout his big-league career, as his 11.57 K/9 was over 2.50 strikeouts higher than his previous high of 9.00 in 2023.
Then, after the 2024 season ended and the offseason began, reports surfaced from Ken Rosenthal, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo of The Athletic that the Royals planned on moving Bubic back into a starting role, which would help account for the loss of Singer.
And that brings us here with the 27-year-old, fresh off three great starts to begin the 2025 season and currently the team’s best starter on multiple statistical fronts.
All Signs Point to a Solid Year for Bubic
Now, is a sub-1.00 ERA sustainable across an entire season for Bubic? No. That’s no disrespect to Bubic whatsoever though. A sub-1.00 ERA is an unrealistic ask for any starting pitcher.
That being said, if we look deeper into the underlying metrics, they support the notion that Bubic can continue to be a solid contributor for this Royals staff, even if he’s not posting video game numbers.
While he might not be the type of player whose Baseball Savant page is covered in bright red, he’s a well-rounded, well-above-average arm in multiple facets.
From a swing-and-miss standpoint, Bubic sits at the 70th percentile or higher in K-rate (73rd at 27.6%), whiff rate (74th at 30.2%), and chase rate (70th at 31.3%). He also pairs that with an equally impressive 71st-percentile walk rate.
In terms of quality of contact, Bubic may lean more average when it comes to hard-hit and barrel rates, ranking in the 61st and 63rd percentile, respectively, but he makes up for that with an average exit velocity and groundball rate above the 70th percentile.
His 87.1 mph average exit velocity places him in the 76th percentile of league arms, while his 52.1% groundball percentage places him in the 74th percentile.
Then there’s the expected metrics, which, if they come to fruition, should certainly leave the Royals pleased with their decision to transition Bubic back into the rotation. He currently sports an xERA of 3.03 and an xBA of .228.
Finally, from a pitch-mix point of view, Bubic looks dialed in with his main offerings. His three primary pitches — four-seam fastball, changeup, and sweeper — all hold BAAs no higher than .231 and xBAs no higher than .217.
Then, two of those pitches (the changeup and sweeper) hold SLGs no higher than .167 and xSLGs no higher than .252.
He’s doing everything at a more-than-respectable level, and even if his surface-level numbers come back down to earth a bit, he’s proving that he’s more than capable of being a key, quality starter in this staff.
It’s becoming clear that Bubic is worth the trust the Royals brass put in him early in the offseason.
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