Joe Ryan’s Trade Value Continues To Climb as Deadline Nears

Entering the 2025 season, the Minnesota Twins had a rotation worthy of being excited about. It was headlined by ace Pablo López, along with high-caliber complementary arms Bailey Ober and, of course, Joe Ryan.

Ryan was coming off a season that could easily be considered his breakout campaign. He posted a 3.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 0.99 WHIP and .216 BAA over 23 starts.

However, as good as he was last year, Ryan has been able to up the ante, crafting not only a career year, but one that can go toe-to-toe with nearly any starter in baseball.

The Twins, however, have fallen on hard times. Despite the promise that some thought they had before the 2025 season got underway, they sit 51-55, five games out of a Wild Card spot. They are feeling both the injury to Lópe, who’s been on the IL since June 5, and the ineffectiveness of Ober, who pitched to a 5.28 ERA before hitting the IL himself on July 2.

This has left Ryan on his own for much of the season. With the Twins staring down the barrel of their second straight year (and fourth time in their last five campaigns) of missing the postseason, focusing on the future might be in order, and who better to bring in a haul than a reliable ace-caliber arm with control?

Stats and rankings in article updated prior to games on July 29.

Ryan Is Arguably the Most Valuable Arm on the Market

As mentioned already, Ryan has firmly joined the “elite starter” ranks this season. His 2.82 ERA sits 15th in all of baseball, as does his 3.17 FIP. He ranks among the top 10 qualified arms in baseball in both WHIP (fifth at 0.92) and BAA (ninth at .200).

From an underlying metrics perspective, he’s just as strong. He sports a stellar K/BB ratio, ranking fifth in baseball with a 5.71 mark and trailing only Tarik Skubal, Sonny Gray, Zack Wheeler and Spencer Schwellenbach. That is certainly not bad company to be amongst. This is thanks to an 86th percentile K-rate of 28.9% and a 94th percentile walk-rate of 5.1%.

Then, there are the expected metrics that show the success he’s having is sustainable, at least for the most part. Ryan sports a 78th percentile xERA of 3.20 and an 85th percentile xBA of .215.

There’s also the matter of that all-important control left on his contract. With two more arbitration years remaining beyond 2025, Ryan is set to be a financially friendly luxury wherever he winds up pitching.

What’s more, Ryan has only become that much more valuable of a trade asset in recent weeks, with the deadline just days away.

First, he’s taken July by storm. In five starts so far in the month, Ryan has tossed to a sub-3.00 ERA (2.70), his lowest ERA since May, along with a 1.03 WHIP, continuing his streak of sub-1.05 monthly WHIP totals this season.

Then, there’s the fact that the pitching market got thinner this past weekend. Seth Lugo’s extension with Kansas City and subsequent removal from the trade block ensured that every other starter’s value went up a notch.

But think, while Lugo might be following up a Cy Young runner-up season in 2024 with an even more impressive sub-3.00 ERA (2.95) this season, he was still likely a rental with a club option for 2026 that he was likely to decline.

Not only is Ryan pitching better than his AL Central rival, he’s six years younger and, of course, is not a rental.

There are other rental arms on the market like Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and, most prominently, Dylan Cease, but none of those names are outperforming Ryan this season.

Then there are names with control, like former NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. While Alcantara has more pedigree as a big league starter, it’s hard not to look at 6.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .264 BAA and think there’s a lot of risk to take on there. Quite frankly, that’s just not a concern with Ryan at all.

His peaks obviously haven’t been as high as a guy like Alcantara’s, but his valleys haven’t been nearly as low either, as a 4.51 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.17 WHIP and .245 BAA season back in 2023 is his worst campaign on record.

At the center of it all is the fact that the Twins can afford to hold off trading Ryan until they get a deal that they find suitable. GM Derek Falvey told Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic recently that nothing has really materialized in conversations with other teams around Ryan so far.

Then, Ryan himself told Gleeman that he doesn’t see a trade happening and “would like to stay” in Minnesota if it were his choice.

This will certainly drive up the price for Ryan, as teams will have to make it worth the Twins’ while to part ways with their ace.

For all of these reasons, Ryan will understandably grab a haul for Minnesota, should they decide to pull the trigger on a deal for him.

Just Baseball’s Ryan Finkelstein and Jay Staph recently went through what a trade package might look like for the Chicago Cubs to land Ryan. In their mock trade, they had the Cubs sending three top-100 prospects back to Minnesota in catcher Moises Ballesteros (JB No. 54), infielder Jefferson Rojas (JB No. 66), and right-hander Jaxon Wiggins (JB No. 100).

That’s certainly a price worth entertaining for Falvey and the Twins.

Whether or not the Twins brass accepts a deal for Ryan is a completely different story, but it certainly won’t be because no other team picked up the phone and tried.

Ryan has pitched his way to likely being the most coveted name on the trade market, and his value is seemingly growing stronger day after day.