We dropped our lone play yesterday. We took the Rays through the first five innings, and they didn’t score against Kenta Maeda. Ryan Pepiot did his job, but the Rays bats couldn’t score with runners in scoring position.

That’s okay. I’m back with four player props to change it up on this Wednesday.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 27-32 (-6.95 U)

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Landon Knack vs. Jake Irvin

As soon as I looked at the board, this game shot out at me. This matchup just happened last week, and both of these pitchers did well. I’d like to see them do it again, but I’ll bet against that happening.

I was thinking about taking the over, but it’s high. Instead, I’m looking towards a market that’s easier for me to project with the familiarity on both sides: strikeouts.

Jake Irvin will pitch for Washington. He’s had over five strikeouts in three straight games, including six against the Dodgers last week. He’s compiled strikeouts as his average strikeout rate; it’s just that he’s gone six innings in three straight games. With a 15.5 outs line juiced towards the under (-160), combined with the Dodgers familiarity, I don’t see him going six innings again.

Irvin was under this line in 15 of 24 games last season (63%). While his strikeout rate is a solid 23% (52nd percentile), he’s in the bottom third in the league in whiff rate and the bottom quarter of chase rate.

When Irvin did strike out six Dodgers in his last outing, he only got 11 swings and misses in six innings. That’s not even two swings and misses per inning. He got a lot of takes from the Dodgers that ended in strikes. I expect the Dodgers to be more aggressive this time around.

The Dodgers strike out at a high rate against righties, but after seeing him, they must adjust. I’ll tip my cap if Irvin continues to sit down Dodgers bats via the strikeout.

Landon Knack lines up on the other side. He’s not known for his strikeout ability. Last year, he struck out 54 batters in 58.2 innings in triple A. He’s overpriced due to the Dodger effect.

Not only did he not go over this in five solid innings against the Nationals last week, but the Nationals strike out only a little. They are in the better half of the league against right-handed pitching in strikeout rate. Tyler Glasnow, the league leader in strikeouts, only has five against this Nationals team.

The Dodgers also have a history of limiting innings for their young pitchers. Knack went 75 pitches in his first outing, and I don’t see many more than that happening today. Knack racked up four strikeouts last time with only seven swings and misses. His whiff and chase rates after his first start and minor league numbers project for a below-average strikeout rate moving forward.

Facing the Nationals again for the second time, I’ll pay to see if he racks up the strikeouts.

The Pick: Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115) Risk 0.5 Units

The Pick: Landon Knack Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110) Risk 0.55 Units

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Joe Ryan

I want to back Joe Ryan in multiple ways today. The White Sox offense might be the worst offense of the 21st century. On top of that, there is wind blowing in. Joe Ryan is a stud of a pitcher; I think he dominates the White Sox today. The total is 6.5, which tells you how pitcher-friendly the weather will be today.

Ryan’s 2.14 xERA is one of baseball’s best, placing him in the 91st percentile in the league. Considering how Pablo Lopez has pitched so far, he’s the best pitcher in the Twins rotation.

Chris Paddack abused this White Sox team for seven shutout innings with ten strikeouts. Lopez made one mistake, a three-run home run from Eloy Jimenez, and was pulled after 76 pitches in four innings. He still struck out six in those four innings.

Ryan faced the White Sox twice last season, and while it was a different lineup, he averaged 8.5 strikeouts.

This White Sox lineup doesn’t strike out at a bottom five rate, but they do at a bottom ten rate. They get to face a pitcher sitting in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate, 93rd percentile of chase rate, and 60th percentile in whiff rate. Ryan should be in the zone all day long; he is (-200) to go under 1.5 walks.

He should also eat through innings. Ryan’s main issue has been the home run ball this season, but lucky for him, he couldn’t have a better matchup. The White Sox rank dead last in SLG, ISO, and home runs against righties while being in the bottom five in Hard-Hit rate. H

We are getting him at a plus price to go over six innings because he rarely does it. He only did it five times in 30 starts last year. This isn’t just an average start; this is the perfect matchup with the wind blowing in.

In those two starts against the White Sox, he pitched six innings both times. He goes into the seventh today and could be in line for a complete-game shutout.

This is the worst offense in baseball by a mile. Joe Ryan will dominate them.

The Pick: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110) Risk 0.55 Units

The Pick: Joe Ryan Over 18.5 Pitching Outs (+140) Risk 0.5 Units

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