Will Jackson Merrill Earn the Padres a Bonus Draft Pick?

Around this time last year, I wrote about Bobby Witt Jr. and the possibility that he could earn the Royals an extra draft pick with an MVP-finalist campaign in 2024.

Lo and behold, Witt finished runner-up to Aaron Judge in AL MVP voting last year, earning all 30 second-place votes. Thus, by the rules of the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), the Royals will get to make an additional selection between the first round and the compensatory round. This year, that will be pick no. 28 overall.

With his 10-win season, Witt became the first non-rookie to earn his team a bonus draft pick through the PPI. Previously, Julio Rodríguez, Corbin Carroll, and Gunnar Henderson had gained extra picks for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Orioles, respectively, by winning Rookie of the Year honors.

This got me wondering who the next non-rookie to earn his team a PPI pick could be. As a reminder, here are the criteria:

If a PPI-eligible player (a) accrues a full year of service time in his rookie season and (b) goes on to win Rookie of the Year or finish top-three in MVP or Cy Young voting before he would have qualified for arbitration, his team will get an extra draft pick the following summer. 

To be eligible for the PPI, a player must “appear on at least two of the three Top 100 Prospect rankings released by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and ESPN” (per MLB.com). A player can only earn the PPI for the team with which he made his MLB debut, and a player can only earn the PPI for his team once. A player is not eligible for the PPI if he received a multi-year contract prior to making his debut. Finally, foreign professionals, namely players from the KBO and NPB, are not eligible.

“Can Bobby Witt Jr. Bag an Extra Draft Pick for the Royals?”

With those criteria in mind, here is the full list of second and third-year players eligible for the PPI in 2025, courtesy of MiLB.com:

Player	Games Played	Career fWAR to Date	2025 Projected fWAR (FGDC)
Jackson Merrill	156	5.3	4.9
Anthony Volpe	319	5.3	3.9
Ezequiel Tovar	319	5.2	3.2
Francisco Alvarez	228	5.0	3.6
Austin Wells	134	3.8	3.3
Colton Cowser	179	3.6	3.1
Josh Jung	194	3.2	2.3
Wyatt Langford	134	2.9	4.0
Masyn Winn	187	2.8	3.5
Triston Casas	222	2.7	2.2
Logan O’Hoppe	192	2.4	2.1
Evan Carter	68	1.3	2.3
Ceddanne Rafaela	180	0.9	1.5
Nolan Schanuel	176	0.7	1.4
Hunter Brown	69	5.5	2.8
Jared Jones	22	1.8	2.4
Kyle Harrison	31	0.7	1.2
Ken Waldichuk	42	0.1	N/A
Cade Cavalli	1	0.1	0.8

There are plenty of talented players on the list above, but it’s not hard to identify the one with the best chance to finish top-three in MVP or Cy Young voting.

Padres All-Star Jackson Merrill ranks first among eligible players in career fWAR, despite having played just one season in the majors. He also ranks first in projected fWAR, according to FanGraphs Depth Charts.

Can Merrill follow in Witt’s footsteps and earn the Padres a PPI pick in 2025?

Is Merrill the Next Witt?

Jackson Merrill finished seventh among NL position players in fWAR last season. He finished ninth in NL MVP voting. So, he has some work to do if he’s going to finish as an MVP finalist in 2025.

Of course, the same was true for Witt at this time last year. The shortstop finished fourth among AL position players in fWAR in 2023. He came in seventh place for AL MVP.

Take a look at how Merrill’s 2024 compares to Witt’s breakout season the year before. All things considered, they were very similar performances:

Player	G	PA	HR	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	xwOBA	wRC+	fWAR
2023 Bobby Witt Jr.	158	694	30	96	49	5.8%	17.4%	.369	114	5.8
2024 Jackson Merrill	156	593	24	90	16	4.9%	17.0%	.372	130	5.3

What’s more, look at how close Merrill’s projections for 2025 are to Witt’s projections entering the 2024 campaign:

Player	ZiPS WAR	ZiPS WAR Rank	Steamer WAR	Steamer WAR Rank
Witt’s 2024 Projections	4.3	13th (AL)	4.8	11th (AL)
Merrill’s 2025 Projections	4.4	11th (NL)	4.8	11th (NL)

The fact that Witt improved so much and outperformed his projections so dramatically is hardly proof that Merrill will do the same. Not only was Witt a little older and more experienced than Merrill is now, but Witt was always the more highly regarded prospect.

Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton gave Merrill a 60+ FV before he debuted. That’s an All-Star ceiling. But two years before that, Aram gave Witt a 70+ FV. That’s perennial MVP upside.

Still, the parallels between the two are fascinating. They’re both five-tool studs who add value at the plate, in the field, and on the bases. If Witt can go from a five-win player to an MVP threat, who’s to say Merrill can’t do the same?

And if he does, the Padres will be extremely grateful.

Not only would an MVP-caliber season from Merrill help San Diego make up for the tough losses of Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim, but it would also help to replenish one of the weakest farm systems in the league.

The Padres came in at no. 25 on Keith Law’s most recent ranking of MLB farm systems. Baseball America had them even lower, at no. 26. Needless to say, this is a team that could badly use another high draft pick next summer.

Jackson Merrill’s MVP (and PPI) Candidacy

Jackson Merrill still has a lot to prove before he’s a top contender in the NL MVP conversation.

That said, how many NL players would you confidently say are stronger MVP candidates than Merrill? By my count, it’s only four: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor.

Am I ready to say that Merrrill will be a better player than Elly De La Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, William Contreras, Fernando Tatis Jr., or Austin Riley?

No. Definitely not. But I wouldn’t be shocked if he were, either.

Merrill has all the talent he needs to finish top-three in NL MVP voting and earn the Padres a PPI draft pick in the process. Whether or not he can put it all together will be a major storyline worth following in 2025.