How the Blue Jays Will Be Used as Leverage Once Again

The 2024-25 MLB offseason is going to be highlighted most by a weak free-agent class that’s awfully top-heavy. Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames and Alex Bregman are the best of the bunch, with a whole lot of second-tier players following them on the list.

Soto is particularly noteworthy, as he’s widely expected to sign the second-largest contract in MLB history this winter.

It’s difficult not to see how Soto would fit on virtually any club in the game. He’s still only 26 years old and has already made four All-Star Games, won five Silver Sluggers and finished top-10 in MVP voting four times. Oh, and he’s a former batting champion with a World Series ring, too.

The odds of Soto leaving the Yankees in favor of another club feel pretty low, but there’s a chance. The club hasn’t exactly made it a secret that they want him back in their lineup alongside Aaron Judge for perhaps the rest of both of their careers.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be competition. Early on in the offseason, the Boston Red Sox have met with Soto and his representation, while the New York Mets are also on the list of teams with strong interest in the once-in-a-lifetime talent.

The Tampa Bay Rays have also shown interest, as have the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Shohei Ohtani Incident

Right around this time last year, Shohei Ohtani was the best-available free agent on the market. Half the league was in hot pursuit of the two-way superstar, but there were a handful of clubs that had separated themselves from the rest.

At one point, the “final four” were reported to be the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels, Chicago Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays. Rumors were swirling and it certainly didn’t help that social media posts had Ohtani on a plane heading to Toronto, apparently to finalize his contract with the Blue Jays.

We all know how this wound up shaking out, with Ohtani heading to the Dodgers on a record-shattering contract, but there was a period of time where Blue Jays fans were led to believe that Ohtani was joining their team.

There’s little doubt that Ohtani did like what he saw from the Blue Jays during their private meetings, but in the end, the Blue Jays were nothing more than leverage in the superstar’s conversations with the Dodgers.

In all likelihood, what happened was the Blue Jays made an aggressive, perhaps “final” offer, then Ohtani’s representation gave the Dodgers one last shot at topping that. Here we sit now, with Ohtani a World Series Champion and likely MVP in his first season on the Dodgers. That decision seemed to work out just fine, but him seemingly being so close to signing in Toronto comes with some long-term ramifications for the organization that missed out.

How History May Repeat Itself With Soto

This time around, it’s Juan Soto’s turn to be the god amongst men in the free agent class. In what could be his only year on the Yankees, Soto led the AL in runs scored while also hitting a career-high 41 home runs and driving in 109 runs. Once again, he drew more walks (129) than strikeouts (119) while posting a cool .989 OPS and 178 OPS+.

It’s tough not to see how he’s the best-available option on the market. In hauntingly familiar fashion, the Blue Jays are in pursuit of Soto this offseason as they look to put together a championship-contending team in the short- and long-term. While the club finished last in the AL East in 2024, their hope is that an addition of Soto would be enough to propel them to the top of the standings for years to come.

With such stiff competition, this is being set up to look just like the Ohtani situation last winter. The Blue Jays were reportedly the first team to meet with Soto, but they simply don’t offer the same amount of appeal as… basically any of the other interested parties.

It’s difficult to see how the Blue Jays will end up being the ones to sign a player like Soto (or even Fried or Bregman) when they’re coming off of a last-place finish in their division, they have one of the very worst farm systems in baseball and they don’t have a solid core locked up for the future.

That’s not to say that the Blue Jays aren’t going to lay it all on the line and make a significant offer to Soto, but they are clearly making things harder on themselves.

Blue Jays ownership has the financial flexibility to make an Ohtani- or Soto-esque splash, of that there is no doubt. The odds of them making that franchise-altering offer are high, but in the end there simply aren’t enough reasons for an MVP-caliber player like Soto to pick Toronto over the likes of the Yankees or Mets, who are set up for years of playoff contention.

Soto’s going to be paid handsomely regardless of where he signs, but you’d have to imagine he’d prefer to play on a contending team rather than one that could be heading for a rebuild.

How the Blue Jays Stack up Against Their Top Competition

As of now, the Blue Jays have a big-league roster that’s “just okay,” and they need about 10 players to have bounce-backs in 2025 to form a competitive team. The Guerrero-Bichette core offers some hope, but there’s not much else.

Let’s check out the teams they’re going to try and outbid this winter.

• Yankees: Just made the World Series. Is there anything else to say? Familiarity is an underrated aspect of a free agent’s journey, so the Yankees should be viewed as the favorite simply because they love Soto and Soto loves them. They have a deep big league roster and deep pockets that can fill any roster hole on the open market.

• Mets: Firmly in the middle of their contention window, with an owner of their own that’s always willing to spend. A Lindor-Soto pairing would be similar to the one Soto had with Judge, and the Mets’ farm system sat 13th in MLB Pipeline’s latest ranking. This is another organization that’s set up for long-term success.

• Rays: Sure, the fit feels weird. That’s because it is. The Rays have one of the smallest markets in baseball but they’re the league’s best at player development. There’s little to no chance this is the team that’ll come away with Soto, but they always have a knack for finding their way to a playoff run, which has to mean something.

• Red Sox: Already met with Soto and reportedly left him feeling impressed with what they’ve got to offer. Boston is another big spender and they’ve got room around their roster for a few high-end upgrades this winter, including DH, where Soto would fit nicely. Since Soto would sign a long-term contract, he’d ultimately be surrounded by many of the Red Sox’s top prospects – and there are several noteworthy ones.

Vladdy Extension Makes All the Difference

We’ll touch on how badly the Blue Jays need to prove they mean business this offseason shortly. The very top thing on their to-do list should be inking Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a well-deserved contract extension that’ll keep him in Toronto through the end of his career.

Guerrero, 25, just wrapped up one of the best seasons of his six-year career. He recorded 44 doubles while hitting 30 home runs and driving in 103 runs across 159 games. His 166 OPS+ came just one point short of the 167 he had back in 2021 when he finished runner-up in the AL MVP voting to Ohtani.

Guerrero’s second-half numbers were ridiculous this past season, too. In that stretch of 63 games, he finished first in the AL in batting average; second in runs scored, OBP, SLG and wRC+; and third in RBI. He’s ready to be paid.

Soto and Guerrero are lifelong friends, so the Blue Jays have that knowledge in their back pocket. If Guerrero gets locked up in the foreseeable future, that’d be a huge sign from the organization that they’re serious about their intentions to improve their record.

It’s going to be hard to convince free agents that the Blue Jays have serious intentions to contend in 2025 without a contract in hand for Guerrero. They’ve showed in the past that they’re capable of spending big (see: George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios deals), but this time around things are different. The Blue Jays already have this superstar on their roster, now it’s a matter of keeping him and extending that competitive window.

Blue Jays Must Prove They’re in it to Win it

This ties in with the whole “Guerrero extension” thing, but there’s so much more to it. After their relievers posted the second-highest bullpen ERA in baseball last season, there are multiple spots in the Blue Jays’ pen up for grabs. In all reality, the Blue Jays could use as many as four new faces in their relief-pitching corps.

It doesn’t stop there, though. Rumor has it, the club would prefer to sign a starting pitcher this winter while shifting Yariel Rodriguez to the bullpen. Make that two roster spots in need of a makeover.

There’s also a lack of thump in their lineup. A signing of Soto would surely address that, but the argument could be made that two power-hitting bats need to be brought into this lineup. The to-do list grows.

At various points last winter, the Blue Jays had their eyes on Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson. In the end, their offseason was highlighted by the signings of Kevin Kiermaier, Justin Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Rodriguez. Unfortunately, these moves just weren’t enough.

This time around, the Blue Jays need to do more. With a long list of roster needs, the fact of the matter is that they need to try harder to improve their roster before Bichette and/or Guerrero move along. If there’s any hope for them to land a big fish like Soto, they’ll need to extend Guerrero and sharpen up the rest of their roster first in order to show that they truly mean business.