How Much Will it Cost to Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

The 2025 season marks ten years since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. joined the Toronto Blue Jays as an international free agent, and it could also mark his last season wearing their uniform. Free agency is looming for the 25-year-old slugger, forcing Toronto to work out a contract extension soon or risk losing him to the highest bidder next offseason — and time is running out.

In December, Guerrero told the Spanish-language Abriendo El Podcast that he plans to cut off extension talks once spring training starts. Position players — including Guerrero — are due to report to their respective spring training camps on February 17, meaning Toronto may have mere days left to get a suitable deal on the table.

Widely considered to be the face of the Blue Jays, Guerrero is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having posted an incredible .323/.396/.544 line and 166 OPS+ with 30 home runs and 103 RBI in 697 plate appearances last year. Along with his fourth consecutive All-Star selection, his impressive 2024 campaign earned him his second Silver Slugger Award and second All-MLB First Team selection, putting the first baseman in an extremely strong position to be negotiating a contract extension.

So, where does Guerrero’s market value sit with one season until free agency, and what could an extension with the Blue Jays look like?

Talent Worth Paying For

The son of baseball Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and nephew of former MLB player Wilton Guerrero, Guerrero Jr. was the top-ranked international free agent by Baseball America and the fourth-ranked by MLB.com when he became eligible for free agency in 2015. He signed with the Blue Jays on July 2 at the age of 16, and it didn’t take long for him to establish himself as the organization’s player to watch.

Guerrero made his professional debut with the Blue Jays’ Advanced Rookie affiliate in July 2016, and by the start of the 2017 season, he was MLB Pipeline’s third-ranked prospect at third base. In 276 plate appearances split between Class-A (now Single-A) and Advanced-A (now High-A) in 2017, Guerrero hit .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs, 76 RBI, and more walks (76) than strikeouts (62), earning a selection to the All-Star Futures Game and the title of ESPN’s Prospect of the Year.

Going into the 2018 season, both MLB.com and Baseball America ranked Guerrero as the top prospect in the Blue Jays organization, and a year later, he was the top-ranked prospect in all of MLB. He made his big league debut with Toronto on April 26, 2019, and on May 11, Guerrero hit his first major league home run to become the youngest player to hit a home run in Blue Jays history (20 years, 59 days). Guerrero finished his rookie season with a .272/.339/.433 line, 15 home runs, and 69 RBI in 514 plate appearances, having hit the ball with the highest exit velocity (118.9 mph) of all balls hit in the majors that year.

Still, if there was any question about Guerrero’s status as a superstar, he certainly left no doubt in 2021.

Having transitioned to playing first base the season prior, Guerrero was selected to the 2021 All-Star Game as the American League’s starting first baseman, and won the game’s MVP Award to become the first Blue Jays player, first Canadian citizen, and youngest player (22 years, 119 days) in history to receive the honor. He finished the season having slashed .311/.401/.601 with a 167 OPS+, 48 home runs, and 111 RBI in 698 plate appearances, leading MLB in runs scored (123) and total bases (363), and tying the Kansas City Royals’ Salvador Pérez for the most home runs. For his incredible campaign, Guerrero won the AL Hank Aaron Award and his first Silver Slugger Award, and finished second in AL MVP voting, only behind the Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani.

Guerrero’s stats dipped over the next two seasons, but the first baseman’s 133 OPS+ in 2022 and 116 OPS+ in 2023 were still respectable enough to earn him All-Star selections, while his elite fielding in 2022 won him a Gold Glove Award. Still, the first baseman’s 2024 campaign certainly served as any sort of comeback season he may have needed, and now entering his final year of club control, Guerrero’s market value is as high as ever.

How Much Will it Cost to Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Last winter, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million deal, marking the largest contract in professional sports history at the time. Just a year later, that record was broken when the New York Mets signed slugger Juan Soto to an incredible 15-year, $765 million deal on December 11, 2024. Unless he agrees to a contract extension beforehand, Guerrero will be the top free agent on the market next offseason, and with Ohtani and Soto having set the benchmark for mega-deals, an astronomical payday is almost certain.

So what would Toronto need to offer the four-time All-Star to convince him not to test free agency next winter? Well, a lot more than they’ve offered so far.

In December, Guerrero told the Abriendo El Podcast that the Blue Jays had recently offered a $340 million contract, which he described as “not even close to what we are looking for.”

“If you see the numbers between Soto and me, in some of them Soto has an advantage over me,” Guerrero said, according to translation by Sportsnet. “So, my (agent) compared the numbers and he came to a point, and they haven’t got to that point.”

While the 25-year-old obviously didn’t reveal an exact figure he’s looking for, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal predicts it’ll be higher than many may expect, especially since Soto’s recent deal “raises the bar for elite hitters.”

“Soto is a bigger talent than Guerrero, with a more consistent track record,” Rosenthal wrote on December 19. “But Guerrero, too, is an offensive force… A $400 million deal would be barely half of Soto’s. A deal in the $500 million to $600 million range, excessive as it might sound to the average fan, probably is more realistic.”

Over the last few winters, it’s become very normal to see free agent contracts locking down players until their age-39 or even age-40 seasons. From Soto’s 15-year deal with the Dodgers and Aaron Judge’s nine-year contract with the New York Yankees, to Trea Turner’s 11-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies and Manny Machado’s 11-year contract with the San Diego Padres, long-term deals to keep a player for the remainder of his career have become quite commonplace.

Keeping Guerrero until he’s 39 would require a 14-year deal starting in 2025, or a 13-year deal starting in 2026. Spotrac estimates he’ll land a contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $35.6 million, but considering Ohtani’s AAV is $70 million and Soto’s is $51 million, that seems conservative, even if Guerrero isn’t at their level.

If Guerrero settles for an AAV of $40 million (which definitely feels low), a 14-year contract extension would come out at $560 million, and even a 13-year deal would run the Blue Jays to well over half a billion dollars. Put his AAV up to $45 million, and a 14-year deal is $630 million.

Regardless of the exact numbers, Guerrero can count on a major pay day coming his way, and with position players reporting to spring training this week (triggering the first baseman’s apparent deadline for negotiations), the Blue Jays don’t have long to decide what they’re doing. Guerrero has reiterated multiple times that he’d love to stay in Toronto, but at the end of the day, money talks. Now it’s just up to the Blue Jays to work out what the face of their franchise is worth.