Extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Should Top Blue Jays Priority List

The Toronto Blue Jays are winding down a rough 2024 season, as the club sits at the bottom of the AL East and are shades of the club that started the campaign after a selloff at the trade deadline. Long gone are the veterans who were with the club on Opening Day and it’s now time for the prospects and rookies to shine as the organization turns its attention to the 2025 season.

The Blue Jays are in an awkward phase – the club hasn’t accomplished much since the 2015 and 2016 playoff runs. The organization continues to look for answers while the core group from the rebuilding days continues to inch closer and closer to free agency.

One of the first dominoes fell when the Jays designated Cavan Biggio for assignment a few months ago and another core piece was dealt at the trade deadline in Danny Jansen. With those two no longer in the picture, the attention now turns to Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with both players eligible for free agency following next season amongst a host of others such as Chris Bassitt and Jordan Romano.

Toronto is one organization that has not fully embraced the ‘extend young stars’ philosophy sweeping the big leagues in recent years despite having two prime candidates in Bichette and Guerrero.

Only José Berríos has been the lucky one to earn an internal extension and he was an implant from the 2021 trade deadline, as the Jays have kicked the tires on extension talks with their core players but have yet to put pen to paper.

With Bichette and Guerrero knocking on the door of free agency this winter, if the front office wants to keep either player around for the long haul, the time is now to get a deal done.

Blue Jays, Guerrero Must Find Middle Ground

Ask any Blue Jays fan which player they would like to see in a Toronto uniform for the long haul and Guerrero is the winner in that poll. The Montreal-born, Dominican-raised slugger has been a mainstay on the roster since being called up in 2019 and a fan favourite for his fun demeanor and the ability to hit a baseball a mile away with a quick swing of the bat.

Through six seasons in the big leagues, Guerrero has suited up in 804 games and has amassed a .287/.362/.500 line with a .862 OPS. The righty batter has collected 158 home runs and 498 RBI so far and boasts a 20.7 bWAR while splitting time at third base and first base early in his career.

Since 2019, Guerrero ranks 36th in terms of fWAR (16.3) and ranks even higher in respective offensive categories, such as wRC+ (137 – 10th), RBI (10th), average (12th), home runs (13th), SLG (17th), runs (464 – 17th), and ISO (.214 – 29th). His best season so far came in 2021, when he finished just behind Shoehi Ohtani in the AL MVP vote and led the AL in OBP (.401), SLG (.601), OPS (1.002), and OPS+ (167) while leading the league with 123 runs and tying Salvador Perez for the home run lead total (48).

While he started the season on a sour note, Guerrero has been one of the most dominant hitters since the All-Star break and has upped his stats to a similar pace fans saw back in 2024. Entering last night’s game, the 25-year-old has posted a .322/.395/.551 slash line with 40 doubles, 28 home runs, and 94 RBIs with 63 walks and a 166 OPS+ – sitting in the upper echelon of hitters since returning from the Midsummer Classic.

For Guerrero, the biggest drawback of extension talks has been consistency, as the first baseman has not always been the elite hitter many pegged him to be.

Last season, the Blue Jays slugger lost some power and clubbed only 26 homers en route to a .788 OPS – his lowest total since his abbreviated rookie campaign. He struggled mightily to raise the ball and while he still collected 30 doubles and 94 RBIs, no small feat by any means, it was a far cry from the MVP campaign many expect from the four-time All-Star given what he is capable of – evident by his 2021 campaign. A step back defensively didn’t help matters and the narrative changed to focusing on extending Bichette instead, who collected 175 hits and a .814 OPS while battling a knee injury halfway through the year.

The other knock on the long-term extension talks is the position Guerrero plays, as first basemen have historically not inked the most salary-heavy contracts compared to other premier positions like shortstop or centre field. The highest-paid first baseman right now is Bryce Harper, who inked a 13-year, $330 million deal in 2019 and wasn’t playing first base at the time of the signing. Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman slots in at second, earning $27 million this season, while Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals) and Matt Olson (Braves) slot behind him at $26 million and $22 million respectively.

Avoid heading into next season without a deal for Guerrero

While the comparison between Guerrero and the others mentioned above can be debated for days, and I by no means can throw out any salary prediction number, especially since Guerrero will be just 26 years old next winter, one situation to monitor is Pete Alonso and his upcoming free agency this offseason. There is a good chance he could set the market for the likes of Guerrero and others in terms of ‘power-hitting first baseman’ and could provide some stepping stones for where the Blue Jays and Guerrero can find some middle ground on a long-term deal.

Both sides have mentioned the possibility of a deal and Guerrero continues to fan the flames regarding his want to remain in Toronto for his career, and if the two sides want to make that a reality, it needs to happen this winter.

The Blue Jays cannot enter next season without an extension for their star slugger if they want to keep him around and they need to eliminate any potential thought related to him hitting the open market in 2025.

The longer they wait to get his signature on a contract, the more difficult it will be to pry him away from free agency and any potential big market teams from prying him away from playing at the Rogers Centre for the next decade.