The Guardians are in an Odd Place Heading Into 2025

Give the Cleveland Guardians credit. They have not been afraid to shake up the roster with trades this offseason.

The first swap was a little unexpected. It came during the winter meetings when the Guardians shipped three-time Gold Glover Andres Gimenez to the Blue Jays for a package that included a fellow infielder in Spencer Horwitz, who was promptly flipped to the Pirates for a trio of pitchers.

The other trade was less surprising. First baseman Josh Naylor, thought to be a trade candidate based on the price tag for his final arbitration year, was sent to the Diamondbacks in exchange for former 33rd overall pick, pitcher Slade Cecconi.

The trades accomplished a couple different goals for the team. It shed payroll, which has often been a priority for Cleveland. It also opened up playing time for some of their younger, talented players.

And yet, are the reigning AL Central champions better now than they were before the trade? Are they even the same? For a team that is coming off a 92-win season, it’s hard to tell what to make of the Guardians going into the upcoming season.

The Guardians are in an odd place heading into 2025

The Guardians were as strong a division winner as any in 2024, finishing second in the AL with 92 wins and tying for fourth best run differential in their league at +87. But there were definitely areas for improvement in the quest for a repeat division title.

Even with a solid run differential, the Cleveland offense was average at best. Their 4.37 runs per game were 14th in MLB, their .702 OPS tied for 17th, and their .238 team batting average was good for 22nd.

Meanwhile, the starting rotation was much lower than average. Guardians starters combined for a 4.40 ERA in 805 innings, the 7th highest mark in MLB. They also gave up a .250 average to opposing batters, tied for 10th highest in the league.

Of course you can’t talk about the bad without pointing out the good. That starts with the bullpen, arguably the best in all of baseball. Their combined 2.57 ERA was tops in MLB by nearly half a run, as was their .203 batting average against.

Cleveland was also a great team on the base paths, tying for 5th in MLB with 148 stolen bases. You can’t forget about defense either, where as a team they finished in the top 10 in both outs above average (10) and defensive runs saved (89). And that’s where some of the weird feelings about the Guardians’ current situation begin.

For a team that values baserunning and defense, letting Gimenez go is a move that seems counterproductive. His multiple Gold Glove seasons have already been mentioned, but he also stole 30 bases in each of the last two seasons.

Top 10 prospect Juan Brito seems most likely to eventually take over Gimenez’s second base position. But while he be somewhat of an upgrade on offense, he brings more average speed and defense, those two areas that the team has valued.

While Naylor didn’t help as much in either of those two areas, he certainly was a run producer, putting up an OPS+ of 118 or better in each of the last three seasons and going for 31 homers and 108 RBIs last year alone.

What Pieces are Left?

The Guardians have youngsters like Kyle Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel who can help fill in now that Naylor is gone and also signed Carlos Santana in free agency to play the position. Still, for a team that was average on offense, that’s a lot of production to lose.

And speaking of lost production, Cleveland will be missing even more of that as late-season hero David Fry had surgery in the offseason that will cause him to miss the beginning of the 2025 season. When he does come back, it’ll be only for DH duties.

As for that below average rotation, things are set to look very similar to last year. Tanner Bibee, Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, and Triston McKenzie, who combined for a 4.06 ERA in 92 starts in 2024, all appear ready to return to the rotation in 2025.

Shane Bieber will join them at some point during the season after being brought back during the offseason. But he will be coming off Tommy John surgery, so it’s hard to know just how effective he’ll be. Luis Ortiz, acquired in the Horwitz trade, could also help, though he has a career 4.05 ERA in 34 career starts.

The big wild-card for the Guardians will be youth. Per Baseball Reference, Cleveland batters had the lowest average age in all of MLB in 2024 at 26.1 years old while their pitchers were tied for fourth youngest at 27.7. That sets the team up very well for the future, but is it enough to account for the hits to the roster in 2025?

Maybe the youth movement continues to move forward and the Guardians repeat as AL Central champs. Or maybe many of the youngsters act their age and Cleveland takes a step back after failing to improve their weaknesses from 2024, and in some cases made them worse. Either way, it just has them in a weird place as 2025 approaches.