Free Agents Who Earned a Raise With Their Performance in 2024

As the playoffs continue with just four teams remaining, many baseball fans, including myself, have begun to shift their thoughts to the offseason and free agency. For fanbases of the 26 eliminated teams, this brings excitement as we start to consider ways in which every team can improve this winter.

While teams try to improve, players and their representatives are working to get paid. For some, the market will dictate contracts due to a rougher 2024 season than said players expected. For others, their performance this season significantly grew their market.

Track record is still important, but drastically elevating one’s play in a contract year can entirely shift the market for many players. There are 10 impending free agents who stick out to me as ones who earned a substantive bump in the contract they’ll sign this winter after a big season.

These aren’t the top free agents on the entire market, but they’ll certainly be more sought-after and earn larger deals than they would have a year ago.

Anthony Santander

While he was already a productive piece in Baltimore the past two seasons, I don’t think anyone expected Santander to finish third in MLB with 44 home runs. He was the second-best hitter in a talented Orioles lineup this year, and he’s set to cash in.

He made $11.7 million in his final year under contract with the Orioles and should get a huge bump as he enters the offseason at just 29 years old as one of the top power bats available. His estimated value per FanGraphs in 2024 was $26.5 million. He checked in at $20.6 million in 2023.

However, Santander’s wRC+ was just 129, and he got on base at only a .308 clip which does reduce his offensive impact despite the elite power numbers. Given that his next contract will likely take him through his mid-30s, his estimated market value via Spotrac is a five-year, $88 million deal.

With many contending teams needing power impact in their lineup (as we have seen this postseason), there’s reason to believe Santander will reach the $100 million mark and possibly even slightly beyond. Before this year, he would not have been near that level.

Sean Manaea

I’m not sure there is a pitcher in baseball right now with a bigger up arrow next to his name than Sean Manaea a.k.a Chris Sale light. After signing a prove-it deal with the Mets this winter, Manaea has not only changed his free agent market but frankly his career.

He has become the ace of the Mets rotation and is proving that once again in the postseason. After signing with New York for just $14 million, Manaea holds a player option for $13.5 million that will be quickly declined. He allowed just a .201 batting average and posted an ERA of 3.47 with a 1.08 WHIP which positions him to sign a large multi-year deal.

His FanGraphs estimated value was $22.2 million this year, but Spotrac sets his market value at just a two-year, $29 million contract. That does not factor in his postseason performance though and frankly is just way lower than what I would expect.

The Mets seem likely to retain Manaea as they took a shot on him and he was able to make it happen in a huge way, but he’s due for a large bump from his current $14 million AAV. I’d expect him to get at least three years, possibly four, and something around $20-25 million a year.

Jurickson Profar

One of the cooler stories on this list features a player who was once a top prospect in baseball but had really yet to reach his upside aside from a solid 2018 season.

After being released by Colorado midseason last year, Profar finished the year back in San Diego and did well in a few games. The Padres signed him to a one-year, $1 million deal as essentially a flyer.

Profar returned possibly more value based on his contract than anyone else on this list. He finished the season with an .839 OPS, which led qualified Padres hitters, and a 139 wRC+. Both are career-highs by a mile.

He’s due for a huge pay bump, but it does seem likely he sticks in San Diego given that the only recent success in his career has occurred there. His market value on Spotrac is listed as two years and $25 million, which does seem pretty realistic for Profar who will enter next season at 32 years old with a less-than-ideal track record.

However, all of his advanced metrics are excellent, as he hit the ball harder than ever this season while walking over 10% of the time and striking out at just a 15% mark. He’s due to get paid and would be a big loss for San Diego if he signs elsewhere.

Jack Flaherty

After a tough 2023 split between St. Louis and Baltimore, Flaherty signed a one-year, $14 million deal with Detroit to prove himself. He did just that, as he shined for the Tigers in the first half and was ultimately dealt to the Dodgers at the deadline.

While Detroit would have loved to have him in the postseason, they didn’t expect to be competing when they made the move. He has continued to go off in the postseason as the ace of the Dodgers’ staff. His 3.17 ERA, 3.2 WAR, and 10.78 K/9 in the regular season are all the highest he has posted since his All-MLB Second Team campaign in 2019.

He’s not in the same tier as the likes of Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell, but Flaherty should get a similar amount to Sean Manaea and possibly even more. His Spotrac market value contract is a three-year, $60 million deal, and I think that’s just about the floor for his deal.

Given the free agent market for starting pitchers, I would not be surprised to see Flaherty get a fourth or fifth year as he’s only 29 years old. I think somewhere in the $18-$22 million range in terms of AAV seems right.

Teoscar Hernández

Compared to most of these players, Hernández may not receive much of a bump in terms of AAV, but he has certainly earned a longer-term deal. He signed a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers to further bolster an insane lineup after a fairly disappointing 2023.

Hernández has done just that as one of the most pivotal pieces in LA this season. He finished the season with an .840 OPS and 33 home runs for the Dodgers while playing nearly every day between left and right field. He’ll now be set to get somewhere around the same amount of money on a yearly basis across multiple years.

With a Spotrac market value of $71 million over three years, Hernández earned himself that multi-year deal with such a strong 2024. He’ll be one of the most sought-after outfielders on the market, possibly second to just Juan Soto, and the Dodgers will surely try to retain him.

Tanner Scott

More than ever, baseball has shifted towards higher bullpen usage this postseason, and that will certainly help the market for the elite relief arms available in free agency. Scott was dealt to San Diego for a haul at the trade deadline and continued to be a force down the stretch and in the postseason.

The Padres would love to retain him to maintain an elite trio in the back of their bullpen with Robert Suarez and Jason Adam, but many teams will be after Scott. He made just $5.7 million this year but posted a 1.75 ERA and was an even better all-around pitcher the year prior. He’s likely to get the largest deal of any reliever this winter.

Spotrac projects his value as a four-year, $65.5 million deal. That feels a bit steep at first glance, but there’s really no reason he shouldn’t get something in that range. Raisel Iglesias signed for four years and $58 million after 2021, and Scott’s potential deal three years later should be at or above that, honestly.

He’s set to cash in big time and will be one of the most heavily pursued free agents this winter.

Tyler O’Neill

One of the most fascinating profiles in baseball had a quietly excellent year after playing his last year of arbitration with the Red Sox. He made $5.85 million in 2023 and will get much more, likely over multiple years this offseason.

His numbers are unique, as he has always possessed elite power, and he hit 31 home runs with a hard-hit rate of 48.8% (90th percentile) and a barrel rate of 17.3% (98th percentile) in just 113 games. However, he strikes out and whiffs over 30% of the time and has been quite injury-prone. He does minimize some of that concern with a high walk rate.

After the two aforementioned outfielders and Soto, O’Neill is most likely the next-most coveted outfielder, particularly in terms of upside.

His Spotrac market value is listed at three years for nearly $50 million, which seems about right. But given his age (he won’t turn 30 until next June) and upside, I would not be surprised to see him get a fourth year or an AAV closer to $20 million.

Luis Severino

A massive reason why the Mets are currently in the NLCS is a variety of one-year deals with veterans, including the already analyzed Sean Manaea and this guy as well. While he hasn’t blossomed into a whole new type of arm like Manaea has done, Severino has earned a multi-year deal after a strong season in New York.

He moved from the Bronx to Queens on a one-year, $13 million free agent deal and will be able to sign a three or four-year deal for likely around a similar yearly amount. He finished the season with a 3.91 ERA and limited hard contact very well despite below-average whiff and strikeout numbers.

Back in his early years with the Yankees, Severino was a top-of-the-rotation option when healthy. He’s more of a three or four starter now, but that should still get him a big payday, especially as he’s just 30 years old.

Spotrac projects his contract to be a four-year, $56 million deal, and that seems fairly on point. Like I’ve been preaching in this piece though, starters are likely to be overpaid this winter. It wouldn’t shock me at all if a contending team gives upwards of $70 million to shore up its rotation with Severino.

Kyle Higashioka

This name may catch some off guard (see what I did there?), but Higashioka was quietly very good this season. The veteran backstop has been worth at least 1.3 WAR in each of the past three seasons yet has never played over 100 games. The Padres finally made him the primary catcher down the stretch and he was steady.

His power uptick helped as he hit 17 home runs, seven more than his previous career-high, and he continued to be a steady presence behind the dish. There may be bigger names, but I don’t honestly think there’s a better all-around catcher available this winter.

His market value on Spotrac is a one-year, $1.6 million deal, but that seems way off given the lack of catching options on the free agent market. I think “Higgy” will net a two-year deal, more likely than not to remain in San Diego, for somewhere in the $10 million range.

Jeff Hoffman

One last reliever to add to the mix here is someone who was finally really given the opportunity to shine this year in a crowded bullpen. Hoffman was a key bullpen piece in Philly last year but stepped into an eighth/ninth-inning role this season and continued to deliver.

His ability to miss bats is up there with almost any reliever in the game, as he ranked in the top fifth percentile of chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. He finished the season with a 2.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and plenty of high-leverage moments.

He made just $2.2 million this past season with the Phillies but should be looking at a three-year deal worth a lot more than that. His Spotrac market value AAV is $6.2 million, but I think he’s going to get closer to $7-8 million yearly on his next deal. It may depend somewhat on whether teams view him as a legit closer or more of a premium setup man.