Mets Rotation is Being Led by a Pair of Great Signings

The Mets’ rotation heading into the 2024 season was considered to be one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That weakness became even more glaring when Kodai Senga opened the season on the 60-day injured list.

Jose Quintana was tabbed as the team’s Opening Day starter with lots of uncertainty behind him. That included a pair of free agent signings in Luis Severino, who signed a one-year, $13 million deal, and Sean Manaea, who signed a two-year, $28 million deal.

Severino was coming off a year with the Yankees in which he was widely considered the worst pitcher in baseball, recording a 6.65 ERA and a 1.646 WHIP in 19 games.

Meanwhile, Manaea recorded a 4.44 ERA and a 1.241 WHIP in 37 games serving mostly as a bulk reliever for the Giants.

There was no indication if either of these guys would be able to stick in the Mets rotation for the whole season, much less become the top two starting pitchers leading it.

Yet here we are about to enter September, and the Mets playoff hopes rest largely on the shoulders of two starters that very few people believed in heading into spring training.

Luis Severino

When the Mets signed Luis Severino, they were hoping he could lean on his past experience being a frontline pitcher for the New York Yankees and return to old form.

Severino’s numbers weren’t great in 2023, but in 2022 he was rather effective before injuries ended his season early. The hard-throwing righty still had the velo on his fastball and spent the offseason working with Driveline to get ride on his four-seam, while developing a sinker to pair with it.

Ultimately, the most important thing for Severino was health, and now five years removed from Tommy John surgery, he has finally found it. The two-time All-Star is slated to pitch a full season for the first time since 2018 and has seen his ERA drop nearly a full 3.00 points from a season ago.

While he has stumbled a bit lately, recording a 9.69 ERA in three starts from July 31 to August 11, his second most recent outing was a masterpiece: a complete game shutout of the Marlins in which he allowed just six baserunners and struck out eight.

Severino’s numbers don’t do justice the impact that he’s had on the Mets this year. His 3.84 ERA and 7.4 strikeouts-per-nine suggest that he hasn’t really been that effective. However, Severino’s ERA has been inflated by a few poor outings this year.

Out of 25 starts, he’s recorded 10 quality starts and 16 starts allowing three runs or less.

As for his strikeout numbers, Severino is purposefully pitching to contact this year, whereas in the past he was purely seeking the strikeout. Severino has a whiff rate in the 19th percentile of all pitchers in baseball, but a ground ball rate in the 76th percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 80th percentile.

The biggest value Severino has brough the Mets is his ability to soak up innings for a rotation that has often struggled to pitch deep in games. Severino leads the Mets with 147 2/3 innings pitched, and very well could cross over 180 with a strong finish to the season.

Sean Manaea

Severino’s transformation has given the Mets a frontline starter in a scenario they could have only dreamed about in the offseason.

The same goes for Sean Manaea, who is tied with Severino for the team lead in wins this year with nine, while recording a 3.48 ERA. Like Severino, Manaea has also taken the mound every fifth day this year; both starters currently have 25 starts.

Manaea would have the lowest ERA in a full season in his entire career if the season ended today. He also has his lowest WHIP in a full season since 2018 and the lowest hits-per-nine of his career, though that’s coupled with the fact that he has the highest walks-per-nine of his career.

Like Severino, Manaea has only had a few poor outings this year. He has 10 quality starts and 21 starts allowing three runs or less.

He’s been especially great lately, recording seven innings and three or fewer runs in four of his last five starts, including a two-game stretch where he tossed 14 innings with just eight hits allowed, one walk, and 21 strikeouts without allowing a run.

In his most recent outing, he brought a perfect game into the sixth inning.

Unlike Severino, Manaea’s underlying metrics aren’t that great. The lefty gets great extension off the mound, but he’s walked a lot of batters and hasn’t really gotten soft contact or swings and misses at an elevated rate. Regardless, the peripherals can only tell you so much.

What they don’t tell you is Manaea has been incredible nearly every time he’s taken the mound this year. The fact that the Mets are 17-8 in the 25 games started by him is no accident.

In the absence of Kodai Senga and rookie Christian Scott, as well as with the season-long struggles of the bullpen, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea have given the Mets a sense of security every time they’re on the mound.

More often than not, you can count on them to give you length and an effective outing.

The downside of having reclamation projects work in your favor is that both Severino and Manaea can be free agents after this season, with Manaea possessing an opt-out of his two-year deal.

Both have thrived in New York, though, so there is every chance the Mets will pursue a reunion with one, or both, in free agency. The price tag is just sure to be much higher than last time around, as each will hit the open market after career-resurgent seasons where they will undoubtedly be looking for the security of a multi-year deal.