Anthony Santander Will Not Be Ignored

On Wednesday night, Anthony Santander hit his 41st home run of the 2024 season. It was a no-doubter, clocking in at 103.9 mph off the bat and traveling 408 feet into the Baltimore Orioles bullpen at Fenway Park.

Santander is one of just three players to reach 40 home runs so far this season. The other two, as you probably know, are AL and NL MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

With 15 games remaining on the Orioles’ schedule, Santander is on pace to hit 45 long balls, far surpassing his previous career-high of 33.

In the last 10 full seasons (dating back to 2014), only 22 players have hit 45 or more home runs. Just last year, 45 homers would have been enough to lead the American League.

Long story short, reaching 45 home runs would be a huge accomplishment.

What’s more, Santander is on pace to drive in 100 runs for the first time in his career. His 95 RBI rank ninth in the AL and 12th overall.

With an .833 OPS and a 133 wRC+, Santander ranks among the top 20 qualified hitters in MLB. He doesn’t add value with any tools besides his bat, but still, his 3.3 fWAR is enough to put him among the top 50 position players in the game in 2024.

Those numbers bear repeating: Santander is a top-50 position player, a top-20 hitter, and one of the biggest power bats in the game right now.

So, as the 29-year-old moves closer to free agency, he’s doing everything in his power – and with his power – to shed the “underrated” label and entice as many potential suitors as possible.

Anthony Santander Is Powering Up

Santander has always been a power threat. From 2019-23, he hit 110 home runs over 545 contests. That’s about 33 homers per 162 games.

However, he has taken a massive step forward in 2024. From 2019-23, he averaged a home run every 21 plate appearances. This year, he’s hitting one out of the park every 14.8 trips to the plate.

While his .519 slugging percentage “only” ranks 13th in MLB, his .277 isolated power ranks fifth, behind Judge, Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Brent Rooker.

Santander’s power surge has been critical to his success, because – and I say this with love – he doesn’t stand out in any other aspect of the game.

His whiff rate is solid, but his chase rate is poor. Although his walk and strikeout rates both rank around the 60th percentile, his batting average and on-base percentage are only middle-of-the-pack.

Overall, his .353 wOBA is well above the .311 league average. However, his .229 wOBA in plate appearances that do not end in a home run is well below the .257 league average.

Moreover, Santander ranks in the 11th percentile in baserunning value and the 27th percentile in fielding value, according to Baseball Savant.

Despite his shortcomings, Santander homered his way to a much-deserved first career All-Star appearance this summer. He’s looking to power the Orioles on a deep playoff run this October. And after that, he’ll hope to find plenty of suitors for his bag bat on the free agent market.

Where Is Anthony Santander’s Power Coming From?

From a quick glance at Anthony Santander’s Baseball Savant page, you wouldn’t think he was one the preeminent sluggers in the game.

His bat speed ranks in the 70th percentile. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 64th percentile.

And indeed, he doesn’t seem to be hitting the ball any harder this year than he was in the past. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are the lowest they’ve been since 2020.

Yet, to make things even stranger, 2020 was actually the best power season of his career – even better than 2024, albeit in a much smaller sample size. Santander crushed 11 home runs in just 37 games that year, good for a .575 slugging percentage and .314 ISO.

One commonality between Santander’s 2020 and ’24 seasons is his launch angle sweet-spot rate. That refers to how often he hits the ball with a LA between eight and 32 degrees. His 36.8% LA sweet-spot rate this season is the highest it’s been since 2020.

However, in 2020, that number was 40.6%, putting him in the 92nd percentile. This year, he only ranks in the 78th percentile in LA sweet-spot rate. That’s good, but once again, it’s a lot lower than you’d expect from a 45-homer hitter.

Even Santander’s 84th-percentile barrel rate (12.4%) seems unusually low. Indeed, only one hitter in the Statcast era has had a 45-homer season with a lower barrel rate (Marcus Semien, 9.8% barrel rate in 2021).

The Source of His Power

So, what’s going on?

Simply put, Santander is capitalizing on pulled fly balls. For one thing, he is hitting significantly more fly balls than ever before. He has a 56.4% FB% this year compared to a 48.8% career average.

He’s also pulling his fly balls significantly more often. He came into the season with a 32.3% career pull rate on flies. This year, he’s pulling them at a 38.2% rate.

What’s more, although his overall hard-hit rate is down, his hard-hit rate on pulled fly balls is the highest it’s ever been.

To top it all off, Santander is hitting more of those hard-hit pulled fly balls within the ideal launch angle range for home runs. His sweet-spot rate on hard-hit pulled fly balls is 62.2% this year; entering the season, his career average was 51.4%.

To sum that up, Santander is hitting more fly balls, more pulled fly balls, more hard-hit pulled fly balls, and more hard-hit pulled fly balls at an optimal launch angle.

As if that weren’t enough, Santander is simply making more contact this season, thanks to a career-best 19.5% whiff rate. More contact is good. More contact of the exact variety that leads to home runs is even better.

Santander is doing everything a hitter can do to maximize his home run output without elite raw power.

It’s working at home and on the road. It’s working against right and left-handed pitchers. And it has worked consistently throughout the season. Santander’s home run parade didn’t truly begin until June, but he has had well-above-average power numbers in every month of the 2024 season.

You can’t argue with results like that.

Can Anthony Santander Keep This Up?

Anthony Santander’s timing couldn’t be better. With every home run he hits, his free agent asking price goes up. Most players could only dream of having a breakout performance like this in their walk year.

These days, however, most teams know not to pay for past performance. They value free agents based on what they think those players will do in the future.

So, it’s worth wondering if Santander can keep this up.

Stats like pull rate and launch angle sweet-spot rate aren’t nearly as sustainable year to year as hard-hit rate.

No one is saying that Santander hasn’t earned his 2024 numbers. Still, it would be easier to believe he could maintain this level of performance if he were simply crushing the baseball.

His pull tendency, in particular, explains why his .335 xwOBA (68th percentile) is significantly lower than his .353 wOBA.

Meanwhile, his low exit velocities (relatively speaking) partially explain why he has the fifth-largest gap between his actual home runs and expected home runs, per Statcast:

Largest HR-xHR in MLB

Santander has hit his fair share of wall scrapers, and fewer than half of his home runs would have gone out in all 30 MLB parks. Statcast estimates he would have as few as 30 home runs this year if he played all his games at the Oakland Coliseum or PNC Park.

To be clear, a .335 xwOBA and 36.7 xHR are still great numbers. Moreover, there is plenty of evidence that certain hitters can maintain a high pull rate and outperform their expected metrics year after year.

Still, teams are going to be wary of regression as they negotiate with Santander and his agents this winter. That’s especially true because he doesn’t have enough other skills to buoy his performance if his power starts to slip. And it doesn’t help that he’ll turn 30 in about six weeks.

That doesn’t mean Santander won’t be able to secure a hefty contract after his phenomenal walk year, it just won’t be for quite as many years or millions as you’d expect for one of the top power hitters in the game.

How Will Anthony Santander Fare as a Free Agent?

Juan Soto will be the top free agent on the market. That much is certain. Willy Adames and Alex Bregman are the next two names to watch, considering the value they offer on both sides of the ball.

After that, Santander could be the next best position player available. Pete Alonso is a bigger name, and that might be enough for him to secure a bigger contract.

However, Santander has undeniably been the better hitter this season. Indeed, Alonso hasn’t been definitively better than Santander since 2022. Although, to be fair, Alonso has a much longer track record of success; he was significantly more productive than Santander from 2019-22.

Ultimately, their respective markets might come down to which teams have a need at first base and which have a need in the outfield.

Will Santander Re-Sign With the Orioles?

Santander returning to Baltimore seems unlikely, though not impossible — especially if he leads the Orioles on a deep postseason run.

That’s not to say the Orioles wouldn’t like to have Santander back next season, but re-signing might not be high enough on their list of priorities. Their number one goal should be to add more pitching, especially with Corbin Burnes approaching free agency himself.

The front office might also look to sign Gunnar Henderson to a massive, long-term extension.

As for the outfield, the O’s could replace Santander internally with Heston Kjerstad. And presuming they offer Santander a qualifying offer, they’ll gain a draft pick if he signs with another team.

Thankfully for Santander, he should have plenty of other options to choose from. Even with a qualifying offer attached and some on-field regression to be expected, he can expect a robust market.

He won’t make as much money as Soto, Adames, Bregman, and possibly even Alonso. Yet, precisely because he won’t be looking for as many years or dollars, and because he can slot in as a right fielder, left fielder, or DH, he could drum up more interested parties than any of them.

Anthony Santander Will Not Be Ignored

For years, Anthony Santander was overshadowed by Cedric Mullins in the Orioles outfield.

Entering the 2024 campaign, there was a chance the veteran might soon find himself edged out in favor of youngsters like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Kyle Stowers.

Instead, Santander established himself as an essential bat in the middle of the Orioles lineup. Long a fan favorite in Baltimore, Tony Taters is starting to make a name for himself around the league, too.

Perhaps Anthony Santander is still underrated, but with the playoffs and free agency approaching, this unconventional slugger will not be ignored.