The Complete Guide for the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

This year’s BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot presents many storylines.

Exciting first-year candidates, a dramatic 10th-year appearance from Billy Wagner, and several holdovers looking to make big gains in the race to 75%.

This year’s election will not only induct new members into baseball’s most exclusive club, but will also set the stage for future elections. Before the final tallies are revealed on Tuesday, Jan. 21 at 6:00 pm EST on MLB Network, we have everything you need to know about this year’s ballot.

Big year for returners?

This year’s vote could turn out to be one of the biggest for returning candidates we’ve seen in years. After the elections of Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, and the departure of Gary Sheffield from the 2024 ballot, we are seeing some of the strongest exodus of talent from a previous year’s ballot in a long time.

The four candidates leaving the ballot due to election or maxing out earned a combined total of 1,212 votes in 2024. That is the most votes from departing candidates via election or expiration since 2019. Historically speaking, these are good signs for returning candidates in following years.

Since 2016, there has been a correlation between the departures on Hall of Fame ballots and the gains made by returners the following year.

In 2023, the ballot lost 478 votes between the election of Scott Rolen and the expiration of Jeff Kent’s time on the ballot. That represented the second-fewest votes lost since 2016. Between those losses and a strong incoming first-year class highlighted by Beltre and Mauer, returners gained a net of 76 votes, also the second-fewest since 2016.

Just a year prior, returners saw a combined net gain of 318 votes the year after the election of David Ortiz and the departures of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Curt Schilling.

This history and the departures of four candidates from last year should be an encouraging sign for those looking to inch closer to 75% this year. However, this year does also present a strong first-year class, highlighted by one candidate looking to make history.

Ichiro Suzuki, unanimous?

Ichiro Suzuki is a slam dunk candidate that might as well begin preparing his acceptance speech for this upcoming July. The question is not whether or not he reaches 75%, but rather if he gets every vote. While it is hard to evaluate if just one of the nearly 400 voters will decide to leave him off their ballot, it’s just as difficult to find a case against Ichiro’s Cooperstown candidacy.

Ichiro took the league by storm as a Japanese import in 2001. In his first 50 career games, he slashed .358/.383/.483 for a .866 OPS. He became the first player in baseball history to record a hit in at least 46 of his first 50 career games.

In that same span, he became the first player since 1936 with at least 26 multi-hit games in his first 50 career games. He went on to slash .350/.381/.457 with 242 hits, 56 stolen bases, and 127 runs scored. He cruised to the American Rookie of the Year Award, while also becoming the second rookie to take home MVP honors. From there, he never looked back.

From 2001-2010, Ichiro led Major League hitters with 2244 hits. Derek Jeter was second on that list with just 1,918 hits. His .331 AVG through that span ranked tied with Albert Pujols for the highest. He also ranked 3rd with 383 stolen bases, trailing Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford.

Despite starting his Major League career at age 27, Ichiro called it a career in 2019 with 3,089 hits, 362 doubles, 96 triples, 57.5 fWAR, and a slash line of .311/.355/.402/.757 in 10,734 plate appearances. Only Pete Rose tallied more hits from age 27 on. His 57.5 fWAR also ranks 33rd all time among all position players after age 26.

Ichiro’s 10 seasons with 200+ hits rank tied with Pete Rose for the most all-time. His nine seasons with a .300 batting average or higher with at least 725 plate appearances ranks second all time only behind Rose. Most famously, his 262 hits in the 2004 season are an all-time record.

Ichiro is one of 33 members of the elusive 3,000-hit club, a milestone seen as a automatic bid for the Hall of Fame, as long as PED allegations are not part of the question.

Since integration, 19 members of the 3,000-hit club, without character clause issues, have appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot. Those 19 players averaged 91.04% of the vote in their first year of eligibility, with all of them surpassing the 75% threshold in year one.

Ichiro transcended the game in both the US and in Japan. When elected, he will become the first Japanese born player to become a Hall of Famer.

Could CC Sabathia make it in Year 1?

First-year candidate CC Sabathia has a lot of factors in his favor. Over 250 wins, over 3,000 strikeouts, a CY Young Award, World Series Championship, a guy most remembered in a big market, and someone who was well liked around the game.

Sabathia started his Major League career as a 20-year-old left hander in the Cleveland organization. After posting a 107 ERA+ over his first five big league seasons, the break out began in 2006.

From 2006-2012, Sabathia posted a 3.14 ERA and 140 ERA+ across 1591.2 innings. His 40.0 fWAR in that span was the second-highest among starting pitchers, trailing only Roy Halladay. This seven-year span included Sabathia’s first and only Cy Young award with Cleveland in 2007.

That year, CC logged a league-leading 241 innings with a 3.21 ERA and a 5.65 K/BB, which also led the Majors.

The next year, Sabathia was traded mid-season to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he carried the crew to the playoffs on an unforgettable run.

In 17 starts with the Brewers, Sabathia threw 130.2 innings, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA. Despite only spending three months in the National League, Sabathia managed to place fifth in league Cy Young voting and sixth in MVP voting.

During this stretch, Sabathia led all qualifying starting pitchers in ERA, FIP (2.44), and fWAR (4.7) by nearly a full win. The Brewers went 14-3 in his starts, and scraped into the playoffs by one game.

The following off-season, CC signed a seven-year, $161 million contract with the New York Yankees. In year one of that contract, he posted a 3.37 ERA in 230 innings and led the Yankees to their 27th World Championship.

Sabathia posted a 1.98 ERA across 36.1 postseason innings en route to the World Series ring.

Sabathia retired as one of just 19 pitchers with 3,000 career strikeouts. Aside from Sabathia, only four of the 18 other pitchers to reach this milestone are not in the Hall of Fame. Two of those four are Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, pitchers not yet eligible to appear on the ballot. The other two are Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, pitchers with a range of character clause issues.

Sabathia’s 66.5 career fWAR ranks fifth highest since the start of the 21st century. He only trails Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke. He ranks just ahead of Roy Halladay.

CC Sabathia was a top pitcher at his peak. The lefty remains one of the top pitchers of the last 30 years. He won a Cy Young. He won a World Series in a big market as an ace with a big contract. He hit several Hall of Fame milestones, and he will certainly be a Hall of Famer at some point and has the case to make it in year one.

Billy Wagner and the 10th-year boost

It’s now or never for former relief-ace Billy Wagner. Through his first nine election cycles on the BBWAA ballot, Wagner has climbed from 10.5% of the vote in his first-year all the way to 73.8% in 2024. Wagner missed election by just five votes in the previous cycle, setting him up for election in his final attempt on this ballot.

Luckily for Wagner, candidates on their final year on the ballot have a history of making gains far larger than the one necessary for Wagner to get the 1.2% boost needed for his induction.

Over the last 10 election cycles, many last-chance candidates, not facing character clause issues, have put up a strong showing before exiting the ballot.

Some have propelled candidates to election, while others rose to heights higher than before, but not quite up the mountain.

There are many reasons for this phenomena – some writers give these players a more extensive look since it’s their last chance to do so, some recognize the added sense of urgency, and some may vote for the purpose of saying they voted for these players.

Regardless, the final year has a history of uplifting these players when they need it most.

In 2016, former Tigers’ shortstop Alan Trammell was facing his 15th and final year on the ballot, back when players were allowed to stick around on the ballot that long.

Trammell had never been given any indication for an induction via BBWAA. He had topped out at 36.8% in year 11, and found himself at 25.1% in his penultimate year.

Although a gain of nearly half the electorate was never realistic, several writers changed their minds. According to the Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker, Trammell picked up a net gain of 39 votes from writers that hadn’t voted for him the previous year.

This wave of writers showing their support for Trammell brought him up to 40.9% to finish his time on the ballot, a new personal best for him. Trammell would later be inducted into the Hall of Fame via the Modern Baseball Era Committee in 2018.

The next year, Expos’ outfield icon Tim Raines needed to make a final push. Raines earned 69.8% of the vote ahead of year 10. Not only did Raines earn the 5.2% of the vote needed to reach 75%, he soared past it on his way to Cooperstown.

Raines saw a net gain of 37 votes on his way to a convincing 86.0% total. The 16.2% gain in year 10 represented the highest gain he had seen over any two years on the ballot.

Perhaps no late surge has ever been more impressive than the one accomplished by Larry Walker from 2018-2020. Walker was at just 34.1% of the vote after eight years, needing to gain 40.9% of the vote in his final two years. Miraculously, he did it in year 10.

Walker entered his final year on the ballot needing to make up the 87 votes he missed election by in 2019. He capped off his time on the ballot at 76.6% of the vote, narrowly enough to become a Hall of Famer. He saw a net gain of 56 votes, but that doesn’t tell the full story of how this came to be.

Each year, around 15% of the writers choose not to reveal their ballots. In 2019, just 27.9% of these anonymous ballots had Walker’s name checked off. The next year, that number rose to a stunning 63.5%. Even the hard-to-convince anonymous ballot writers showed up for Walker in his final year.

Other last-year candidates who experienced these types of gains include Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, and Jeff Kent. Of all these candidates, Billy Wagner has the smallest deficit to overcome to get to 75%. Although he just needs to change the minds of five more people, history says that help and more is on the way.

Andruw Jones

This is a year in which Andruw Jones has the chance to set himself up for a possible 2026 induction. He needs to gain 13.4% of the vote over his next three years before falling off the ballot.

The 2024 election cycle was not a good one for returners looking to make gains. Jones was perhaps the most prominent victim of this.

With the departure of just two candidates and a first-year class highlighted by two first-ballot Hall of Famers, many writers couldn’t find room for Jones compared to years past. Although he did gain 3.5% compared to his 2023 total, it was his smallest gain since 2019.

Jones made marginal gains with pre-election votes and writers who revealed their ballots after the results were announced, but lost ground with the private vote, a group that has been all over the place with Jones since he first appeared on the ballot.

When Jones entered the voting process in 2019, Jones’ strongest voting block was this group of anonymous ballots. Jones outperformed himself on the public ballots by double the rate. The next year, he lost nearly two-thirds of that support while making gains everywhere else.

While Jones appears to be unpredictable with this small voting block, he will need to win more of them over in order to eventually be elected. Players like Joe Mauer, Scott Rolen, David Ortiz, and Larry Walker who have recently been elected to the Hall of Fame on slim margins all polled more than 55% of these ballots.

The potential strong year incoming for returning candidates across the board could benefit Jones, a candidate that has twice gained more than 14% twice between two years. Another gain of that caliber, although unlikely, would slingshot him over the 75% mark in 2025.

Jones has gained a minimum of 7.5% of the total vote in four of the next five election cycles. Matching that gain in 2025 would put him at 69.1% heading into his ninth year. This gain, or anything higher, would almost certainly guarantee him an eventual spot in Baseball’s Hall of Fame courtesy of the BBWAA.

Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran could surprise a lot of people this year.

The dynamic outfielder is in a strong position to one day make it to the Hall of Fame after amassing more than half the vote in just his second year of eligibility.

The dark cloud of the 2017 Astros sign stealing scandal and Beltran’s alleged involvement with the scheme has not seemed to hinder his support from the writers.

In a year where returning candidates struggled to gain momentum, Beltran had the highest year-to-year improvement of any holdover candidate in 2024. He jumped 10.6% from his debut score of 46.5% of the vote in 2023. An identical gain for Beltran in 2025 would get him to 67.7%, nicely in line to get him in the Hall in 2026.

Not only did Beltran overcome a bad year for players returning to the ballot, he also withstood the effects of being dropped by 11 writers. Beltran’s 11 votes lost were tied for the third-most on last year’s ballot among all returners. This didn’t stop him from posting a net gain of 31 votes, the most for any player on the ballot.

Three of the 11 writers who dropped Beltran from their previous ballots said they did so because they needed to make room for others on a 10-player ballot.

As a second-year candidate with a secure spot on the next year’s ballot, Beltran was an easy target for these drops in 2024. Each of these three writers stated that they plan on adding Beltran back to their ballots if there is room for him.

If Beltran can weather these conditions and still turn out a near 11% increase, imagine what he can do in a year where obstacles like these are not in his way. Beltran could be a candidate to see even higher gains in 2025, maybe even big enough to propel him all the way to the finish line. It isn’t likely, but bigger leaps have been taken in one year to get to the magic number.

As of right now, Beltran feels like one of two things – a surprise induction in 2025, or the most sure-fire candidate to get in as part of the 2026 class. Only time will tell which of these options, if any, come true, but Beltran is poised to make a strong push this cycle.

Alex Rodriguez/Manny Ramirez

If you’ve followed this process before, you can probably tell how this ends.

The BBWAA is notoriously not kind to prominent players who’s careers were overshadowed by suspicions or suspensions due to PED usage.

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, the two faces of this treatment, were famously shunned by the writers for all 10 years they spent on the ballot. Bonds and Clemens spent a few years slowly climbing the ladder before hitting a wall around the 50-60% range. For Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, it seems like that same wall has been established.

Unlike several of their predecessors on the ballot who faced PED issues, Rodriguez and Ramirez were suspended for their offenses. Both players tested positive for banned substances after MLB began its testing and discipline policy in 2005.

A-Rod debuted at 34.3% in 2022 and hasn’t moved more than 1.3% since. Manny has moved as much as 11.2% between his worst and best performance over the course of eight cycles.

It seems as though the writers have made it clear how this process is going to play out for both players. It’s like Manny’s first eight years serve as a preview for what A-Rod can expect over his next seven cycles before his time expires.

It’s evident that the writers as a whole see PED suspensions in a worse light than they saw the alleged offenses of several candidates that came before these two. While there was some suspense for a few years over the fates of candidates like Bonds and Clemens several years ago, the final results of A-Rod and Manny’s time on the ballot feels much more predictable.

Chase Utley

Once you advance to a second ballot in this voting process, it becomes a game of changing people’s minds. Although there isn’t much Chase Utley himself can do right now to campaign for his case, he has nine years to win over enough voters to gain another 46.8%.

28.2% is a strong start. Eventual Hall of Famers like Scott Rolen, Tim Raines, and Larry Walker all opened their campaigns with less support.

An interesting takeaway from Chase Utley’s first year on the ballot is the large discrepancy between his performance before and after the election. Utley tallied nearly 40% of the vote on all ballots revealed before the election, and just 15.4% of the votes revealed after.

In recent years, there isn’t much of a precedent for this among first year candidates.

Since 2016, the closest comparison came in 2019 with Roy Halladay. Although Halladay was posthumously elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility, the post-election vote didn’t quite come through for him in the same way.

Halladay garnered support from 92.2% of the vote before the results were revealed, but just 77.2% of the vote after the election. Still enough for induction, but also 15% below the mark set for himself before the announcement of his induction.

While Halladay’s discrepancy isn’t quite as lopsided as Utley’s, it’s the best recent comparison for this available. It’s hard to predict whether or not trends like this will continue, but this year’s election will show if this was a fluke, or an issue Utley will have to overcome to eventually get in the hall.

If Utley’s final vote percentage drops 10 points from his pre-election results again, it’s clear that the writers that don’t reveal their ballots until after the election, or don’t reveal them at all, will be a major obstacle for Utley.

Omar Vizquel

If you told someone after the 2020 election that in five years Omar Vizquel’s chances to make the Hall of Fame looked as bleak as they do now, people would ask what went wrong.

The answer to that is clear.

Vizquel looked set up for an eventual election after receiving a vote from more than half of the writers in just his third year. But in late 2020, everything changed after his ex-wife accused the former Cleveland shortstop of domestic abuse going back several years.

The report came out in the middle of December after several writers already sent in their ballots. The three percent drop in 2021 is reflective of the few writers that still had not submitted their votes that decided to withdraw their vote for him upon hearing the news.

2022 was when all writers first had a chance to evaluate Vizquel with this new information in mind, and they responded accordingly.

A net drop of 75 votes represents the largest number of net votes gained or lost in a single year in the time this data has been available for tracking. From there, it became clear the writers were never going to see past this.

Interestingly enough, Vizquel is one of few candidates to ever keep appearing on this ballot that has consistently done better with the post election vote compared to the pre election vote. To do this once usually makes you an outlier, but to do it in seven straight years is unprecedented.

Since 2015, there have been seven instances where a player received at least 10% more support from private ballots than they did on public ballots in a given year.

Five of those instances belong to Omar Vizquel. In 2021, he received a whopping 24.1% higher rate of support on private ballots compared to public ballots, the highest discrepancy ever received on the side of more private votes since at least 2015.

Although Vizquel has a stronger support system among this voting bracket than many other candidates, it’s a small group of writers that will never be enough to get him to 75% without more support from the public vote. In the end, Vizquel’s alleged actions against his ex-wife and others will likely leave him shut out of Cooperstown.

Bobby Abreu

These next two years are likely going to tell us what to make of Bobby Abreu’s candidacy. While he has made marginal gains over the last five years, he hasn’t had the big breakout to really put his case on the map.

With this year potentially looking good for returners to make gains, and next year looking even better, this is the time for Abreu to really start climbing. The longer he stays on the ballot and the more support he gets, the more other writers are going to need to look further into his case.

Luckily for Abreu, other candidates have faced similar deficits at this stage of the process and were still elected by the BBWAA.

Heading into year six, Abreu has hovered around 15% for each of the last two years.

Hall of Famer Edgar Martinez was at 27% of the vote after his sixth year, and Hall of Famer Larry Walker was at 15%. Both were inducted in their final year of eligibility. Although Abreu has a long way to go, and time is running out, it’s been done before.

The goal for Abreu this year should be to get somewhere between 20-25%. With the potential big gains across the board looming, that progress might look smaller for Abreu.

This is because he is a candidate who hasn’t received a lot of support in the past, and the strong class of first-year candidates will probably take votes away from writers who are considering him and others.

The highest gain Abreu has made between two years was in 2023 when he jumped by 6.8%. That same gain would get him to 21.6% in 2025.

That kind of gain could set Abreu up for a huge breakout in 2026. With Wagner definitely leaving the ballot next year, Ichiro and Sabathia likely leaving the ballot, and a weak first year class incoming, 2026 should bring more attention to returning candidates like Abreu.

A rise above 20% in 2025 could, at best, set him up to get near the 40% mark after year seven. If he falls short of these marks, his candidacy will likely end under 75% after year 10.

Jimmy Rollins

It’s been slow and steady progress for Jimmy Rollins since his time on the ballot began in 2022. Last year, despite a small 1.9% gain, was an impressive showing that could be indicative of what is to come.

Rollins was one of just five returners on the 2024 ballot to finish the year with a net gain in the double digits. The other four were Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Carlos Beltran and Gary Sheffield – candidates that all achieved at least 55% of the vote.

At 14.8%, Rollins’ gain of support did not fall in line with the rest of the players in his range.

Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Andy Pettitte, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and Francisco Rodriguez were all candidates that finished with less than 35% of the vote and saw a net loss in votes among public voters. Not only did Rollins not suffer a loss, he saw a strong gain. This is a great sign for the future of his candidacy.

If Rollins can see an improvement like that in an off-year for low-percentage returning candidates like he did in 2024, there is a lot of potential for growth in better years for players like him. Rollins and his supporters should be very excited to see how the next 2-3 years go for him.

At this point, Rollins looks like a sleeper pick to make big gains and eventually get to a point where his case requires a closer look from writers across the board.

Mark Buehrle/Andy Pettitte

Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte are at different stages of their time on the ballot, but they get grouped into one category. They were similar types of pitchers with near identical statistics in many regards.

Their Hall of Fame voting results have also been synonymous with one another since they began sharing the ballot together in 2021. Between 2022-2024, these two lefties trended the same way. They both went down in 2022, up in 2023, and down again in 2024.

Buehrle and Pettitte represent an archetype of pitcher the writers will soon not be able to vote for. Innings eaters who were good with run prevention but low on strikeouts is not something voters will be seeing much of for the foreseeable future on these ballots.

Buehrle had 14 seasons throughout his career with at least 200 innings pitched. He actually leads all pitchers with the most of such seasons since 1993 despite debuting seven years after that. Pettitte logged 13 qualifying seasons throughout his career with an ERA+ of at least 100, marking him as at least a league average pitcher with run prevention.

This display of availability and effectiveness is among the best for pitchers in his era. Pettitte tied with four other pitchers for the most such seasons since 1995, the year he began his Major League career. He is tied with Buehrle, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and CC Sabathia at the top of that list.

It’s no secret that pitchers like this are harder to come by now than ever before. In 2024, Logan Gilbert led all pitchers with 208.2 innings pitched. This would be Buehrle’s ninth-most innings pitched in a season and Pettitte’s seventh-most.

While it seems clear Buehrle and Pettitte will not see election via the BBWAA, their workloads and accomplishments could become more appreciated as time passes.

This could make them potential candidates to still find their way to the hall via Era Committees. While this is a projection far down the line, committee members might see these types of pitchers as a “lost art” in the modern game and could give them Cooperstown recognition for that reason.

David Wright/Francisco Rodriguez/Torii Hunter

At this point, these three candidates are happy to still be on the ballot. Each of them have been a few votes away from falling below five percent and leaving the ballot at one point or another.

Between these three, David Wright might have the most reason to be optimistic. Despite the weakest voting percentage in year one, Wright, in many respects, had perhaps the most memorable career of these three.

For a nine-season span between 2005 to 2013, Wright was the fourth-most valuable position player in baseball according to fWAR.

He was on a Hall of Fame track before injuries derailed his career in the mid-to-late 2010s. Wright has another nine years on the ballot and was a survivor of a difficult ballot to be introduced on.

Francisco Rodriguez might not have a path to 75% right now, but the results of this year’s election could have strong impacts of his candidacy. Billy Wagner will likely be inducted this year, and will become the seventh relief pitcher to be elected by the BBWAA.

The two most recent Hall of Famers to be elected to the Hall of Fame via this method were Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, the two closers with the most career saves.

Billy Wagner finished his career with 422 saves, 15 less than Rodriguez. An election of Wagner could open the door for a better argument to be made for K-Rod, a pitcher who retired with a higher career ERA+ than Hall of Famers like Hoffman, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, and others.

It’s still a long way up for Torii Hunter. He will reach the halfway mark for his time on the ballot after this year, but is still trying to top his percentage from his inaugural year in 2021.

Hunter has yet to surpass the 10% threshold after four years and has gotten as low as 5.3% in that time. He has also failed to reach 5% of the pre-election vote in any year and has been bailed out by the post-election vote each year he has been on the ballot.

If he remains on the ballot after this year, Hunter is another candidate that will need to start seeing gains in years like 2026 with a weaker first-year class coming in. Otherwise, he will continue to be as risk of falling off the ballot each year.

Felix Hernandez/Dustin Pedroia/Ian Kinsler

These three first year candidates will likely not make the Hall of Fame this year, but are hoping to stay on the ballot. This year will determine if the writers will be given a second look at their careers and cases.

Felix Hernandez was one of the best pitchers of his generation, but his career did not include a key part of the anatomy of a Hall of Fame case.

For the first 11 seasons of his career, he had a clear Hall of Fame peak. He logged a 128 ERA+, 2,142 strikeouts, and a Cy Young Award before turning 30. From 2005-2015, he was the most valuable pitcher in the Majors according to fWAR. After this point, it all came to a halt.

For the final four seasons of his career, Hernandez posted a 4.89 ERA and 5.10 FIP.

These post-peak years are meant to be good enough for pitchers to stay in the league and get to big career milestones. Hernandez didn’t get to 200 wins. In fact, he didn’t even get to 175.

Though, those who followed his career would know that was largely because of the offense behind him. This year, the writers will decide if King Felix’s peak was enough, or if he pitched his way out of the Hall.

Much like David Wright, Dustin Pedroia was on a Hall of Fame trajectory before becoming plagued by injuries late in his career. From 2007 to 2016, Pedroia was the eighth-most valuable position player in baseball according to fWAR. Baseball Reference’s version of WAR tends to favor Pedroia because of his defensive prowess at second base throughout his career.

Since integration, Pedroia’s six seasons with at least 5.0 bWAR are tied for the third-most among second basemen. He also won Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and two World Series Championships, and did so as a beloved figure in a big market.

These are the factors that could be key in pushing Pedroia over the 5% mark this year.

Ian Kinsler is another candidate looking for enough support to earn another chance. The second baseman was a staple in eight years in Texas and then in Detroit shortly thereafter. Since the start of the 1990s, Kinsler ranks seventh in fWAR among all second basemen. With a 107 OPS+, 243 stolen bases and 88 defensive runs saved, Kinsler was a dynamic player on all sides of the ball.

According to Baseball Reference, Kinsler was one of four second basemen since integration was 80 career batting runs, 80 fielding runs and 30 baserunning runs. The other three to do so were Jackie Robinson, Chase Utley and Willie Randolph.

Kinsler was also with Texas during their World Series runs in 2010 and 2011. He was then traded to Detroit for the Tigers’ 2014 postseason run. He then finally won his ring as a member of the Red Sox in 2018. His contributions to many successful teams across three different franchises could get him enough support from local markets to stay on the ballot.

Brian McCann/Russell Martin

The catcher position is one that the Baseball Hall of Fame voters seem to love voting for.

In recent years, Joe Mauer was elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot despite playing nearly half of his career as a first baseman. Ivan Rodriguez was also elected on his first ballot despite suspicions of PED use, which he denied.

Mike Piazza was elected on his fourth ballot despite admitting to usage of a banned substance three years earlier. Piazza also shared a ballot with several of the best suspicion-free members of the steroid era during his four years in the voting process.

The voters have shown time and time again to show an appreciation towards catchers, and Brian McCann and Russell Martin create a unique case for the position.

While McCann and Martin did not appear to have Hall of Fame numbers on the surface, there is one skill they had that makes them stand out with the best; framing.

According to Fangraphs, McCann and Martin rank as the 15th and 11th most valuable catchers in history by fWAR. They are in line with Yadier Molina despite around 2,000 fewer career plate appearances. However, Fangraphs began tracking framing metrics in 2008.

Since then, they have ranked as the top two catchers on the Fangraphs framing metric. Baseball-Reference does not measure framing when evaluating catchers, but Fangraphs makes it a core part of its determination.

Depending on your views on framing, McCann and Martin might be Hall of Famers or one-and-done candidates on the ballot. In two years, Molina will debut on the ballot and likely get in without much hassle. This is despite Fangraphs suggesting McCann and Martin, who will have to fight for 5.0%, were equally as valuable in less playing time.

The rest of the First Year Class

Rounding out the ballot are first-year candidates Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Adam Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Zobrist.

Many were once considered some of the best players in the game but did not have enough of a peak or the longevity to build a Hall of Fame case. These candidates will likely fall off the ballot after this election but had very good careers nonetheless.

How to track the Ballot Process

The final results of the election will not be revealed until late January, but there is a way to keep track of the incoming ballots until then.

The Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker keeps a log of every Hall of Fame ballot sent in by writers before and after the election. It also keeps track of past ballots to show which returning players get added and dropped by each writer.

This system helps gauge what the results and trends may look like before we find out the final tallies. You can also follow the tracker by following Ryan Thibodaux and the rest of the tracker team on Bluesky.