Luis Robert Jr. Is the Most Confusing Trade Chip in MLB

Ah yes, the time of the year when we try to determine the value of players on the trade market…often to no avail.

With Sandy Alcantara starting to find his form again, the most puzzling player on the entire market may be Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox. You’ve probably heard the narrative by now, but I’ll provide a recap.

Robert was once considered among the best young outfielders in the game, but injuries, poor approach, and lack of consistency have led to him being a hard-to-gauge asset.

The former top prospect burst onto the scene as a key piece of the past core in Chicago, but he always struggled to stay healthy. Robert hit .338 and posted 3.4 fWAR in just 68 games as a 23-year-old in 2021 and appeared to be on a superstar track when healthy.

He regressed significantly in 2022 while playing fewer than 100 games once again. This led to 2023 becoming a pivotal season for Robert, and he turned in a massive year. He played 145 games, posted 4.9 fWAR, and hit 38 home runs that season.

With the White Sox crashing and burning, this would have been the best time to move him. But that’s hindsight, unfortunately.

After dealing with another injury early in the year that continued to nag him, Robert had a rough 2024 season. He regressed in every way, sustained multiple injuries, and looked like a shell of himself from the year prior.

If Robert had a strong season last year or even a good second half, Chicago would have capitalized on him like they did with Garrett Crochet in the offseason. Instead, they chose to hold out in the hope of him rebuilding his value in the first half of the 2025 season.

That has not happened. Robert has been even worse at the plate, despite his perennially poor plate approach improving this year.

He’s hitting below .200 with just eight home runs on the year and an on-base percentage of just .273, which is brutal. Robert has some of the best bat speed in baseball and is still barreling balls at a strong rate, but he is whiffing over 30% of the time and failing to produce.

On the flip side, Robert has stolen 22 bases while playing plus defense in center field and walking at a career-high clip.

At the end of the day, though, he needs to hit to be a truly valuable piece for a team. The White Sox went into the season hoping to get a pair of high-level prospects in return for him, and that just won’t happen at this point.

After 2023, Robert’s contract seemed like an excellent value for Chicago or whoever ultimately traded for him, but it’s not that way anymore.

His $15 million salary this season is not entirely unreasonable for the role player (at best) archetype he has fit this year. The $20 million team options for each of the next two seasons, though, are not something teams will be picking up based on his performance over the past year and a half.

That would make him essentially a glove-first rental with the chance to hit more as he has in the past, but no guarantee.

While I do believe that a change of scenery could do wonders for Robert at the plate, that’s far from a sure thing.

If he can return to even 80% of his 2023 form, he’ll be a big help to a contender this fall. But he could also remain a hole in the lineup, albeit while providing strong defense in center.

Robert’s true value on the market is hard to gauge, but it still seems the White Sox will try to move him for at least one or two assets.

It won’t be near the return most would’ve thought he’d get Chicago a year or two ago, but Robert can help a team.

Editor’s Note: This article was written before Robert exited Wednesday’s game with hamstring soreness. White Sox manager Will Venable told reporters (including Scott Merkin of MLB.com) that Robert is “still getting evaluated” but the teams feels as if he’s doing okay. “Give him the off day,” Venable said. “See where we’re at on Friday.”

Potential Suitors for Luis Robert Jr.

Finding a fit for Robert is complex, as it has to be a team with some risk tolerance and a need for an upgrade in center.

With Robert’s offense being a question mark, he needs to provide high-end defense at least at the premium outfield spot.

Philadelphia Phillies

Amidst an intense battle for the NL East with the team we’ll mention next, the Phillies are in their window to compete more than almost any other team. With an aging core on both sides of the ball, it’s time for Philly to push some chips in this deadline.

Max Kepler has been a disappointment after signing with them this offseason, and Brandon Marsh has been okay at best. Johan Rojas was hopefully going to take over center at some point, but has been just as bad as Robert offensively, without a track record of success.

Robert has shown at times that he’s a much better player than any of those three, which could spark the Phillies to make it happen.

New York Mets

Talk about a team ready to compete by all means necessary. The Mets’ farm system has emerged as one of the best in baseball, with several prospects taking a huge step forward this season.

They’re in a race with the Phillies for the NL East and are clearly going to buy at the deadline. They may opt for a safer option than Robert to upgrade their outfield, but I could see this making some sense.

Upgrading from Tyrone Taylor in center with Robert would add a layer of upside to the offense. However, Taylor’s defense and speed are on par with Robert’s, which puts a lot of pressure on Robert to hit.

Milwaukee Brewers

The tale of “Will Milwaukee actually buy for once at the deadline?” continues… and I’ll believe it when I see it. They’re still in serious playoff contention and could very well make the postseason with a couple of moves.

With Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick set in the outfield as Christian Yelich has shifted into a full-time DH role, Robert could slot into that final spot for the Brewers. Garrett Mitchell had a setback in his recovery from a shoulder injury, and nobody on the roster currently has the upside of Robert.

San Diego Padres

You can never count out the San Diego Padres from making a big splash. They’ve regressed after a huge start to the year, but are still in the bucket of teams trying to compete this season.

Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. make up an elite outfield duo, but the third spot has been a revolving door for San Diego this year. Even if they chose to utilize Robert in left, where his defense would be less valuable, he’d be an upgrade.

Cincinnati Reds

It may be too soon to pencil them in as buyers, but the Reds are playing solid ball of late and could seriously use an outfielder.

While TJ Friedl has been sneaky excellent, an upgrade out there would do wonders for this lineup. If they want to make a splash, it’ll have to be a marginally risky one. Enter Luis Robert Jr.