Can Paul Skenes Still Win the Rookie of the Year?

Things can change rather quickly in Major League Baseball.

Coming out of the All-Star break, it appeared the National League Rookie of the Year race was all but settled. Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates was an enormous favorite to take home the hardware, sitting as a -1200 favorite despite only making 11 starts at that point in the season.

He looked like the most dominant pitcher in Major League Baseball, and it was almost impossible to envision anyone catching Skenes in the award race.

However, Jackson Merrill has completely kicked it into another gear over the course of the past few months.

Merrill went from a slightly-above-average hitter in the first half of the year (.745 OPS, 109 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR), to one of the best hitters in the entire National League since the All-Star break. He has a 2.3 fWAR in 42 games since July 16th, while slashing .321/.349/.629 for a .978 OPS and a 166 wRC+.

His ability to consistently come through for the San Diego Padres in clutch situations reopened the Rookie of the Year conversation, and it’s one that has taken quite the turn over the past few weeks.

Less than a month ago, despite Merrill’s ascending play, Skenes was still the favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. He sat at -160, while Merrill’s odds improved to +105 as of August 16.

In fact, I wrote about how Merrill was probably the deserving winner of the award, but that Skenes was likely to edge him out due to his star power and the national attention that he draws every time he takes the mound.

Fast forward a few weeks, and Merrill has completely flipped the narrative.

Below are the current NL Rookie of the Year odds, courtesy of BetMGM:

Jackson Merrill is now the significant favorite at -1400 with about three weeks left to play in the regular season.

Since the All-Star break, Skenes fell from a -1200 favorite to a +850 underdog. As I said, things can change quite quickly in Major League Baseball.

It’s not as if Skenes’ production has completely fallen off over the course of the past few weeks, however. He’s still been one of the most dominant pitchers in Major League Baseball, and he has checked all the necessary boxes in compiling a case to take home the hardware.

There just happens to be several hurdles working against Skenes as we approach the end of the regular season.

First off, the Pirates have fallen out of the playoff picture entirely.

Heading into the month of August, the Pirates were two games above .500 and were just two games out of a playoff spot. Now, they sit eight games below .500 and 10 games out of the Wild Card picture.

On the flip side, the Padres have been one of the hottest teams in baseball in the second half of the season. Not only are they within striking distance of the first-place Dodgers in the NL West, but Merrill has led the way for the Padres’ second-half surge up the standings.

When comparing the value of a pitcher who goes every fifth day for a team that is out of contention to a player who is leading the charge for a ball club with serious World Series aspirations, voters will often see more value in the latter.

Secondly, Skenes got a late start to the season, and his lack of innings is going to cast a shadow on his Rookie of the Year candidacy. While Merill has been in the Padres’ lineup since day one of the 2024 season, Skenes doesn’t even have enough innings to register on qualified leaderboards.

With that being said, when looking at what Skenes has done since he’s gotten the call to the big leagues, he’s been one of the best arms in the entire sport and is still more than deserving to be the NL Rookie of the Year.

Skenes’ Domination

Since May 11, the day Skenes made his MLB debut, no pitcher in baseball has a lower ERA than Skenes. Yes, his 2.13 ERA over that stretch is even better than the two favorites to take home the NL and AL Cy Young award in Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal.

He’s not only been one of the best rookies in baseball, but he’s been one of the most dominant pitchers in the entire sport since he debuted.

Since his callup, Skenes is fourth among pitchers in fWAR (3.3); third in FIP (2.76); second in SIERA (2.94); second in WHIP (0.98); and third in opponent batting average (.200).

Not only is he posting some of the best run prevention metrics in baseball, but he’s doing it with pure dominance on the mound as well.

Skenes has the second-best strikeout rate in baseball at 32.0% since his debut.

He also has the second-best K-BB% in the league at 25.2%. Not to mention, he’s generating those dazzling strikeout numbers all while generating an impressive ground-ball rate of 49.8%, which is in the top 15 percent of baseball.

Hitters aren’t making contact often on his pitches, sporting a whiff rate of 28.3%. And yet, when they are making contact, Skenes limits the damage better than anyone.

He’s in the 95th percentile in expected ERA (2.74), and he’s in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average (.201) and expected slugging percentage (.320). Skenes is allowing a hard-hit rate of just 36.7%, all while posting a well-above-average barrel rate of 5.6%.

Frankly, Skenes is passing all tests with flying colors, and there isn’t much more that he can do in order to win the NL Rookie of the Year. And still, the odds remain heavily stacked against him.

Can Skenes Close the Gap?

Needless to say, Skenes needs to continue to pitch like the generational talent that he is if he wants to catch Jackson Merrill. Not only that, but Merrill’s performance will likely need to see quite a substantial dip in order for the odds to shift back in Skenes’ favor.

Not to mention, there is still the looming possibility that the Pirates manage Skenes’ workload as the regular season comes to an end.

While it’s been a highly-discussed topic in recent weeks, skipper Derek Shelton said a few weeks back that “there is no immediate plan to shut him down.” Shelton also acknowledged that “he will not pitch on regular rest the rest of the year”, meaning, while he likely isn’t to be shut down completely, Skenes’ workload could certainly be restricted.

Now, whether or not that sentiment has changed as the Pirates have fallen in the standings remains unknown. But the hurdle of eclipsing enough innings to storm back into the Rookie of the Year race looks rather unlikely at this point in the season, which is reflected in the betting odds.

If the Pirates were fighting for a Wild Card spot and Paul Skenes was leading them into October, then there would likely be a completely different narrative surrounding this award race, and the odds wouldn’t be so lopsided.

Instead, it’s Merrill who has been putting out highlight-reel plays during the most important stretch of the Padres’ season.

Whether or not it’s fair to judge Skene’s Rookie of the Year candidacy on the performance of the Pirates when he’s pitching once a week remains a point of contention. It’s simply another example of how hard it is to compare a pitcher to a hitter when deciding who is worthy of a season-long award.

Truly, both players are very deserving of the the NL Rookie of the Year honor. Had they not be doing it in the same year, or perhaps even in the same league, both would likely be running away with the award.

Regardless of if Skenes pulls out the comeback or not, he still put together one of the more impressive seasons that we have seen from a rookie pitcher in quite some time.

It’s a rookie campaign that shouldn’t be glossed over, and he’s already looking the part of being the next great pitcher to take over Major League Baseball for years to come.