What Should the Pittsburgh Pirates Do With Paul Skenes?

Here’s what they shouldn’t (and likely won’t) do: shut Paul Skenes down.

Now before we jump into the debate over how the Pittsburgh Pirates should manage their 22-year-old ace, it’s important to provide context around how we got here in the first place.

On Monday, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Stephen Nesbitt and Zack Meisel jointly reported that the Pirates could be tempted to shut down Skenes in the midst of his dominant rookie campaign, though they made the important distinction of saying that Pittsburgh doesn’t have plans to do so… currently.

Currently is an important word in this scenario, because it leaves the door open, at least in theory, for the Pirates to reverse course. And it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see them do just that, given the alleged “fragility” of young starting pitchers in baseball these days.

But what exactly are the Pirates’ options with Paul Skenes? Let’s break them down.

Option 1: “Double manipulation”

This is exactly what it sounds like: The Pirates are trying to bend the rules, twice. Allow me to explain.

First, Pittsburgh delayed Skenes’ inevitable MLB debut by having him start the 2024 season in Triple-A, despite him clearly not needing much of a tune-up. The real reason for that maneuver, though? To gain an extra year of arbitration, as is a fairly common practice, especially for small-market clubs like the Pirates.

Here’s where things get dicey, though. Skenes could easily speed up his timeline to free agency thanks to a 2022 rule instituted by MLB and the Players’ Association, which states that the top two Rookie of the Year vote getters in both the American and National Leagues automatically earn a full year of service time no matter how long they play in the majors that season.

That matters, big time. As Rosenthal, Meisel and Nesbitt write in their article:

“The new rule effectively puts voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America in position to deprive a low-revenue team such as the Pirates an extra year of a superstar player — a far more consequential outcome than the individual cash bonuses that are frequently tied to the awards.”

That extra year, or lack thereof, could make a massive difference for both parties. For the Pirates, their chances of inking Skenes long term are already low enough, meaning they would be incentivized to retain that additional arbitration year. But for Skenes, that year of service time would speed up his free agency window, allowing him to reach the open market at age 27 instead of 28. And the Pirates can’t even recoup a draft pick through the recently-implemented Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), which rewards teams for starting their rookies on the big league roster out of spring training.

So what could Pittsburgh do in response? They could try convincing the BBWAA to push Skenes down the Rookie of the Year ballot by limiting his innings and allowing other rookies to ‘surpass’ him, therefore preventing a top-two finish. That’s pretty unethical (thus the “double manipulation”), but it would nonetheless seem to salvage something out of this otherwise-muddy situation the Pirates find themselves in.

Option 2: A complete shutdown

Let’s again preface this by saying a shutdown isn’t currently in play for Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But the possibility can’t be ruled out, either.

As mentioned in Option 1, there are a lot of reasons that could entice the Pirates to shut Skenes down, an obvious one being his long-term health. Another is to try and prevent a top-two Rookie of the Year finish. This is also unlikely, however, given that the 22-year-old started the All-Star Game for the National League (right in the thick of the spotlight) and has been close to must-watch TV every start. In fact, Skenes was still viewed as the NL Rookie of the Year favorite as of August 16.

Not to mention, Pittsburgh has fallen out of contention fast in the second half. If they hadn’t lost 10 in a row as they did recently, perhaps this would be an entirely different discussion. Instead, the Pirates find themselves looking to make the most of their young ace, opting to preserve his long-term health over instant gratification.

Still, a complete shutdown seems extreme. With so little to gain at this point, why bother pumping the breaks on Skenes every fifth day? If nothing else, the Pirates can feel good knowing they’ve brought some relevancy back to PNC Park.

Option 3: Limiting Paul Skenes’ innings

This is the likeliest scenario, and the one Rosenthal is reporting that Pittsburgh could potentially implement.

Skenes has already thrown 98 MLB innings in 2024, which is added to a composite total with the minor league innings he tossed at the beginning of the season (27.1 innings pitched, to be exact). That amounts to 125.1 innings pitched across all levels.

His career-high innings pitched in a single season? 129.1, which came last season between college and the start of his pro career after being drafted first overall in 2023 out of LSU.

Therefore, even if the Pirates “limit” Skenes’ innings the rest of this season, he would still easily surpass his personal high from a year ago, considering he’s a mere four frames from tying it.

Limiting innings isn’t a new phenomenon by any means. In fact, the Chicago White Sox are taking the same action with their own young starter in Garrett Crochet this season. And countless other young pitchers have faced strict innings counts in recent years.

But for now, you won’t be hearing any innings cap talk in Pittsburgh. At least not if you ask their GM Ben Cherington, as Rosenthal did:

“Trying to nail a specific innings total, I’m certainly not smart enough for that to be anything more than arbitrary… We’re not going to stop competing. If anybody, position player or pitcher, is in a position where there’s no clear risk to competing, well, then I’m not sure it’s up to me to play God and say [Skenes] shouldn’t be competing.”

The truth is, the Pirates probably know precisely how many innings they want Skenes to throw. They just won’t make that public information. And why should they? All this chatter surrounding a potential shutdown is controversial enough.

Conclusion

Of the three options presented, the Pittsburgh Pirates will most likely go with an innings limitation for Paul Skenes, even though that’s not publicly on the table as of now.

That doesn’t preclude the Pirates from exploring other routes, though, as we observed earlier. A total shutdown is at least a possibility, given that none of Rosenthal’s reporting was definitive on the subject. But once again, that would be an extreme measure. And extreme measures are rarely logical.

As for trying to decrease Skenes’ chances of finishing in the top-two of Rookie of the Year voting after already manipulating his service time at the beginning of the season? Well that’s simply small-market club behavior. Unethical? Possibly. But common? More so than you’d expect among teams in the Pirates’ financial position.

Whichever option Pittsburgh chooses, though, none favors the Pirates fans or baseball fans in general who have had the privilege of watching Paul Skenes dominate every fifth day at such a rapid pace.