NL Rookie of the Year Race Shows Why We Need Two Awards

The 2024 National League Rookie of the Year race has been one for the ages.

Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres remain neck and neck in a historic two-man battle for the hardware as we enter the final week of the regular season. In the coming days, each player will look to put the finishing touches on his tremendous rookie campaign.

The award race has featured plenty of twists and turns throughout the season. When Skenes burst onto the scene back in May, it felt as if he was the runaway favorite to win the award, and the betting odds reflected that for quite some time.

And yet, Jackson Merrill has continued to consistently produce at a very high level. He has also managed to elevate his game as the season has progressed – so much so that he overtook Skenes as the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year a few weeks back, despite Skenes’ ascension to stardom.

It feels as if the narrative surrounding this award changes with each successive week. For every clutch home run that Merrill has hit, Skenes has answered with a dominant outing.

The two have been trading off as favorites to take home the hardware for quite some time, and both have compiled deserving cases to be the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year.

Jackson Merrill Has Been the Most Valuable Rookie

Jackson Merrill has been terrific all season long, and he’s doing it at a premier position for a Padres team that has serious World Series aspirations heading into October.

Back in the middle of August, I wrote about how Jackson Merrill deserved to be the NL Rookie of the Year. He was one of the hottest hitters in baseball at that time, but the biggest hurdle standing in his way was the generational talent of Paul Skenes, along with the national attention that Skenes was drawing.

Reflecting on that piece as the regular season comes to an end, many of the points for (and against) Merrill still remain true today.

No rookie has been more valuable than Merrill this season, as he leads all rookies in fWAR with 5.1. That number is more than a full win better than that of the next closest position player, and it puts Merrill 17th in all of baseball in position player fWAR. His contributions in so many different areas of the game have made him an extremely valuable asset for San Diego.

Despite learning a new position (center field) this season, Merrill ranks in the 95th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) with 10. He’s also swiped 16 bases while sitting in the top quarter percent of baseball in average sprint speed (28.4).

Most notably, however, his abilities at the plate continue to shine through for the Padres.

Merrill is near the top or leading the way in many major offensive categories. Sporting a wRC+ of 130 to go with an OPS of .826, Merrill leads all rookies in hits (158), homers (24), and RBIs (89). He is also tied for first among NL rookies in doubles (29) and triples (6).

Not only does Merrill lead qualified rookies in batting average (.292), but he’s also hitting for power at a high level. He leads all rookies in slugging percentage at .503 (min. 350 PA), and he leads NL rookies in isolated power at .209.

Most impressively, Merrill is generating those types of power numbers while striking out just 17.5% of the time.

Not only that, but in late and close games (as defined by Baseball Savant), Merrill is slashing .278/.355/.611 for a .966 OPS in 63 plate appearances. Posting those types of metrics, as a rookie no less, is truly impressive and speaks to Merrill’s ability to show up on the biggest stage.

He’s been a key cog in the Padres’ lineup, coming through in the clutch in the most important moments.

The only issue with Merrill’s Rookie of the Year case, however, is one particular hurler out of Pittsburgh, who is putting together one of the most historic rookie pitching performances we have ever seen.

Merrill Has Been Great, But Skenes Has Been Historic

Just a few weeks back, I put together a piece highlighting Skenes’ case for Rookie of the Year, despite the award race appearing all but over.

While Skenes was checking all the right boxes, he needed to take his game to an even higher level in the coming weeks if he wanted to catch Merrill at the top of the betting odds.

At the time that piece was written, Merrill was a -1400 favorite to win the award, while Skenes was a +850 underdog, according to BetMGM.

Now, just two weeks later, Skenes has passed Merrill once again in the odds. Heading into play Wednesday, Skenes sits as a -155 favorite, while Merrill’s odds have fallen to +110.

The massive, and quite frankly improbable, shift in odds is a testament to just how ridiculous Paul Skenes has been each and every time he takes the mound, specifically over his past few starts.

Since that article was written, Skenes has made three more starts and has accumulated 17 more innings pitched. In those starts, he allowed just two total runs and struck out 25 hitters, all while walking just two batters.

With just one more scheduled start remaining in 2024, Skenes can put the exclamation point on a historic rookie campaign and seal his near-flawless case for NL Rookie of the Year.

Skenes has been virtually untouchable since making his MLB debut, and the only arguments against his Rookie of the Year case are ones that are largely out of his control.

One argument against Skenes is his lack of innings pitched. Skenes only has 131 innings under his belt and will finish his rookie campaign with fewer than 140 total innings.

However, the fact that he didn’t crack the Opening Day roster, despite appearing ready to take over at the big league level, shouldn’t be held against Skenes. That was a decision made by Pittsburgh’s front office.

Additionally, in these season-long award races, players on better teams often tend to receive more attention from voters than those who play for teams that have fallen well out of the playoff picture.

While Merrill certainly deserves credit and praise for leading the way for a surging Padres offense, Skenes’ Rookie of the Year case shouldn’t be diminished because the Pirates scuffled down the stretch. He has excelled at his job every time he’s been called upon, and his club’s struggles shouldn’t be held against him.

Quite frankly, there isn’t much more Skenes could have done this season to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. What he’s done on the mound is historic, and it deserves to be recognized.

There Should Be Two Separate Awards for Rookie of the Year

It’s not easy to compare the value of a positional player to that of a pitcher. Not only is it challenging to simply pin offensive statistics up against pitching metrics, but it’s also difficult to decide how much weight to place on team performance and playing time when the two players in question have entirely different roles on their respective teams.

In reality, an equal argument can be made for both Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill to take home the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Award.

If Skenes wins the Rookie of the Year, few people will have a problem with that. And yet, Merrill will then have nothing to show for what was a tremendous rookie campaign.

Merrill’s production this season (5.1 fWAR, 130 wRC+, 127 OPS+) resembles that of Corbin Carroll’s rookie campaign from 2023 (5.4 fWAR, 132 wRC+, 133 OPS+), and Carroll won the NL Rookie of the Year unanimously a season ago.

Not only will Merrill not win this year’s award in unanimous fashion, but there’s a chance he may not even win the award at all.

Conversely, if Merrill does in fact take home the hardware this season, then Skenes will leave empty-handed after putting together one of the best and most dominant rookie seasons we have ever seen from a starting pitcher.

If the idea of this award is to highlight the league’s most outstanding rookies, then it feels as if more can be done to truly highlight which players have been exceptional in their respective roles without having to choose between a pitcher and a positional player.

What both Skenes and Merrill have been able to accomplish this season deserves enormous praise, and it’s unfortunate that one party will come away empty-handed after the performances they’ve each put together in 2024.