Stage Is Set for an All-Time Great NL Rookie of the Year Race

While the vast majority of eyes may be on the chase for the postseason, there is a race setting up for the Jackie Robinson National League Rookie of the Year which could hold plenty of drama with a crop of rookies that could split votes and stir plenty of debate about who is really best.

According to the most recent odds at BetMGM, Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs, Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres, and Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates are in the lead to capture the NL Rookie of the Year Award, with Skenes currently the betting favorite to win the prize.

With Imanaga and Skenes both putting together fantastic seasons, it’s possible a pitcher could win the award for the first time since Devin Williams captured the honor during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

That year was also the last time that more than two players earned first-place votes from members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

Williams (with 95 points gathered from first-, second- and third-place votes, including 14 first-place votes) edged out Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm (9 first-place votes, 74 points) and San Diego’s Jake Cronenworth (6-first place votes, 74 points) and Tony Gonsolin of the Los Angeles Dodgers (one first-place vote, 11 points).

The last full season with more than two NL rookies getting first-place votes was 2018 when Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. earned 27 first-place nods, while Washington’s Juan Soto earned two and Walker Buehler of the Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed one.

What year could this year’s voting be compared to? I’ll dive into that after a look at this year’s “big three.”

A look at this year’s top trio of NL rookies

Note: All statistics referenced below are through games of August 13, 2024.

Paul Skenes

Let’s start with the odds leader and the powerful rise from Skenes since making his MLB debut on May 11. The top overall pick in the 2023 MLB draft, Skenes has become must-watch baseball during his 15 starts, with his fastball that averages 98.9 mph becoming his calling card as he has registered 115 strikeouts in 92.0 innings.

Just watch how that fastball helped him dominate an at-bat against Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the favorites to win National League Most Valuable Player this season.

But it’s not just about the fastball, as our Patrick Lyons recently wrote after hearing thoughts from Skenes during a media scrum.

“His talents are not just because of his propensity to light up a radar gun — or high-speed cameras in the case of all 30 MLB ballparks these days — but his ability to effectively command four pitches and keep hitters uncomfortable,” Lyons wrote. 

“Each of his four-seamer, splinker, slider and curveball have a whiff percentage of 26.7% or higher. A fifth pitch, changeup, is at 20%, but has only been thrown 19 times.”

Skenes has provided the eye-popping statistics (2.25 ERA/2.73 FIP/0.957 WHIP) to earn NL Rookie of the Year, but don’t be surprised (if he indeed wins) if his victory isn’t a unanimous vote because of the seasons being posted by the next two players.

Shota Imanaga

In his first MLB season after spending eight years in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), the 30-year-old Imanaga has been everything the Chicago Cubs hoped he would be when they signed him to a two-year, $22.5 million deal (with options through 2028).

Through his first 22 starts, Imanaga has posted a 9-2 mark with a 3.16 ERA/3.58 FIP/1.075 WHIP.

His 2.2 bWAR is the highest of any Cubs pitcher, and his 128.1 innings leads the Chicago rotation.

Our own Matthew Marasco detailed what has made Imanaga so special this season in this article.

“Despite having a fastball velocity that is well below MLB average, Imanaga’s fastball has played up, earning him a fastball run value in the top 1% of baseball,” Marasco wrote.

“The magic of Imanaga comes from the way in which he is able to tunnel his fastball with his splitter, with the former staying on plane while the latter tumbles out of the zone away from barrels at the last minute.”

Imanaga’s four-seamer averages just 91.8 mph, yet opponents are hitting just .229 against it, showing just what a special pitch it is.

Note in the video below how the fastball and splitter have that tunneling effect mentioned above.

Jackson Merrill

Finally, let’s look at the only non-pitcher of the group … and one that has blended right into the star-studded lineup fielded by the San Diego Padres.

When he debuted for the Padres on March 20, he became the the youngest center fielder (at age 20) to start on Opening Day since Ken Griffey Jr. Not only did Merrill earn that honor, but he also did it after converting from shortstop, having made 178 of his 186 starts in the minors at shortstop (and none in center field) before that memorable Opening Day in Seoul, Korea, against the Dodgers.

Merrill, however, has shown that he is a quick learner, becoming not only a part of the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year, but also the NL Gold Glove in center field.

But let’s talk about the offensive side of things as well. Merrill is slashing .286/.319/.476 with an OPS+ of 122 and his 2.9 bWAR puts him ahead of veteran Padres such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim.

His expected batting average (xBA) of .297 in 412 at-bats ranks in the top 6% of all MLB players, while his Baserunning Run Value (defined as “a Statcast metric designed to use data to evaluate the performance of baserunners and outfielders in taking or preventing extra bases”) of 3 ties him for third among all MLB players (only behind Arizona’s Corbin Carroll and Boston’s Jarren Duran).

Simply put, Merrill has shown he can be the complete package in his first MLB season.

Is there an NL ROY Race Comp to this year?

If you’re looking for a potential comparison for this year and the split of votes that could well occur, you may need to go all the way back to 2006 when Hanley Ramirez of the Florida Marlins took home the NL Rookie of the Year prize.

However, while Ramirez earned the award, it was by no means a runaway vote.

Granted, it’s interesting to see three Marlins finish among the top four vote-getters (and having six players earn votes in a year when Miami finished 78-84) but it’s also notable to see the split among the top three.

Ramirez and Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman were considered the clear top two by BBWAA representatives, but there were enough voters who thought Dan Uggla deserved recognition as well.

Could the same hold true this season?

There are some factors to consider, and each candidate has his own questions that may be raised by BBWAA members.

Merrill playing on the West Coast and often in late games East Coast voters may not see. Imanaga being 30 and already having played at a high level in Japan. Skenes making his debut in mid-May and discussion about whether the Pirates should shut him down if they fall too far out of the playoff race.

Perhaps those questions will split the vote, and perhaps one or more candidates will struggle in the final month-plus of the regular season. However, as it stands now, this NL Rookie of the Year race could end up being one baseball fans will talk about for years to come.