Can Matthew Boyd Save the Cubs’ Rotation?

Entering the 2026 season, confidence was generally high in the Chicago Cubs‘ starting rotation. They had a mix of young arms coming off strong seasons and veterans who’ve been steady forces for years.

It didn’t take long for that hope to begin to dwindle.

Second-year star Cade Horton exited his second start of the year with an elbow injury that ended his season. That was just the beginning of the injuries.

Since then, Matthew Boyd has been on the injured list twice, Edward Cabrera saw an IL stint, and Jameson Taillon just landed there as well.

Mixed in with the injuries have also been stretches of poor performance. Four of their five regular starters have ERAs that exceed 4.40, with two of them being over 5.00. They have lacked any sort of consistency and are desperately searching for just that.

With Matthew Boyd’s return on the horizon, they may soon find themselves one step closer to stabilizing their rotation.

All stats updated before play on June 18.

Injuries and Inconsistency

Since Matthew Boyd landed on the injured list for the second time, the Cubs’ starting rotation has largely lacked any production from all but one starter. Aside from Ben Brown, who owns a sub-2.00 ERA this season, the Cubs have received little consistency from their starting rotation.

The Cubs placed Boyd on the injured list on May 6, and they have had arguably the worst starting group in baseball since then. Here’s how the Cubs’ rotation has performed since May 6:

They have been hurting badly for stable production from guys they relied heavily on just last season. With the recent loss of Jameson Taillon for at least 15 days, they are hurting even worse.

Opportunities have been given to guys like Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad in the time being. Wicks made two starts, going a total of 6.1 innings and surrendering 11 runs on 13 hits. He has since been optioned back to Triple-A Iowa.

On the other hand, Assad has looked solid, throwing back-to-back scoreless outings in his last two starts and posting a 0.47 ERA over his last 19.1 innings.

This just goes to show the shuffling that has taken place within the rotation, with few pieces actually seeming to work out for now.

The team is still floating above .500, and more recently are showing signs of emerging from the funk that has plagued them over the last six weeks, but their search for reliability in the rotation remains. With Matthew Boyd looking to return in the coming weeks, they may have at least one piece of the puzzle soon enough.

What Boyd Can Provide

In 2025, Boyd was an All-Star and posted a 3.21 ERA over 179.2 innings. He was the 18th most valuable pitcher in terms of fWAR in what was without a doubt the best season of his career.

His contract entered last season as a bit of a question mark but ended up paying off in a big way. Not only did Boyd deliver the best season of his career, but he also provided quality innings deep into October.

In three playoff starts last year, he had a 2.79 ERA and ultimately played his part as best he could in their run at a championship. He was steady, poised, and his experience showed. That presence has been missed with his absence this season.

Helping To Limit Damage

The biggest issue that the rotation has had this season is their inability to limit slug. The starting group has allowed the second-most home runs and have allowed them at the second-highest rate.

One of Boyd’s biggest strengths last season was his ability to limit hard contact and extra-base hits. In 2025, they slugged .369 against him while struggling to consistently make solid contact.

Having just one more arm in the schedule to keep extra-base hits at a minimum will be huge for the outlook as the season progresses. This can help take some of the pressure off guys who have been struggling.

If the Cubs are getting some form of 2025 Matthew Boyd in his return, they will be in much better shape.

Hasn’t Had Time To Find His Groove

Through 24 innings this season, Matthew Boyd has a 6.00 ERA, not exactly someone you would expect to come in and turn things around for the entire rotation. However, there have been many positives that suggest he could thrive in his nearing return.

First, nearly every ERA indicator suggests he’s run into some bad luck.

These metrics obviously do not tell the whole story, and on-field results do matter, but it is encouraging to see that each different indicator suggests he’s due for positive regression.

The likely cause of these stats favoring him like they have has been his high strikeout and low walk rates early.

Through his first five starts, he’s struck out 31 batters as opposed to walking just six of them. Looking at the leaders in K-BB% this season, nobody in the top 10 has an ERA north of 3.20, and though it’s a small sample, Boyd’s 25.0% K-BB% would be among the league’s best this year.

If in Boyd’s return he can continue this trend, there is a very good chance we see that ERA fall and his production rise.

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Can He Save the Rotation?

The Cubs’ rotation issues extend beyond the loss of a single starter. Cade Horton’s season-ending injury removed the organization’s most promising arm, while both Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon have battled with consistency and injuries of their own. Boyd alone does not erase those concerns.

However, the potential production that he will provide can make a significant impact. They simply need reliable innings. If Boyd can return healthy and pitch anywhere close to the level that he showed in 2025, he will be one of the most dependable arms in the rotation.

With limited internal reinforcements expected before the trade deadline, Boyd’s return represents what could be the most meaningful boost the Cubs can receive in the short term.

He may not solve all of the problems, but he can provide the stability needed to keep the group afloat while the front office evaluates additional options.