Breaking Down the Cody Bellinger Trade for the Yankees and Cubs

Nine days ago, the New York Yankees watched outfielder Juan Soto leave the Bronx in favor of their crosstown rival New York Mets. Brian Cashman has officially found his outfield replacement, swinging a deal with the Chicago Cubs for former MVP Cody Bellinger

Following Cubs trade for Kyle Tucker (whom the Yankees were also attached to in trade talks) on Friday, New York set their sights on Bellinger. And after days of rumors and reports of a deal being close, the deal was announced by Jeff Passan Tuesday afternoon.

Bellinger has long been a target for the Yankees, going back to last offseason when he was a big name on the free agent market.

The former Dodger signed a “prove-it” deal with the Cubs before the 2023 season, and after enjoying his best year since his 2019 MVP campaign, once again hit the free agent market.

After waiting out the market until nearly March, Bellinger re-signed with the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal.

The deal was structured with opt-outs after each of the first two years, and after he chose to exercise his option for 2025, he finds himself on the way out of Chicago just a year after putting pen to paper.

Let’s take a look at what this trade entails for both sides.

What New York is Getting

Bellinger is still owed over $50 million over the final two years of the contract so in addition to his services, the Cubs are sending the Yankees $5 million.

Of that money, $2.5 million will be put towards Bellinger’s 2025 salary, while the other half will depend on his decision next offseason.

If he chooses to exercise his 2026 player option, the money will cover that salary, however, if Bellinger opts out of his deal, the $2.5 million will go towards covering the buyout.

Bellinger burst onto the scene in 2017 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, winning the National League Rookie of the Year by slugging a then-NL record 39 home runs as a rookie.

He had a sophomore slump in 2018 as his OPS dropped from .933 to .814, but bounced back in a big way in 2019, en route to claiming the NL MVP award. In that season, he slashed .305/.406/.629 for an OPS of 1.035 while hitting 47 big flies and driving in 115 runs.

His 2020 season was another down year, only hitting .239 in the 60-game COVID-shortened season and suffered a shoulder injury while celebrating a go-ahead home run in the NLCS against the Braves.

That injury hampered his production in 2021 as well as he posted a career-worst .542 OPS. Bellinger’s struggles continued into 2022, as his eventual final tour in Los Angeles saw him hit just .210.

A one-year, $17.5 million contract brought him to Chicago’s North Side in 2023, where he rebuilt his value, finishing 10th in NL MVP voting after hitting .307 with an .881 OPS and 26 home runs.

While he didn’t quite hit those same levels in 2024, Bellinger still hit 18 home runs while only playing 130 games and posted an OPS+ of 111.

While a level below Tucker and Soto in terms of the outfield landscape in baseball, Bellinger is in the 77th percentile in sprint speed and 62nd percentile in OAA. While strikeouts plagued his early seasons, he had cut his K-rate from 26.6% his rookie year to just 15.6% percent in each of the last two.

His new home figures to treat him nicely, as Bellinger’s career 43% pull rate should provide him plenty of help with Yankee Stadium’s friendly dimensions for left-handed hitters. In fact, Bellinger would have been good for 24 home runs in 2024 playing in the Bronx.

With Soto now gone, Bellinger should get reps in center on a daily basis, but can be deployed in either corner spot as well as first base. Taking the everyday center field role however, would allow Aaron Judge to move back to his native spot in right.

Bellinger fits in New York like a glove and his five-tool ability nicely complements a Yankee team that was in desperate need of defense and speed. At the very least he will be a very good rental with the opt-out looming, but if he chooses to stay, will have two cracks to do what his father, Clay, was able to do, winning a World Series with the Yankees in 1999 and 2000.

The Return for the Cubs

This part is much simpler. The Yankees are sending right-handed pitcher Cody Poteet to Chicago as the entire return.

Poteet came up in 2021 with Miami and pitched to a 4.45 ERA across 19 games (nine starts) in 2021 and 2022. He did not pitch in 2023 and signed a deal for league minimum with New York before the 2024 season. He started four games for the Yanks this past season and enjoyed some minimal success, pitching to a 2.22 ERA in 24.1 innings.

Entering his age-30 season, Poteet features a five-pitch mix and could be a mainstay on the Cubs pitching staff in 2025, whether that be out of the bullpen or in a starting role. He also has two options left, so the Cubs can always send him down to Triple-A.

With Tucker taking the reigns of the starting right field job in Wrigleyville and Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong crowding the rest of the outfield, the deal is nothing more than a salary dump for the Cubs, while the Yankees add their latest slugger.