Braves vs. Phillies Matchup Is a Huge Series for Both Teams

Tonight at Truist Park, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will kick off a three-game set. It may only be April 8, but in many ways, this series could be pivotal for both teams.

The Phillies are off to a strong start. At 7-2, they sit in first place in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Braves have limped out of the gate. Their 1-8 record is the worst in the league.

If the Braves can turn things around and sweep their rivals, it would go a long way toward helping them get back in the division race. They would climb to 4-8, while the Phillies would fall to 7-5. That’s only a three-game deficit.

There’s a big difference between six games back and three games back.

On Opening Day, FanGraphs gave Atlanta 64.2% odds to win the division. Philadelphia’s odds were significantly worse, sitting at 21.1%. In other words, in any given simulation of the 2025 season, the Braves were about three times more likely than the Phillies to win the NL East.

It took less than a week for the Phillies to pass the Braves, according to the FanGraphs odds. On April 1, the Braves dropped to 0-6, putting them four games back of the Phillies. That’s the day the Phillies became the favorites in the division:

NL East Division Odds

So, it would be huge for Atlanta to get back to within three games of Philadelphia. Perhaps that would be enough to make the Braves the NL East favorites once again.

The Braves Have a Lot Going for Them in This Series

A sweep is never a likely outcome – especially when an ice-cold team like the Braves takes on a red-hot opponent like the Phillies. Still, if you didn’t know how these two teams had fared over their first few games of the season, you’d probably give the Braves the upper hand.

For one thing, Atlanta has home-field advantage. The Braves went 0-6 on the road to start the season. Upon their return to Truist Park, they crushed the Marlins by a score of 10-0 in their home opener. Coming home is always nice.

What’s more, the Phillies, notoriously difficult to beat at Citizens Bank Park, are much less of a threat when they’re on the road. They had the best record in MLB in home games last season. Conversely, their 41-40 record in away games ranked 13th.

Their home/road splits weren’t quite as dramatic in 2022 or ’23, but still, they ranked higher in home winning percentage than road winning percentage both years. There’s magic in the air for the Phillies at CBP.

On top of that, the Braves have enjoyed two off days at home in a row after their series finale with the Marlins on Sunday was postponed. The Phillies, on the other hand, had to spend their off day on Monday travelling to Atlanta.

The Braves also have a reinforcement joining their lineup tonight: Sean Murphy is back from the IL and expected to make his 2025 debut. While Murphy struggled last season, he is only one year removed from an All-Star campaign. If he gets back on track, he can give this team a nice boost on both sides of the ball.

Finally, Atlanta has a slight advantage when it comes to the probable starting pitching matchups. While Philadelphia has the stronger rotation overall – and the Phillies’ starters have been much better than the Braves’ starters so far in 2025 – things have lined up in the home team’s favor.

Game One: Chris Sale vs. Zack Wheeler

This might be the most exciting pitching matchup so far in the 2025 season.

Zack Wheeler is an ace among aces. Chris Sale is the only NL starter who outpitched him in 2024.

Sale is one of, perhaps, four pitchers in the game (the others being Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Jacob deGrom) that would have the upper hand in a start against Wheeler. The Braves are lucky they have their ace lined up to take on the toughest starter they’ve had to face all season.

Game Two: Grant Holmes vs. Taijuan Walker

A Sale vs. Wheeler-caliber matchup this is not.

There is only one pitcher in the Phillies rotation who I’d say wouldn’t have the edge over Grant Holmes, and it just so happens to be the pitcher scheduled to face him: Taijuan Walker.

As good as Walker looked in his 2025 debut, and as poorly as Holmes performed in his first start of the season, there’s no doubt that Holmes was the far superior pitcher in 2024.

Don’t let their early 2025 numbers fool you. Holmes is a promising arm, while Walker needs to prove he still belongs in a big league rotation.

Game Three: Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Jesús Luzardo

Jesús Luzardo is off to a terrific start with his new team. He has a 1.50 ERA and an incredible 19 strikeouts after his first two starts. He threw seven shutout innings against the Dodgers last week.

Yet, Spencer Schwellenbach is one of the few pitchers in the game who looks even hotter than Luzardo right now. Over 14 innings of work, he has yet to give up a run. His 14 strikeouts seem impressive enough before you even consider that he has only allowed one walk.

Once again, advantage Atlanta.

The Phillies Can Assert Their Superiority

From the Phillies’ perspective, a sweep would put them nine games ahead of the Braves just two weeks into the 2025 season. That’s a massive buffer. Taking such a big lead so early in the season would be huge for Philadelphia’s confidence and comfort levels going forward.

Of course, the Phillies would still have the Mets to worry about, but the Braves would be much less of a threat for the rest of the year.

Beating up on the Braves in April is particularly important when you consider the further reinforcements on their way to Atlanta. At some point in the coming weeks, the Braves will have All-Star hurler Spencer Strider back in their rotation and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. back in their lineup.

So, the next time the Phillies face the Braves (May 27-29), they could be facing a much stronger opponent. Every win they can rack up before Strider and Acuña return is paramount.

It’s also worth remembering that Philadelphia has not won the season series against Atlanta since 2019. A sweep this week would put the Phillies in a strong position to finally change that narrative.

The Braves have the home-field advantage. They have the edge in all three starting pitching matchups. They’ve had the Phillies’ number for years. If the Phillies can sweep them anyway, those three victories would be more than just tallies in the win column. They would be a statement that the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East.