Could Grant Holmes Be the Braves’ Next Breakout Starter?

It’s the question fans around the NL East have been asking all offseason: “How will Holmes do with the full-time transition from reliever to starter?” Of course, they’re talking about Grant Holmes of the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves rotation finds itself in an interesting spot as we close in on the 2025 campaign. While the team awaits Spencer Strider’s return from Tommy John surgery and has not addressed the loss of Max Fried, there will be many questions about the back end of the rotation as the season begins.

Behind Chris Sale, Reynaldo López and Spencer Schwellenbach, the team will likely look through several internal options to fill the last two spots.

Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Dylan Dodd are among some of the available options Atlanta will have to choose from. One more name that could break through in camp is Holmes, a right-hander who served as a starter-reliever hybrid in 2024.

Holmes appeared in 26 games for the Braves last year, 19 as a reliever and seven as a starter. He finished his first big-league season with a 3.56 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 68.1 innings pitched.

He had a 4.01 ERA as a starter and a 3.12 ERA as a reliever. Although the ERA gap would suggest he might work better out of the bullpen, there is still a case for the contrary.

Holmes finished the season with 9.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, putting together a stellar 4.67 K/BB and 19.5% K-BB% in his rookie campaign with Atlanta. The bulk of that work came in his time as a starter.

When Holmes started games for the Braves, he struck out 40 batters in 33.2 IP. As a reliever, he struck out 30 in 34.2 IP. In nearly identical sample sizes, Holmes upped his K/9 from 7.8 to 10.7. He also increased his K-BB% from 17.1% to 21.8%.

The “Chase” for Excellence

Holmes has one clear indistinguishable strength no matter if he’s in the rotation or the bullpen: the ability to generate whiffs both in and out of the strike zone. His 32.4% whiff rate in 2024 was tied for 23rd among the 271 pitchers with at least 1,000 total pitches thrown. Additionally, his 33.4% called strike + whiff rate ranked 11th on that same list.

But it’s not just the volume of swings and misses, it’s where they are coming. Holmes dominated the outside of the strike zone in 2024, with a 35.1% chase rate (per Baseball Savant), the sixth highest among the 275 pitchers with at least 500 pitches thrown outside the zone.

His deceptive breaking balls had hitters fooled all of last year. Holmes had a 45.2% chase rate against his 301 sliders and curveballs as a rookie. It was the second highest chase rate among the 114 pitchers to throw at least 300 breaking balls outside the zone.

Naturally, opposing hitters struggled to make contact against Holmes when they swung outside the zone, but he was one of the best at avoiding contact away from the zone.

Opponents suffered a 61.5% whiff rate when chasing against Holmes, the seventh highest rate among the 255 pitchers to induce at least 100 swings out of the zone. 21.5% of all pitches thrown outside the zone by Holmes last year resulted in swings and misses, the sixth highest rate among the 519 pitchers in 2024 to throw at least 200 such pitches.

This did not stop when Holmes was in the rotation. In fact, it increased. Holmes had a 36.6% chase rate against as a starter, the highest rate among the 267 starting pitchers in 2024 to throw at least 100 pitches outside the zone.

His 21.9% of pitches outside the zone resulting in whiffs didn’t just lead all starters last year, it ranked fifth among the 3,810 seasons by a starting pitcher since 2008 with at least 200 pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Only 2021 Jacob deGrom, 2023 deGrom, 2023 Strider, and 2020 Kenta Maeda ranked ahead of Holmes.

Growing Pains

Not everything about Holmes as a starter last year was perfect, and there are certainly areas in which he can improve. Still, it’s clear he has shown enough talent to warrant another shot with a couple of rotation spots up for grabs.

Like many starters, Holmes struggled last year when facing a lineup multiple times. While many starters run into significant trouble the third time through the lineup, it started for Holmes the second time through last year.

When facing lineups for the first time last year, Holmes produced a .501 OPS against, tied for the eighth lowest among the 231 pitchers with at least 50 batters faced the first time through a lineup.

That number ballooned to .939 the second time through and .950 the third time through. While this issue likely will not get addressed much in spring training, it will be something to watch for should Holmes be given a starting spot.

RosterResource at FanGraphs currently has Holmes penciled in as the Braves’ fourth starter for the beginning of the season. If he is granted the role, it could serve as an audition for him to remain a starter when Strider makes his eventual return.