What Is Cedric Mullins’ Trade Value at This Year’s Deadline?

If there’s one thing all baseball fans can agree on, it’s that the Baltimore Orioles have fallen short of expectations. Their young core has been dragged down by a troubling pitching staff which dug them into a hole too deep to climb out of.

Although they have played better as of late, the Orioles are likely to be sellers at the end of this month with longtime Oriole Cedric Mullins as one of their top available players.

After breaking out in 2021, slashing .291/.360/.518 with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases, Mullins has not been able to reach that same level of production. He’s settled into being a good, but not spectacular, player who can man center, steal some bags, and still leave the yard from time to time.

Set to become a free agent this offseason, Mullins is one of the only rental center fielders on the market whose value could jump more than expected.

Stats were taken prior to play on July 21.

Mullins’ 2025 Season

What a weird season it has been for Mullins. After a scorching start to the year, he put up a .574 OPS in May and .500 in June before bouncing back this month with a .726 OPS. His power output has taken a big drop, with nearly half of his home runs coming in March and April.

In Mullins’ defense, he’s never really been much of a power hitter. His exit velocities have always been subpar, but his pull-heavy approach has allowed him to sneak 15-to-18 balls out each year. He gets into his power by working counts and forcing the pitcher to work back toward the center of the plate and catching mistakes, something he’s not done nearly as much recently.

On the surface, Mullins’ 10.0% walk rate looks great. But when you dive deeper you’ll notice 20 of his 32 walks came in March/April when he clicking on all cylinders. The plate discipline and swing decisions have drastically changed during his struggles in the following months when everything seemed to crater around him.

Another major change his been his ability to hit righties, which he has done at an above-average clip throughout his career, but he is only slashing .194/.268/.384 with a .652 OPS against them this season. Now, I mostly chalk this up to a bad stretch as opposed to Mullins becoming a bad player.

If you have watched Mullins closely over the past few years you will know that he is a streaky player. Ups and downs that ultimately level out to a solid season with a WAR bump due to him manning center is normal for him.

Despite his brutal stretches, Mullins is sitting at a 98 wRC+ while slashing .218/.300/.405 and will still be an attractive trade piece for contenders, especially with outside factors bumping his value.

The Center Field Market

If you are the type to dig through rosters and construct lists of available players, then you might notice that list being shorter than usual. Bottom line, this year’s deadline is looking thin. With so many teams on the bubble and so few rentals available, Mullins is likely to fetch a better return than one might think.

With Byron Buxton staying in Minnesota, the only other regulars in center I could see getting moved outside of Mullins is Luis Robert (75 wRC+). Maybe a sneaky name like Alek Thomas or TJ Friedl could be on the table, but I’d say it isn’t likely. Jarren Duran is really the only other big name that could make sense to patch center for a contender.

Teams that could use a center fielder, or even see Mullins as a corner option, include the Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Padres, and maybe even the Mariners.

One thing you might notice is most of these teams are not scared to make an aggressive move. We aren’t talking about small-market teams or prospect hoarders, but instead these are teams who have shown their willingness to push the chips forward.

The Mets have been using Jeff McNeil in center, and although he’s played well, I’d imagine they would prefer a more natural option. The Dodgers might not trust Michael Conforto or James Outman enough, even when Enrique Hernández comes back. If the Padres do not land Duran, Mullins is a quick pivot. And the Astros probably need the most outfield help, although their prospect pool is thin to match deals.

There is a path where Robert and Duran do not get moved and Mullins becomes a top priority for a number of these teams. Without many impact bats available at other positions, leaning into filling a hole in center with Mullins could even be a top priority.

What Will the Orioles Target in Return?

The same position that tanked their season will likely be the primary area of return: starting pitching.

Kyle Bradish coming back from injury; With years of control still, he will be their ace. Trevor Rogers and Dean Kraemer will be pieces, but Cade Povich hasn’t shown enough, Grayson Rodriguez is often injured, and their farm lacks high-end arms.

Although I don’t think Baltimore will corner themselves into a starter-only return, adding a controllable arm would be huge a team that has shown that they value just that (the Trevor Rogers trade) and has not shown they are willing to spend the money on one in free agency.

Additionally, Mullins being a rental shouldn’t hurt his value that much either. In fact, I think teams will like getting him without a multi-year commitment. There are enough indicators that Mullins could be a risky long-term play, and his expiring contract gives teams financial flexibility this offseason.

The Dodgers have a number of arms who could slide right into the Orioles’ rotation. Change-of-scenery candidate Bobby Miller being one and Landon Knack as another.

Houston has the least amount of pitchers that I see as a fit, and the Mets have a few top prospect arms that Baltimore could use, but it might be too rich for Mullins.

Philadelphia could be the most active, or at least aggressive, team at the deadline. With an aging core, struggling offense, several expiring contract, and a hole in center, Mullins could be seen as an answer even with Kelper and Marsh both being lefties. Mick Abel might be too rich of a price to pay for the Phillies, but Dave Dombroski is a wild man.

Final Thoughts

Although Mullins’ offensive numbers are not great, I still think a team will be willing to give up a legitimate prospect to acquire him. The market is what it is, and Mullins provides value in so many different ways where he can solidify a contender’s center field.

To talk yourself into a bounce back or better second half is not crazy at all. We have seen Mullins play at a high level before. Don’t be surprised if a team parts with a player or package that might come with some shock.

At the end of the day, Mullins’ experience, speed, and defense at a premier position are going to land him on a playoff team. Will it end up paying off? Time will tell.