What Is Plan B if the Astros Don’t Re-Sign Alex Bregman?

Alex Bregman declined the qualifying offer on Nov. 19, making him the newest member of the Astros championship core to enter free agency. 

The Astros had fallback plans in the form of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Framber Valdez to lessen the losses of Carlos Correa, George Springer and Gerrit Cole in years prior, but this time, there aren’t any clear reinforcements to look to for the two-time World Series champions. 

GM Dana Brown has said re-signing Bregman is the Astros’ “biggest priority” this offseason. They’ve reportedly sent an offer to Bregman’s camp – a six-year, $156 million deal – but Bregman and his agent Scott Boras will likely push for a deal closer to the $200 million mark.

Astros owner Jim Crane said this offseason the team “has the wherewithal” to match the 2024 payroll, which stood at its highest ever at $244 million, but Houston has been wary of giving out lengthy deals in the past. The team could be averse to attaching itself to Bregman at a premier position through his age-36 season.

If Bregman leaves the organization he’s been with since 2015, what could be the Astros’ backup plan for the hot corner?

Sign Ha-Seong Kim

The Astros were rumored to be interested in Willy Adames, but his seven-year agreement with the Giants leaves free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim as one of the only options the team can turn to to fill third base in free agency.

A right shoulder issue cost him some playing time in 2024 (he played only 121 games) and could explain a down year offensively in which he hit for a .700 OPS and a 96 OPS+. Yet, he’s still set for a moderate payday after putting up a 5.8 bWAR season in 2023 and winning a Gold Glove for his efforts as a utility man. He proved to be a versatile weapon for the Padres.

A shortstop by trade, he’d have to convert to third base for the majority of his reps if he were to wear an Astros uniform, but the Astros could certainly mix and match to provide Kim playing time all over the infield.

It’s not been reported that the Astros are interested in Kim, and the utility man has other confirmed suitors in the Tigers and Blue Jays. The Braves, while not confirmed to be interested, are certainly a great fit.

His contract is a difficult one to predict due to his down year this past season and the fact he could miss the start of 2025 after shoulder surgery, but if the Astros can get value out of a two- or three-year deal, expect them to at least check in on Kim if they lose out on Bregman.

Top Internal Replacements

Third base is not the only hole to fill if this Houston team wants to return to the World Series. 

The team could spread the money it would’ve spent on Bregman to shore up a top-heavy bullpen or bolster the rotation after losing Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander.

They’ve also been rumored to be interested in a couple of first basemen who could push them over the first luxury tax threshold of $241 million. That includes free agent Christian Walker and trade candidate Cody Bellinger ($27.5 million salary for 2025).

Ultimately, if they feel confident enough in their cheap, internal options at third base it could give them the flexibility to go sign Walker or trade for Bellinger.

Or they could decide to retool and improve upon a farm system that’s ranked 29th according to FanGraphs, trade away an impending free agent like Tucker or Valdez, and let the young guys play it out.

Both of those routes provide paths for internal options to get an opportunity to take over Bregman’s third base void. Here are some of Houston’s internal options at the hot corner for 2025:

Zach Dezenzo

Corner infielder Zach Dezenzo is an option to take over that role, having already earned a 19-game cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2024. 

Ranked as Just Baseball’s 83rd overall prospect by the end of the 2024 season and the Astros’ fifth-ranked prospect (per MLB.com), Dezenzo posted a .914 OPS across High-A and Double-A in 2023. He struggled more at Double-A in 2024, but shone at Triple-A after an August call-up, posting a .998 OPS across 25 games.

His brief stint in the majors didn’t go as smoothly. He struck out 22 times in 19 games and only walked twice, posting a .648 OPS and an 84 WRC+. He did show off plus game power with two 435-foot-plus homers leaving the ballpark at 106.7 MPH and 108.6 MPH. 

But the Astros called up Dezenzo to fill their glaring hole at first base. In his time with the club, he started 12 games there, three at DH and none at third base, even though the majority of his starts in the minors have come at the hot corner.

The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote last month that Dana Brown said Dezenzo has “a little more work to do at third base.”

Dezenzo is likely the Astros’ most talented internal option to take over third base, and how the Astros’ offseason unfolds will likely signal how confident they are in him as a big leaguer.

Shay Whitcomb

Another option is Houston’s 14th-ranked prospect (per MLB Pipeline), infielder Shay Whitcomb, whose five errors at third base in 30 chances with the big league team prove he may have more work to do than Dezenzo to fill the shoes of the Gold Glove-winner Bregman.

A .909 OPS at Triple-A in 2024 translated to a .597 OPS in 41 MLB at-bats during his rookie season. Whitcomb may prove to be more of a depth option for the Astros, playing all four infield positions at Triple-A this season and a few games in the corner outfield spots.

Brice Matthews

The Astros’ third-ranked prospect and 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews shouldn’t be in consideration to join the big league club anytime soon, much less take over starting at third base.

He did put up an .872 OPS at Double-A in 2024 but also struck out 61 times in 42 games. He certainly factors into Houston’s future plans, and he’s shown flashes of promise with the bat, but cutting down on his swing-and-miss isn’t fixable overnight.

Stopgap Free Agent Solution

Signing a stopgap would be the lowest-risk move for the Astros, and there’s no shortage of options on the market.

The team is reported to have considered Jorge Polanco as a backup option to Bregman. Polanco was traded to the Mariners last offseason and had his worst season offensively since the shortened 2020 campaign, posting a 93 OPS+.

What’s more, he has only started 20 games at third base in his 11-year career. Yet, the Astros might believe they can tap into the Polanco of 2021-23, who averaged a 118 OPS+ over that span. 

A reunion with J.D. Davis could also be on the table. A member of the Astros from 2017-18, he boasts a career 111 OPS+ and has shown flashes with the bat with a max exit velocity of 114.7 MPH in his career. 

Free agents Gio Urshela, Jon Berti and Josh Rojas are options that provide positional versatility, which Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada love to utilize – just look at Mauricio Dubon.

Yoan Moncada is another interesting option that’s already garnering interest on the free agent market.

As vice president of scouting for the Atlanta Braves from 2019-22, Brown gets credit for discovering and drafting Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom, who both made jumps to the majors from Double-A in 2022.

He’s also taken low-risk flyers on power-speed combos like Trey Cabbage and Taylor Trammell via trade. Trammell was also a former top prospect like Moncada, ranking 16th overall according to MLB.com in 2019.

Signing Moncada to a low-risk deal if they can’t re-sign Bregman fits Brown’s history of betting on upside. Battling health issues for the past three years, Moncada is a change of scenery candidate who has the potential to sign a prove-it deal.

Will Alex Bregman Return?

That’s a guessing game, and a question only one person, Dana Brown, might know the answer to.

Named GM in January 2023, Brown has prioritized extensions with homegrown players, signing Jose Altuve and Cristian Javier to long-term deals. He has publicly spoken about a Bregman extension since joining the Astros.

That a Bregman deal hasn’t been signed in the almost two years Brown has been with the club might not inspire a lot of confidence in the hearts of Astros fans that the two sides’ asking prices are aligned.

But comments from Crane about the Astros’ championship window and payroll, in addition to a reassurance from Brown that re-signing Bregman is Houston’s “top priority,” might be a glimmer of hope.

Along with saying the team is willing to match last year’s record-high payroll (the Astros paid the luxury tax for the first time), Crane has said before that the Astros’ championship window would “never close” as long as he was the owner. 

While re-signing Bregman would most likely put them over the luxury tax threshold for 2025, factoring in the 2026 payroll might be more important for the Astros. Dead contracts for Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will be off the books after next season, as will Ryan Pressly’s salary, freeing up $51 million.

It’s worth considering if Crane could bite the tax bullet for a second straight season to make a splash with Bregman and figure out the rest later with more payroll flexibility on its way. 

Fans have a right to be skeptical that the team will re-sign this particular star after losing several to free agency, but it’s rarely a smart idea to count out the Astros. This is the same Astros regime that said they weren’t in on any top-tier bullpen pieces last offseason, then signed Josh Hader to a $95 million contract less than a week later.

If he does return, with his willingness to move to second base, Bregman could take over for Jose Altuve once he becomes a free agent in 2029. That probably isn’t part of the Astros’ planning, but it’s still amusing to think about.