The AL West Is Still Anyone’s To Win After the Trade Deadline

The 2024 MLB trade deadline has come and gone, and the AL West remains wide open. The Rangers are 5.5 games behind the Mariners and Astros, who are tied for first place.

Winning the division will be the easiest route to the postseason for the AL West contenders. But if two of the three teams can really heat up over the course of the next two months, it is still possible for two teams from the division to make the playoffs. Possible, but unlikely. The Mariners and Astros are only 3.5 games back in the Wild Card.

All three teams made some moves leading up to the trade deadline, so let’s take a look at what they did and try to figure out who best set themselves up for success.

Houston Astros

Even before the regular season started, the Houston Astros were thin on pitching. Injuries just kept coming, and the club has been running short on arms all year long.

It was no surprise that Houston’s number one priority for the deadline was to go get one, or possibly two starting pitchers. Ultimately, GM Dana Brown got two lefties: starter Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays and reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Yankees.

Kikuchi is a talented rental arm who has struggled as of late. His last eight starts before the deadline were extremely rough. In those games, he threw 38.1 innings with a 7.75 ERA (though a 4.75 FIP). His opponents produced a line of .303/.354/.519. Not exactly ace-type stuff.

That said, he looked sharper in his Astros debut on Friday, tossing 5.2 innings, giving up two earned runs, and striking out 11.

The Astros are hoping Kikuchi can eat some innings and slot into the middle of the rotation.

However, the amount they gave up in this particular trade is what shocked just about everyone. The Astros sent young starter Jake Bloss and budding outfielder Joey Loperfido to Toronto, along with Triple-A talent Will Wagner.

The price for two months of Kikuchi in the regular season was steep.

Houston’s other deal at the deadline was the addition of Yankees reliever Caleb Ferguson. He is also a rental arm. After coming up through the Dodgers organization for the first six years of his career, Ferguson struggled this season with the Yankees.

In 2024, he has pitched 33.1 innings with a 5.13 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 1.500 WHIP. He has walked 16 but struck out 41. A quick glance at Ferguson’s Baseball Savant page shows that he is sitting in the 76th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 71st percentile in whiff percentage.

The Astros will hope that those positive stats (and some new scenery) will be just what he needs.

One more thing that Ferguson brings with him is some playoff experience. He pitched in six games in the 2018 playoffs and then two postseason games last year. In those 5.1 innings pitched, he has five strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA. That could come in handy if the Astros advance past the regular season.

That said, it is curious that a most likely playoff-bound Yankees team would part with a big-league pitcher. They obviously didn’t see him as a fit in the Bronx.

Seattle Mariners

As of deadline day, the Seattle Mariners ranked 20th in wRC+ at 95. They also came in at 28th in MLB in runs scored with 429. Obviously, the offense has been an issue.

President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto went out and traded for a couple of quality veteran bats in Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. Both players were hot in June and July.

Arozarena hit .293/.401/.518 with 13 doubles and eight home runs from June 1 to deadline day. Over the same time, Turner slashed .306/.405/.403, with seven doubles and two home runs.

Not only are the two bats joining the Mariners hot, but they come with a large amount of playoff experience and success between the two of them. Arozarena has played in 33 playoff games, with 11 home runs and an OPS of 1.104. He was the 2020 ALCS MVP.

Turner, who was the NLCS co-MVP with Chris Taylor in 2017, has played in 86 playoff games with a playoff OPS of .830. He was a member of the 2020 World Series champion Dodgers. Needless to say, these two guys can rake, and they are doing so at a high level at the moment.

Seattle also added two relievers to their already stout stable of arms. Both Yimi Garcia (from the Blue Jays) and JT Chargois (from the Marlins) will give the Mariners additional depth as they attempt to pitch their way into, and through, the postseason.

Texas Rangers

The defending World Series champion Texas Rangers have been on quite the journey this season. They got off to an average start but haven’t seen .500 since May 19.

Yet, at the deadline, they found themselves only 3.5 games back of both Seattle and Houston in the AL West.

In what looked like it would be a selling year for the Rangers, a recent surge up the standings has kept the champs in the hunt. Neither the Astros nor the Mariners have been able to fully put Texas away.

Despite having a number of pitchers that will reach free agency at the end of this season, the Rangers decided to stand pat for the most part. The one notable piece they sold was starter Michael Lorenzen, who they sent to the Royals for Triple-A lefty Walter Pennington.

Texas also added two big leaguers at the deadline, which should help the cause. First, they traded for Tiger catcher Carson Kelly. Catcher has been an area in which the Rangers have struggled this year. Kelly should help. He will now split time with Jonah Heim.

The other player that Texas picked up was also from Detroit. They got LHP Andrew Chafin to help bolster the bullpen. The high-leverage reliever is no stranger to being traded at the deadline, as this is the fourth time in his career that he has been moved midseason.

Chafin gives manager Bruce Bochy a quality lefty to go with RHP David Robertson and RHP Kirby Yates at the back of the pen. With his look, demeanor, and stuff, Chafin is sure to become a fan favorite quickly in Arlington.

Which AL West Team Won the Trade Deadline?

Seattle clearly won the trade deadline in the AL West this year. With the addition of not one, but two proven bats that have been hot as of late, and the trades for two more arms, the Mariners’ front office did its part to help get the team to the postseason.

The Astros and Rangers are in a virtual dead heat for the runner-up spot. Even though the Astros did get the higher upside starter in Kikuchi, the Rangers added a few pieces, too. Both teams are also counting on several key pieces returning from injuries.

The real question is: How is the worst division in baseball going to shake out over the rest of the season?

Who Ends Up Taking the AL West?

Based on the trade deadline and the fact that they have the better and deeper pitching staff, the nod has to go to the Mariners. Seattle has the lowest team ERA in the AL at 3.45. Houston comes in at 14th with a 4.00 ERA and Texas is 21st at 4.25.

The biggest question for the Mariners is if they can score enough runs to take the division. With Arozarena and Turner joining the club, along with Julio Rodríguez returning from the IL soon, they should be able to score enough to back up their great pitching.

Seattle should also get J.P. Crawford back sometime at the end of August or the first part of September as he heals from a broken hand.

Houston is still looming large in the AL West and will certainly maintain pressure on the Mariners every step of the way. They haven’t been to seven straight ALCSs by caving in.

And while the Rangers could make things interesting down the stretch, they appear to be lacking what it takes this year – most notably wins. By dropping their first three games immediately after the trade deadline, they now have a record of 52-58. If the champs are going to return to the postseason in 2024, they will have to play phenomenally from here on out.