My first wave of MLB Futures is out, but it’s time for part two. You’ll see a similar style in analysis: We will look at two teams and identify whether their win total is too high or too low. We also have a stat leader longshot, but this time, it’s to lead MLB in hits.

We made nearly 17 units on futures last season, and I hope to continue that hot streak into 2025.

A unit is 1% of your overall bankroll. You have $10,000 to bet with; your unit would be $100. In this article, you’ll find all of my futures with the unit size I’m playing attached to them.

I will likely be releasing three different waves of futures, but in this article, let’s examine the New York Mets and Chicago White Sox and who will lead MLB in hits.

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. Use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500.

Chicago White Sox

In my lifetime, I’ve never seen a Major League Baseball team perform as poorly as the White Sox did in 2024. While I am just 27, you’d have to be in your sixties to disagree with me.

Chicago finished with a 41-121 record, the worst since the 1962 Mets went 40-120. The 1963 Mets went 51-111 the next season, and there is reason to believe the 2025 White Sox can outperform that. Remember, we are betting they won’t be one of the worst teams of all time, and we likely will be in the green as long as they toe the terrible line. The theme here is regression to the mean.

Big Additions & Subtractions

Let’s start with the subtractions. Losing Garrett Crochet is a tough blow; we bet on him in part one. He threw 146 innings for the White Sox last year at a 3.58 ERA. I expect him to explode for the Red Sox this season, but even if he does, that doesn’t make the White Sox worse.

Taking the worst team ever to improve after they lost their most valuable player sounds counterintuitive, but we’ll discuss why it’s creating value for us later.

Losing Crochet stinks, but they brought on two pitchers to this rotation. Martin Perez (4.53 ERA) should take over those 146 innings left by Crochet, albeit far less productive. They also added Bryse Wilson, a 27-year-old who put up a 4.04 ERA in 104 innings for the Brewers last season.

He’s the only actual loss from this team. One could argue that Gavin Sheets is a loss because he’s been a consistent starter for Chicago, but he’s been a deterrent to winning. He was worth -1.5 fWAR in 2023 and -0.9 fWAR in 2024. Yoan Moncada declined his club option, but he played just 12 games for Chicago last season.

The White Sox have been among the more active teams in the market this offseason. They haven’t made any splashy moves because they are clearly in a rebuild, but their moves objectively improve their team.

They added Mike Tauchman (111 wRC+) and Josh Rojas (91 wRC+) to their starting lineup and filled their bench with experienced role players like Brandon Drury, Michael A. Taylor, and Austin Slater. None of these moves moved the needle independently, but they provided more of a safety blanket than the 2024 team.

They also added a slew of lottery minor league deals, including players with short stints of success (James Karinchak and Joey Gallo) and unproven players looking for a shot (Bobby Dalbec, Nick Maton, Cal Mitchell, Justin Dunn, Jonathan Heasley, and more).

Again, if just one of these players helps the team, they will be better than last year.

The White Sox have a higher floor than last year with these additions, and if some of their prospects can step up in 2025, they are likely looking at a season where they don’t lose more than 100 games.

Players I’m High On

Sean Burke

Sean Burke was drafted in the third round by the White Sox in 2021, and now he’s the 14th best prospect in a budding White Sox system. He got as high as 99 MPH with his fastball but routinely sits in the mid-90s with nearly 19 inches of induced vertical break.

Standing 6’6, he drives down the mound, sitting in the 89th percentile of extension. He only threw 19 innings in 2024, but opponents only hit .172 against his fastball.

Burke’s best pitch throughout his minor league career has been his 80 MPH curveball. It produced plenty of whiffs in the minor leagues, and when he came in last year, opponents only hit .077 against it.

He also has a slider he’s been developing, which garnered a whiff rate above 40% last season. Burke also flashes a changeup here and there, but it’s a pitch he only deployed 6% of the time in those first 19 innings. If his command progresses this year, he has the tools to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Edgar Quero

The White Sox are projected to go with Korey Lee as their starting catcher, but I expect that to be short-lived. Quero was acquired in the Lucas Giolito trade to the Angels a few years back, and I’m sure the Angels are kicking themselves for moving him.

He’ll be 22 a few days after Opening Day, but he already has the talent to be a starting MLB catcher in 2025. Quero is a switch-hitting, bat-first catcher who has raked at every minor league level.

He’s been aggressively promoted through the minor leagues due to his affinity for making consistent contact. Quero can get into his power stroke, but what makes him such an appealing prospect is his ability to hit for a high average, limit the strikeouts, and take his walks. As noted in the writeup, he has shades of Nationals catcher Kiebert Ruiz.

Between him and Kyle Teel (acquired in the Garrett Crochet deal), the White Sox are set up well at the catching position for 2025.

Chase Meidroth

Another prospect sent over to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade; Meidroff wasn’t the crown jewel but will be helping the big league team quicker than the other prospects sent over. The infielder has the “best hit tool in the White Sox system.“

Similarly to Quero, power is not his calling card. However, he can still be an above-average hitter this season. Here are some more notes from the article.

His in-zone contact rate of 92.5% was one of the best figures in the minor leagues and paired with just a 15% chase rate; it is easy to understand how he could post the best OBP at the Triple-A level (.437).

While Meidroth will always be hit-over-power, his average exit velocity of 88.6 mph in 2024 is close to the MLB average, with a respectable Hard-Hit rate of 35%.

Like many contact-oriented hitters, Meidroth’s swing is flatter, resulting in some challenges to produce against sinkers in particular, pushing his ground ball rate to 50%. He hedges that with his strong swing decisions and ability to elevate hangers.

ZIPS is bullish on Meidroth in 2025. This projection system has him playing 121 games while putting up a 108 wRC+ and a 2.6 fWAR. He’s another piece that will make the White Sox more exciting in 2025.

The Offense

It can’t get any worse! The 2024 White Sox ranked dead last in batting average, OBP, OPS, runs, and home runs. With some of these players, it’s just about regressing to their median outcomes.

Luis Robert put up a 4.9 fWAR in 2023. In 2024, he posted a 0.5 fWAR. We aren’t asking him to light the world on fire like he did in 2023, but can he put up a three-win season this year? The projections think so, and it’s hard not to believe in him with how much talent he possesses.

Andrew Vaughn has to start hitting at some point. Projections have him putting up a wRC+ over 110 with an fWAR above one. It doesn’t sound like much, but that would be his career year. He was the third overall pick in the draft. At some point, he’s going to have a fine season. He’s 27 with a few seasons under his belt. Why not this year?

They bring in Mike Tauchman and Josh Rojas, two players who aren’t All-Stars by any means but will contribute more than Chicago had at those two positions last year. They also have Lenyn Sosa, a 25-year-old who was unlucky last year based on his quality of contact metrics.

Miguel Vargas went viral after a depressed-looking picture in the White Sox dugout surfaced. He was a top prospect for the Dodgers and showed promise in his stint. He comes over to Chicago and lays an egg. Projections have him as an above-average hitter in 2025; with his talent, he should be able to get there.

We’ve discussed Edgar Quero already, but I’m excited about two more players: Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery. Teel and Quero share a position, but it’s in the White Sox’s best interest to have both bats in the lineup. All three share a mature approach at the plate and can tap into more power than most of the current lineup.

Will they be a bottom-five offense in baseball? Definitely. Will they be better than last year? I believe so, and that’s all we care about, with the lowest win total in MLB history.

Starting Pitching

The White Sox rotation today will likely look nowhere near what it will be in September. Right now, there are a slew of younger pitchers with some upside mixed in with Martin Perez. Perez can’t sniff Crochet’s dominance, but he can at least fill those innings. From there, it’s a crapshoot, but a few diamonds are in the rough.

We already discussed Sean Burke, who has the makings of a mini-breakout. They also have Jonathan Cannon, who won’t light up the radar gun but will likely pitch to a mid-4s ERA if he stays healthy. It’s not great, but there is value at just 24 years old.

Bryce Wilson is another arm who looked decent for the Brewers last season and can give them valuable innings. Chris Flexen led this team in innings last year with 160 and pitching to a 4.95 ERA. Wilson is a better arm than that. It’s about the little improvements here and there that add up.

Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz are two highly regarded prospects at Just Baseball and the top two prospects in the White Sox system. Noah Schultz is a 6’10 left-hander with incredible stuff; he needs more time in the minors to refine it. Hagen Smith looked MLB-ready at Arkansas and expects to be up with the big-league club soon.

Jairo Iriarte is another intriguing arm who threw six innings for the White Sox last year. The 23-year-old has carved through the minor leagues, and now with more opportunities, could flash that potential as soon as this season.

Mason Adams and Nick Nastrini will also make a few starts. Adams is similar to Jonathan Cannon in that both have command over stuff. They’ll throw plenty of strikes but don’t have an overwhelming pitch mix. Nastrini is the opposite. He’s got great stuff, routinely sitting above 10 K/9 in the minors, but his issue is command.

Drew Thorpe was one of the main pieces in the Juan Soto deal, accompanying Michael King to San Diego. He became the central piece in the Dylan Cease trade to the White Sox in just a few months. He’s one of the better pitching prospects in the game; the only issue is staying on the field. He should make his return sometime in May to assist this rotation.

It will be rough sledding for this rotation, but there are more than a few arms to dream on. That’s not something the White Sox could say last year.

Bullpen

Similar to the starting rotation, the bullpen looks ugly on the surface, but there are young arms on the way with something to prove. Jordan Leasure is a name to keep an eye on.

A young pitcher with above-average stuff, he’s had difficulty throwing strikes. He had big strikeout numbers in the minors, but again, his command is the only thing that’s held him back. He could be a solid reliever if he can make a few tweaks.

Gus Varland came over from the Dodgers, throwing 20 innings at a 3.54 ERA with a 2.04 FIP for the White Sox last year. He can be an above-average arm at just 28 years old. Justin Anderson threw 53 innings for the White Sox last year, and the only thing holding him back is the amount of walks he gave up.

It will be one of baseball’s worst bullpens, likely the worst. However, they have plenty of young arms, which I mentioned in the starting rotation, that will ease themselves into this bullpen. There is some upside here.

Overall Outlook

This team is going to be terrible. They likely will finish with the worst record in the league. But after the teardown that’s hit the White Sox over the last few seasons, there is a ton of young talent. A young team playing with nothing to lose can surprise people.

It comes down to trusting the projections. I have the White Sox line at 56.5, and I’m the low man when looking at public predictions. FanGraphs projection models have the White Sox winning anywhere from 58 games to 65. PECOTA has them projected at 61.6 wins. Every projection system, including mine, has at least a three-win gap over the posted line.

We discussed last year’s one-run rule when we hammered the Marlins under win total. They were historically good in one-run games, and that often normalizes over a larger sample.

A lucky bounce can decide close contests, and the White Sox were on the wrong side of almost every single one. They went 13-29 in one-run games, including 4-10 in extra innings. No matter how bad you are, bad luck is sprinkled in there. Their expected win total was 48-114. That’s still horrible, but seven wins better than their actual record.

Another stat I expect to regress to the mean is their 10-42 record within their division. The division is still solid, but that’s a complete anomaly when we look back at baseball’s history, taking on division rivals.

Improving slightly in both areas should take them in the 50s. If Luis Robert can give them a good first half, and a few young players break out, this team will likely finish with more than 54 wins. This will be a fun one to sweat.

The Pick: Chicago White Sox Over 53.5 Wins (-110) Risk 2.75 Units

New York Mets

The Mets had a magical year in 2024, finishing 89-73 and making a run to the NLCS, eventually losing to the World Series Champion Dodgers. Francisco Lindor almost won an MVP, Jose Iglesias hit .337 and produced a hit song, and David Peterson pitched to a 2.90 ERA.

Everything seemed right for them last year, and then they signed Juan Soto to the largest deal in MLB history. The hype is real in Queens, but has it gone too far? It might have. Let’s look at the total 2025 Mets win total.

Big Additions & Subtractions

Juan Soto is in a tier with Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez at the plate. He is one of the best hitters of this generation, and that’s why he got the biggest deal in MLB history at 765 million. His salary is egregious because he’s a below average defender in a non-premium position, but the bat is on an inner-circle Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

They stole another Yankee away this offseason; Clay Holmes. He’s been an above-average reliever, but decided to give it a go as a starter. We’ve already seen him display a few new pitches in spring training; the kick-change and a cutter.

Even the biggest Mets fans don’t expect him to be an ace in his first season, but he can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. ATC, the most accurate projection system for pitchers, has him throwing 130 innings at a 3.67 ERA. I wouldn’t expect him to more than double his innings amount from last year, but I expect him to be effective in the innings he does pitch.

They also brought in Griffin Canning for some back-of-the-rotation help and traded for Jose Siri to play center field. Neither move will improve the situation, as Siri is an adjacent move after losing Harrison Bader, and Canning put up a 5.19 ERA last season.

They also signed AJ Minter as a high-leverage arm in the bullpen. He’s a stud, but he is coming off an injury-riddled season. Minter posted a 9.17 K/9 while sitting 94.5 MPH with his fastball, both career lows. I’m not here to tell you he’s falling off; Minter is still a legit bullpen piece. All I’m saying is he’s not what he once was.

The Mets didn’t lose a star this offseason but they had to let some solid players go. Luis Severino led the team in innings with 182 and pitched to a 3.91 ERA.

Jose Iglesias was a sparkplug in the clubhouse and hit .337 last season. Jose Quintana threw 170 innings last season to a 3.75 ERA. JD Martinez put up a 108 wRC+ with 120 games. Adam Ottavino threw 56 innings in the bullpen to a 4.34 ERA and even picked up a save. There are many valuable losses here that they didn’t address after giving Soto enough money to buy an island.

Regression

They went 28-16 in one-run games, the best mark in the league. One-run-game records often fluctuate from season to season. We love baseball so much because anything can happen at any moment, and the Mets were on the right side of nearly every significant moment last year.

Plenty of factors can help teams close the gap in one-run games, like a great bullpen or a manager who knows how to press the right buttons, but it still doesn’t explain a record that great.

For example, Stephen Vogt won the AL Manager of the Year last year, and the Guardians had a historically great bullpen. Cleveland went 26-19 in one-run games, a few games below the Mets. The Mets bullpen finished 17th in ERA last season.

The 98-win Dodgers with a great manager and elite bullpen went 21-17 in one-run games last year. The Colorado Rockies had a better record in one-run games, going 26-21. That should go to show how fluky that stat is year over year.

Their +71 run differential was rivaled by the 83-win Chicago Cubs (+67) and the 85-win Mariners (+69). If only a few of these close games didn’t go the Mets’ way last year, they likely wouldn’t have made the playoffs. Even with Juan Soto, this team is due for standard negative regression.

Offense

The Mets will be a good team no matter what because of their stacked lineup. The 2024 Mets’ offense finished 7th in wRC+ and ninth in OPS. Now that they have added Juan Soto, we should expect them to be among the top five lineups in baseball.

The Mets lineup is projected to have seven players with a wRC+ over 100. A core of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso is already among the leagues’ best trios, but Mark Vientos took a significant step forward last season.

We also can’t forget Brandon Nimmo, one of the better left-fielders in the game. I expect Francisco Alvarez to take a slight step up offensively, and Jesse Winker should continue to hit in the DH spot.

Jeff McNeil had drastically different splits pre- and post-All-Star break last year. He posted an abysmal 70 wRC+ in the first half before a 156 wRC+ in the second. He was right around league-average (97 wRC+), where he has been the past two seasons and will likely be in 2025.

Luisangel Acuna looked fantastic in his first stint last year, but it was 14 games. Brett Baty is likely to get his third big-league chance, and he still has potential, but he struggled in his first two. Former top prospect Ronny Mauricio re-enters the fold this year, but he’s coming off a lost year due to a torn ACL, making him a complete Wild Card.

Jose Siri is more of a defensive-minded pick-up, but he can be a threat in the power department while racking up stolen bases.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team lead the league in home runs, primarily if Mark Vientos builds on his 2024 campaign. Right now, I think they have the third-best lineup in baseball behind the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. The lineup is not the reason we are fading them.

Starting Pitching

Beyond general regression for the team, the starting rotation is why we are fading the Mets in 2025. FanGraphs Depth Charts rank the Mets’ rotation as the 21st best in baseball.

That’s already concerning, but that’s their projection with 159 innings from Sean Manaea and 102 innings from Frankie Montas. Manaea was shut down recently with an oblique injury, and estimates have him returning to the rotation at the end of April.

It makes sense that Manaea’s body is already breaking down. He’s 33 years old and he’s never pitched as many innings as he did last year. He set his record with 181 2/3 in the regular season and threw 19 innings in the playoffs, taking him one out away from 200.

His previous high was 179 with Oakland back in 2021. I expect him to deliver once he’s back, but he would not be a pitcher I’m buying in 2025.

Frankie Montas hasn’t been very effective since 2021, and he’s also on the IL to start the season. He has a high-grade right lat strain that will keep him from throwing for 6-8 weeks. Estimates have him returning in mid-May. The jury is still out on whether he can be effective this season, as he’s put up a 4.43 ERA while averaging 99 innings a season since 2021.

Similar to Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga will be effective on a per-inning basis. I have concerns about how many innings he’s going to throw. A low end projection has him throwing 138 innings, and the high end has him at 163. I think it’s foolish to expect 163 innings from Senga coming off two different injuries. He suffered a shoulder strain in spring training, and then dealt with a calf injury that limited his 2024 campaign to just five innings.

Dating back to his time in the NPB, he’s only thrown over 150 innings thrice in 13 seasons. When he was 23, he tossed 177 innings in 2016. In 2019, as a 26-year-old, he threw 180 innings and then 166 in his first season with the Mets. He’s no spring chicken either, at 32 years old. ATC projects him for a 3.72 ERA in 150 innings.

David Peterson is coming off a career year, but is it sustainable?

In 2023, he pitched to a 5.03 ERA with a 10.38 K/9. In 2024, he pitched to a 2.90 with a 7.51 K/9. He’s widely inconsistent, but his xERA stayed largely the same over the past two seasons. In 2023, it was 4.96; in 2024, it was 4.59. ATC projects him for a 3.86 ERA in 139 innings, which feels right.

Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, and Griffin Canning round out the rotation. Megill has the most upside of any of them, but he still has his issues. He’s routinely susceptible to allowing hard-contact and allowing walks. Blackburn and Canning are replacement-level pitchers, but none of these arms have ever had an entire season with an ERA below 4.00.

One arm that could make some noise for them this season is Brandon Sproat. Unfortunately, former top prospect Christian Scott is out for the season, but Sproat could be the better option. He dominated High A and Double-A last season, but got heat-checked in Triple A.

He’ll likely start the year in the minors, but he could help in 2025.

Blade Tidwell is another top prospect who could make a big-league impact, as he just impressed in Spring Training by pitching an immaculate inning against a Rays lineup full of big leaguers.

Last year, Tidwell pitched 85 innings at Triple-A, so he is only a call away. The problem is that outside this flash in the pan in spring, Tidwell is coming off a largely disappointing stint at the highest level of the minors, posting a 5.93 ERA at Triple-A in 2024.

You can’t count on Sproat or Tidwell to solve all of this rotation’s problems, but both have easier ceilings to buy into than the collection of back-end arms the Mets are planning to trot out on their big league roster.

There is a real chance the Mets have a bottom-10 rotation. Among teams with projected win totals over 90, no team has a rotation like this. The only squad that compares is the Orioles, but they are in the 88.5 range.

Bullpen

Per Fangraphs Depth Charts, the Mets have the projected eighth-best bullpen in baseball, and I agree with the ranking. Edwin Diaz is still one of the premier closers in baseball, and AJ Minter is a great option to get his team to a save situation.

Jose Butto has proven he can spot start and be a valuable back-end reliever. Reed Garrett and Ryne Stanek are solid pieces, and Dedniel Nunez has plenty of potential after flashing elite stuff in 2024.

This bullpen could creep into the top five if it didn’t have to take on the projected legwork of following this rotation. Outside Sean Manaea, it doesn’t have anyone who consistently projects to exceed five innings.

Senga hasn’t proven it. It’s Holmes’s first year as a starter, and Peterson will likely regress. Manaea is also hurt at the start of the season. The talent is there, but they’ll throw more innings than ever.

Overall Outlook

The Mets’ offense will lead the way here, but with a below average starting rotation already seeing injuries, we have to go under their win total in 2025. Beyond the current roster, this team is due for some negative regression in late game scenarios, and it only takes a few going the other way to keep this team’s win total in the high 80s.

The Mets had the 12th-best run differential last season, and while they made some great additions, the losses must also be accounted for. The most significant loss is the number of innings that Luis Severino and Jose Quintana threw, and the Mets don’t have the arms to replicate that workload. Jose Iglesias’ spark will also be missed.

Due to all the hype surrounding them, they are priced as the fourth-best team in Major League Baseball.

I have them priced similarly to the Diamondbacks and right above the Red Sox with an 89.5 projected win total. While I did see a three-win gap, constituting a three-unit play, we have to factor in deadline moves to address this rotation.

They could even bring back Jose Quintana, who has about three weeks left in the offseason. With regression looming and a bottom-half starting rotation, the Mets’ win total should not be in the 90-win range.

The Pick: New York Mets Under 92.5 Wins (-120) Risk 2.4 Units

MLB Hits Leader

Similarly to our strikeout leader pick, the wrong player is favored in this market. The best projection system for hitters is the Bat X, winning numerous awards for accuracy. The projection system is best with hitters, while ATC leads the way for pitchers.

When we look at who the Bat X projects to lead the league in hits, we see Bobby Witt Jr at the top. OOPSY, a newer Fangraphs projection model, also had Bobby Witt Jr as the hits leader. Every other projection model on Fangraphs has Bobby Witt Jr finishing second to Luis Arraez.

Bobby Witt Jr led the league in hits last year with 211, 11 more than second place Luis Arraez. Arraez is a proven commodity in the hits market, but his upside is capped. He hit .354 in 147 games for the Miami Marlins in 2023, ending with 203 hits, his career high.

Last season, he finished with 200 hits while hitting .314 in 150 games. I don’t see him going much higher than that. The reason he’s my projected second-place finisher is his floor is also very high, as his knack for making consistent contact is unrivaled.

Luis Arraez is a savant when making contact, but it’s not hard contact, as nobody lands more bloop hits. Last year, he only barreled 1.6% of his batted balls, and finished in the ninth percentile of average exit velocity. The park he plays in is also not the best for players trying to rack up hits, as Petco’s Park Factor ranks 25th in that category.

Bobby Witt Jr. is a hit machine. He’s perfectly built for it, and last year, he recorded the fastest sprint speed in MLB, so infield hits are well within reach. He combines lightning speed with elite power, ranking in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s Hard-Hit rate last year dwarfed Arraez’s by 25%. When comparing the two, batted ball quality and speed are uncompetitive.

Bobby Witt Jr is also in one of the premier spots to hit in Major League Baseball. Kaufman’s Park Factor when it comes to hits ranks third in baseball, just trailing Coors Field and Fenway Park.

Last season, Bobby Witt Jr hit .382 with a 1.117 OPS at Kauffman Stadium, where he’ll play half of his games.

He crushed every pitch type last year, hitting over .310 against fastballs, breaking balls, and offspeed pitches. The only area in his game at the plate below average is chase rate, but I don’t mind that when looking at the hits market.

I don’t want him to walk, I want him to swing as much as possible. Bad swing decisions can lead to weaker balls being put in play, but we have the fastest man in baseball legging those out.

Witt Jr. has been incredibly healthy in his first three seasons. He’s only missed 16 games in three years, including 161 of the total 162 last season. He’s also not a right-handed bat that prefers left-handed pitching, 169 of his 211 hits came against righties, putting up a .332 average, which was a better mark than his .316 average against lefties.

He is the ideal hit accumulator in baseball right now, using the formula that led to 217 hits for Ronald Acuna Jr. two years ago and Trea Turner’s reign over this category in the early parts of the 2020s decade.

I have Bobby Witt Jr. priced at +550, with Luis Arraez coming in second at +750. Following those two are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. Bobby Witt Jr. is priced at +800, so I see plenty of value in him leading MLB in hits in 2025.

The Pick: Bobby Witt Jr MLB Hits Leader (+800) Risk 1 Unit