2025 MLB Futures Part 1: Win Totals, Division Odds

We are so back.

Betting on baseball was a wild ride last year. I struggled with my day-to-day picks, losing a little over five units. However, we couldn’t lose once the playoffs hit, collecting 14 units in October. But before the season began, we locked in plenty of futures, and what a year it was.

We made nearly 17 units on futures last season, and I hope to continue that hot streak into 2025.

A unit is 1% of your overall bankroll. Let’s say you have $10,000 to bet with; your unit would be $100. In this article, you’ll find all of my futures with the unit size I’m playing attached to them.

I’ll have plenty of futures for you before the season begins, but these are the first ones that caught my eye. Let’s discuss the 2025 Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have been fantastic for two straight years; they’ll make it a third. This team went to the World Series in 2023 and narrowly missed the playoffs in 2024, finishing 89-73.

They had the best run differential (+98) of any wild card team but didn’t make it. Granted, it was a challenging year to make the playoffs; their division rivals, the Dodgers and Padres, were the two best teams in the National League, and the Braves and Mets also turned in excellent seasons.

They added big pieces this season, and there are more than a few reasons to believe this Diamondbacks team can be one of the best in the game in 2025.

Big Additions & Subtractions

Corbin Burnes, the biggest free-agent pitcher on the market, signed a six-year deal with Arizona to be the team’s new ace. Burnes has been the model of consistency over the last four seasons. He won the CY Young in 2021 with Milwaukee, and over his next three seasons, he is averaging 197 innings at a 3.08 ERA.

Burnes saw a slight decline in his strikeout stuff over these three seasons, but the production is still elite, and he’s still just 30 years old. He has plenty of great years in front of him, and 2025 should be much of the same that we’ve seen since 2021.

Josh Naylor was traded to Arizona in exchange for RHP Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance pick. Losing Christian Walker was a tough blow, but adding the 27-year-old Naylor plugs that hole immediately. Naylor outproduced Walker last year in home runs (31 vs 26), and they had an almost identical wRC+ (118 vs. 119).

Walker is the better defender, but they won’t sacrifice much at the plate.

Losing Joc Pederson is a harsh blow to the lineup. While he predominantly faced right-handed pitching, he crushed baseballs last year to a 151 wRC+ with 23 home runs.

They also lost Josh Bell, who played 41 games for them after being acquired at the deadline. He put up a 123 wRC+ and hit five home runs. It was not a significant loss, but it was a loss nonetheless.

Players I’m High On

You need a collection of stars to survive in the tough National League. The Diamondbacks certainly have that with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Corbin Burnes, and Zac Gallen. To thrive, a team needs a surrounding pool of talent to complement these stars, and they have it in droves.

Gabriel Moreno

Moreno was acquired by Arizona a few years ago from the Blue Jays. At the time, he was one of the best prospects in baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he played only 97 games but accumulated 2.5 fWAR, an improvement from 2023 when he played 111 games at a 2.3 fWAR.

Now he’s 25 years old and is prime for a breakout to establish himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. I believe in the bat due to his elite swing decisions.

He walked north of 11% of the time while striking out less than 15%. He’s not a significant power threat, but he can hit close to .300 while playing strong defense behind the plate.

He’s one of the few catchers in baseball that ranks near the top of framing metrics while having one of the best pop times behind the plate. He’s been solid in his first two seasons with Arizona, but I expect a leap above in 2025.

Brandon Pfaadt

Brandon Pfaadt burst onto the scene in 2022 after he led Triple-A in strikeouts. He got his first shot in the big leagues as a 24-year-old in 2023, and the results weren’t there. It was an up-and-down rookie campaign, but in 2024, we saw what could be a well-above-average starting pitcher.

While he did pitch to a 4.71 ERA, every single one of his ERA predictors had him below a four ERA. He struck out a batter per inning and finished in the 87th percentile in walk rate.

He gave up hard contact at an average rate, but opponents had a .315 BABIP, the fifth-highest among all qualified pitchers.

With over 250 innings under his belt, I expect him to finish with an ERA in the mid-high threes, which would vault him into one of baseball’s best number-four starters. With Burnes, Gallen, and Merrill Kelly in front of him, this has the makings of one of the best rotations in the sport.

Ryne Nelson

The Diamondbacks will likely start with Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation, but they should find a trade partner because Ryne Nelson deserves this role. The Diamondbacks sustained a few injuries, leading to Nelson getting an entire runway as a starter in the second half.

He was arguably Arizona’s best arm, pitching to a 3.23 ERA in 67 innings with a 21% K-BB percentage, which would have been ninth in all of baseball if he kept it up throughout an entire season. Nelson’s fastball improved, as he was getting 19 inches of IVB, blowing it by opposing hitters. His secondary pitches played up off it, and I’m buying these improvements. He has a ton of upside as a five-starter, and if he reaches his ceiling, the Diamondbacks will be a nightmare for other teams.

The Offense:

The 2024 Diamondbacks’ offense was elite. They tied for third with the Orioles in wRC+ at 115 and had the second-highest OPS, trailing the Dodgers. There is reason to believe this offense can be just as good as last year, even though they lost Joc Pederson and Christian Walker.

We already discussed Josh Naylor’s addition and how Gabriel Moreno can take that next step, but I’m also looking at this team’s catalyst, Corbin Carroll.

Corbin Carroll hit .231 last year. While batting average doesn’t matter much anymore in the new world of baseball, we can all agree that’s way out of the norm for him. He dealt with a shoulder issue that hurt him in the first half, putting up a .635 OPS.

Once he got comfortable again, he put up a .919 OPS in the second half. As long as he’s healthy, he’s incredible. We don’t even have to talk about Ketel Marte; he’s a monster, but players like Eugenio Suarez often fall under the radar. Jose Ramirez and Eugenio Suarez were the only players to put up at least a 3.8 fWAR and cross 30 home runs at the third base position last season.

I’m also excited to see how Pavin Smith performs next year. He put up a 142 wRC+ in 2024, not far off from Joc Pederson, albeit in far less action.

They brought back Randall Grichuck as the right-handed platoon bat, and I think those two will create something similar to what they had last year. Gritchuk put up a .914 OPS against lefties last year, and Smith was a .920 against righties.

Geraldo Perdomo is an excellent shortstop on the defensive side, but will we finally see top prospect Jordan Lawler in action? He is our 29th ranked prospect, and here’s what Aram had to say about his outlook.

“There’s an exciting blend of polish and some projection in Lawlar’s game. His elite athleticism and high offensive floor give him a great chance of being an everyday shortstop at the highest level, but there’s still room for more. Lawlar has the ceiling of an All-Star capable of impacting the game in a variety of ways. If he can tap into 20 home-run power in the big leagues, we could see some shades of Trea Turner.”

I expect this offense to take a small step back, but they’ll be in the top ten this season. They have plenty of power, but their ability to steal bases, bunt, and move runners over makes them so tough to beat.

Starting Pitching

I love Arizona this season because of how improved this rotation is. Arizona’s starting pitchers finished with the 27th-best ERA in the league. This is a no-doubt playoff team in 2024 if they were average last year.

Jordan Montgomery threw 117 innings last season to a 6.23 ERA. Among pitchers with at least 110 innings, he was the single worst pitcher by ERA. Merrill Kelly was injured and only threw 73 innings.

Eduardo Rodriguez was terrible (5.04 ERA) and hurt (50 innings last season). Gallen also spent some time on the IL and only threw 148 innings at a 3.65 ERA. Both of those marks are his worst since 2021. The only other pitcher in that rotation was Brandon Pfaadt, coming off an unlucky 2024 campaign.

Now, this rotation adds one of the best pitchers in the sport, Corbin Burnes. Gallen threw 210 innings in the regular season in 2023 and a full workload in the playoffs. It’s understandable to have a rougher year the following year (we bet the under on his strikeout line last year).

This year, he returns fresh after just 146 innings with no additional lift in the playoffs. Merrill Kelly threw 177 innings to a 3.29 ERA in 2023. I don’t expect him to replicate that ERA, but 150 innings this year at a high 3s ERA is a significant improvement.

Brandon Pfaadt leaps, and Ryne Nelson locks down the fifth spot, with Eduardo Rodriguez filling in when needed. They also have Drey Jameson, who has a 2.63 ERA in 65 career innings. Jameson has Tommy John surgery in September of 2023, so he should make a full return in 2025.

While this rotation finished 27th in ERA last year, don’t be shocked if they knock on the door of the top 10 this season.

Bullpen

The Diamondback’s pitching woes weren’t solely on the starters; the bullpen finished 25th in ERA. The talent level in this bullpen should never be in that spot, but when your starter gets pulled early, we see a lot of “filler” innings.

They made a move for Marlins pitcher AJ Puk at last year’s deadline. He found his footing in the bullpen and was arguably baseball’s best reliever in the second half, putting up a diabolical 36% K-BB percentage and a 1.32 ERA.

An entire season of Puk paired with Justin Martinez (2.48 ERA in 72 IP in 2024), and D-Backs fans can dream of one of the best back-end duos in baseball.

We can’t forget mainstays like Kevin Ginkel (3.21 ERA in 70 IP) or Ryan Thompson (3.26 ERA in 66 IP). They also added some intriguing arms in Kendall Graveman and Shelby Miller. Graveman has closer upside, but he is coming off an injury.

Miller is a nice bridge arm to get Arizona through the middle innings. And, of course, you didn’t think I’d forget 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply, did you?

This is likely going to be a middle-of-the-road bullpen. They have firepower at the top and a few nice pieces to complement them.

Overall Outlook

Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick put his money where his mouth is this offseason, and I could not be more excited for this team. The offense can be a top-five unit, and the rotation has so much upside. With a solid bullpen behind them, the Diamondbacks should be one of the best teams overall in baseball next season.

The Diamondbacks line should be at 89.5, so I’m four wins off the market. It should be a four-unit play, but I put that other unit on an exact division bet. As good as they are, they aren’t the Dodgers, but I believe they are the second-best team in the division.

The Picks:

Diamondbacks Over 85.5 Wins (-105) Risk 3.15 Units

“Exact Finish NL West” Dodgers Finish First, Diamondbacks Finish Second (+200) Risk 1 Unit

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are coming off a mediocre season. They finished 81-81 with a +4 run differential—the definition of average.

To rectify this boilerplate roster, they had one of the best off-seasons in the sport. In a weakened AL East and an overall weak American League, the Red Sox have a good chance to be one of the league’s best teams.

Big Additions & Subtractions

This team made a boatload of transactions this offseason. Let’s start with the subtractions. They let two relievers walk; Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. Both threw about 50 innings with respectable ERA’s in the threes. Those aren’t significant blows to this squad, but they will feel them.

They lost Nick Pivetta, a fine starter who tossed 145 innings for them last year with an ERA above four. The most significant loss is outfielder Tyler O’Neil, who clobbered 31 home runs in 113 games.

We can’t overlook the subtractions, but we kinda can based on how good the additions are. The Red Sox ponied up and traded for Garrett Crochet, a flamethrower due for a monster season on the mound. The Red Sox needed a legit ace in their rotation, and I believe they found it in Crochet.

The left-hander led MLB in K/9 at 12.88, the most among any starter with at least 130 innings (including Paul Skenes at 11.50). He pitched to a 3.58 ERA, which is solid, but there is plenty of room to grow, as his underlying ERA predictors all had him in the mid-twos. We’ll talk about him more later on.

They also added third baseman Alex Bregman. Based on his swing path, Bregman is a perfect fit for Fenway Park. He’s a line-drive hitter who will pepper the green monster with doubles. Bregman’s career stats in Fenway Park are legendary.

In 21 career games, Alex Bregman slashes .375/.490/.750 with a 1.240 OPS, nine doubles, and seven home runs. If you look at MLB stat leaders in Fenway Park history, he ranks number one in OPS with a minimum of 75 PA. Not just currently, that’s all time.

Hall-of-Famer Frank Robinson is second with a 1.188 OPS at Fenway Park. Not only is his bat a perfect fit, but he won a Gold Glove at third base last season. Whether at second or third base, Bregman is a fantastic addition.

They also added Walker Buehler. You can look at last year’s stats and be worried, but I would be bullish on Buehler for 2025. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and we saw vintage Buehler during the playoff run for the Dodgers. Now he goes to Boston to team up with Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab, and I believe he’ll bounce back in a big way.

They lost two relievers but added three of them back. Liam Hendriks returns from a hard-fought win over cancer, and they signed Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson. Hendriks and Chapman can create a fearsome duo in the back end, and Justin Wilson can provide filler innings.

A notable addition is Lucas Giolito. He’s ready to go after recovering from Tommy John surgery, giving the Red Sox a six-man rotation with plenty of upside. Overall, the Red Sox had a great offseason and should capitalize on it in 2025.

Players I’m High On

The Red Sox have a core of elite players. Rafael Devers will never stop terrifying opposing pitchers, and Jarren Duran was one of the most valuable players in baseball last year. Garrett Crochet and Tanner Houck form an excellent duo at the top of the rotation, and bringing in Alex Bregman only adds fuel to the fire. Here are a few more players that will elevate the Red Sox above their win total.

Triston Casas

This is the year Triston Casas leaps as one of the better first basemen in all baseball. He’s not likely to add much defensively, but the bat is where the value is.

In 27 games as a rookie, he was 20% better than the league-average hitter. In his first full season in 2023, he was 30% better than average with 24 home runs. He got off to a hot start in April, putting up a 1.003 OPS, but it was short-lived. He went down with a rib injury on April 20th.

When he returned, he didn’t look entirely healthy but still put up a .750 OPS or higher in August and September. It was a lost year for him, but now he’s back and healthy.

Casas has a very high floor. Casas has donkey pop with his 6’5 “, 245-pound frame, but he pairs it with an excellent eye and disciplined approach at the plate. He has a career 14.2% walk rate, the sixth highest in baseball since 2022 with a minimum of 800 PA. He makes well above-average swing decisions, and with a career 45.6% hard-hit rate, the damage is coming as long as he stays healthy.

Brayan Bello

If Brayan Bello reaches his potential this season, the Red Sox can form one of the best rotations in Major League Baseball. It’s crazy to think Bello got the Opening Day nod in 2024, and now he’s likely to be the fourth-best pitcher in this rotation.

That’s how much the Red Sox have improved, but Bello could return to what the Red Sox envisioned for him when he toed the rubber on Opening Day.

He made a pitch usage tweak last season, but it didn’t work. Bello benched his four-seam fastball, siding with a heavy sinker approach to pair with a slider and changeup.

It made sense to do so; the data on his heater wasn’t ideal, so the standard change is to focus on his better pitches. He pitched to a 5.32 ERA in the first half with a .448 SLG against him.

He brought back the fastball in July and, from then on, pitched to a 3.47 ERA in the second half with a .321 SLG against. Bello is still so young, so if these changes lead to a consistent plan of attack, he can finally relax and trust his stuff.

Another reason to be high on Bello is an improved middle infield. The Red Sox are getting Trevor Story back at short (2 OAA and 2 DRS in 26 games last year) and Alex Bregman at second base.

The Red Sox have not had a consistent up-the-middle duo since Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia in 2016. As a heavy ground-ball pitcher, that’s a godsend for a young pitcher like Bello.

Garrett Whitlock

The Red Sox bullpen is the team’s weakness, but the unit is much more enticing with Garrett Whitlock back in the fold. Whitlock’s only issue is health, as he’s been highly effective as a reliever and has even transitioned into the rotation when needed.

The Red Sox are more loaded than they’ve been in a while in the rotation, so Whitlock solidifying a bullpen role should keep him healthy throughout the season.

In the bullpen, Whitlock put up a 2.75 ERA and 2.99 FIP as a reliever in 2022 and a 1.96 ERA and 2.84 FIP in 2021. He split time between the bullpen and rotation from 2023-2024 but was hit with a barrage of injuries. He made four starts last year and pitched to a 1.96 ERA.

He’s got a five-pitch mix, and his stuff plays up in 1-2 inning spurts. I feel much better about the Red Sox bullpen if he can stay healthy.

The Offense

The Red Sox had a top-10 offense in baseball last season. They finished seventh in OPS and a three-way tie for 10th in wRC+. It’s a dynamic attack; they hit for power (seventh in home runs) and stole plenty of bases (ninth). They did this while only having three players record 500 or more plate appearances. This lineup was littered with weaknesses, but now, I’m hard-pressed to find any.

Jarren Duran is arguably the best left fielder in baseball. Rafael Devers is a top-three third baseman. Alex Bregman should be amongst the best second baseman in baseball.

We already spoke at length about Triston Casas at first base. Masataka Yoshida is a solid DH option and, hopefully, can build off his 131 wRC+ in the second half of last season.

Wilyer Abreu was a Rookie of the Year Finalist last year. He’s an above-average offensive piece while being in the 90th percentile of Outs Above Average and 98th percentile in arm strength. He’s yet another well-rounded player in this lineup.

Trevor Story could be labeled a weakness, but that’s only because of his difficulties staying on the field. When he does play, he’s still a great defender and can hit at a league-average rate. Due to his defensive acumen, he can be a three-win player if he puts up a healthy season.

Ceddane Rafaela put up 15 home runs and 19 steals while playing solid defense in center field as a 24-year-old, and the former top prospect still has more in the tank. Connor Wong is coming off a career year, but the data tells us he’s likely to take a step back. Even if he does, he’s a fine-catching option.

The Red Sox also has plenty of firepower coming up in the pipeline. If Trevor Story goes down, they can bring up Kristian Campbell, one of the best prospects in baseball. He’s projected to have a 119 wRC+ next year in the majors and is one of the front-runners for AL Rookie of the Year.

Another frontrunner and number one overall prospect in baseball, Roman Anthony (103 projected wRC+), is also expected to make an impact next year. Marcelo Mayer is also in the mix, so they have plenty of ammunition if these starters go down.

The bench is also much improved. David Hamilton was starting for a good chunk of the season last year, but he’s now in a bench role. It’s the same with Rob Refsnyder, among the better platoon bats against lefties in the majors. This offense was in the top 10 last year, and now it’s better and deeper. Watch out for this lineup.

Starting Pitching

The starting pitching is a big reason I’m backing the Red Sox. We’ll start with the pitcher I’m most enamored with this year in baseball: Garrett Crochet. I will run you through his elite numbers, but after five minutes of watching his highlights from the White Sox, you’ll immediately see why I’m grinning while writing about him.

Garrett Crochet was a first-round pick out of Tennessee, as he flashed a nasty pitch arsenal combined with an enormous frame on the mound. His control was questioned, so he was relegated to a bullpen role with the White Sox. He told Chicago he wanted to be a starter, and in 2024, he got his first opportunity.

After pitching to a 3.02 ERA in 107 innings with 150 strikeouts in the first half, he was named an All-Star. He was the only qualified pitcher in baseball, striking out over 12 batters per nine, and he was at 12.52.

At this point, the White Sox are historically bad, so as any bad team does, they start to test the market for a trade. This leads to an innings limit, and Crochet and the White Sox had an internal dispute about it all that lasted a lot of the second half. He was limited to 3-4 innings a start.

It was a weird second half, but he still struck out 59 batters in 38 innings. After finishing with 146 innings on the year, he struck out 209 batters and led all qualified pitchers in K/9, and it wasn’t even close.

The White Sox defense did him zero favors in helping out the ERA, but we saw his talent. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings, he finished fourth in xERA, third in FIP, and first in xFIP. He’s a lethal weapon with a fresh arm at 25 years old. Tarik Skubal was my CY Young pick last year, and it’s Garrett Crochet this season. I’ll have a pick just focusing on him later.

Tanner Houck emerged last year as the Red Sox’s best pitcher, pitching to a 3.12 ERA in 176 innings. He’s one of the league’s better ground-ball pitchers and, like Bello, should get a boost from his infield defense. He goes from the ace to the number two starter now.

Walker Buehler is a wild card, but one I feel confident in backing. We can’t forget he was a top-five pitcher in the world in 2021, and he showed flashes of his usual self in the playoffs.

Now back and healthy, and working with Andrew Bailey, Buehler should turn in a great season if he remains healthy. We already spoke about Bello, and then it’ll be between Giolito and Kutter Crawford for the fifth spot. Crawford led this staff in innings last year, and now he’s likely the fifth starter. There is so much improvement here.

Bullpen

This is the team’s weakness, but it has some upside. We already spoke about Garrett Whitlock, but Justin Slaten is another arm that emerged as a legit piece. Aroldis Chapman is still throwing fuel, and I’ll always bet on Liam Hendriks coming back strong.

They have a few other decent pieces to round out the unit. This bullpen finished 24th last season in ERA, and I think they can outperform that, but it’ll likely be a bottom-half bullpen. The offseason is also not over yet, so they can still address this position of need.

Overall Outlook

In a wide-open American League, the Red Sox have as good a chance as any to leap. The Orioles failed to address their rotation, and the Yankees had to create Juan Soto in the aggregate. The Blue Jays and the Rays are fine squads, but the Red Sox have as much upside as any.

This team is dangerous. They already have a great offense, but with this new and improved staff, I think they go over their win total and are a great bet to win the division. I have them projected at an 88.5-win total, so it’s a two-unit play for me on the over 86.5 and a half-unit play on the division odds.

I also think Crochet should be the favorite to lead the league in strikeouts, but he isn’t, so I have to bet it. I believe it’s a better bet than betting on his CY Young odds (+600) because the way he wins is striking out more than anyone in baseball can match.

The Picks:

Red Sox Over 86.5 Wins (-105) Risk 2.1 Units

Red Sox Win AL East (+440) Risk 0.5 Units

Garrett Crochet MLB Strikeout Leader (+1100) Risk 1 Unit