NL & AL Rookie of the Year Odds 2026: Who’s MLB’s Next Young Star? (Aug 26)

There may not be a harder award race to predict in sports than MLB’s Rookies of the Year.

Unlike in the NBA or NFL, where the top draft picks enter the league right away and the best of the best are typically known from their first game, picking a rookie to win in the marathon of a 162-game MLB season is a much more difficult task.

Often, the first part of the battle is just getting the rookie to the show to make their MLB debut. Then it’s a matter of staying up. We have seen Rookies of the Year lead their race wire-to-wire, like Corbin Carroll in 2023.

Other times, a clear-cut Rookie of the Year can be harder to find, like when Jonathan India won in 2021, or even when Luis Gil ended up taking home the 2024 award in the American League.

All it takes is a few hot months for any player or pitcher to vault themselves right to the top of a Rookie of the Year race. The question now is which young stars will emerge this year?

This page will be your guide to the updated betting odds throughout the season, as we follow along with what is sure to be a thrilling race for both AL and NL Rookie of the Year.

Let’s dive into the odds to see which superstars are making their presence felt so far in the 2026 MLB ROTY races. All odds provided are courtesy of BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

Current Rookie of the Year Award Odds: Top Contenders for 2026

Before we dive a little bit deeper into the races in each respective league, let’s take a look at the current updated odds from BetMGM in the two Rookie of the Year races.

2026 American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Player	Team	Current Odds	Last Week’s Odds	Opening Odds	Implied Probability
Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians	+4000	+3500	+1000	2.44%
Kevin McGonigle	Detroit Tigers	-800	-450	+600	88.89%
Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	+600	+400	+700	14.29%
Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	OFF THE BOARD	OFF THE BOARD	+1000	—
Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	+5000	+5000	+500	1.96%
Parker Messick	Cleveland Guardians	+1400	+2000	+3000 (4/6)	6.67%
Travis Bazzana	Cleveland Guardians	+8000	+5000	+1400	1.23%

With August almost in the rearview, the AL Rookie of the Year has settled nicely into a two-man race, with a third contestant lurking just behind.

Touching briefly on the player with the third-best odds, Parker Messick in Cleveland is having a solid year with numbers that firmly support his play on the field. To back up his 2.50 ERA, Messick has a 3.08 FIP, which has amounted to 4.2 fWAR.

Although those numbers are solid, Messick comfortably sits outside the top two odds leaders for the ROTY.

Looking to the Southside’s very own, Munetaka Murakami has the best chances to steal the ROTY away from the odds leader in Detroit.

With a .863 OPS and 29 home runs in just 97 games, if it weren’t for a short injury that set him back, there’s a good chance he’d be way closer to Kevin McGonigle in the race.

A lot of the narrative this past winter was whether or not Murakami would be able to adjust to handle high velocity in the majors, and he has more than proven wrong those who doubted him so far.

Circling back to touch on the AL odds leader, McGonigle of the Tigers, fresh off signing an eight-year, $150 million extension, has slashed .280/.381/.427 through the first five months and has a bright red Savant page to back it up.

McGonigle boasts a .353 xwOBA, good for the 85th percentile out of qualified batters this season. Needless to say, BetMGM understands this and will reflect it in his decreasing payout price as the stretch run unfolds.

2026 National League Rookie of the Year Odds

Player	Team	Current Odds	Last Week’s Odds	Opening Odds	Implied Probability
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	+135	+110	+500	42.55%
Konnor Griffin	Pittsburgh Pirates	OFF THE BOARD	OFF THE BOARD	+3000	—
Nolan McLean	New York Mets	+1800	+3000	+340	5.26%
JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals	+105	-155	+700	48.78%
Owen Caissie	Miami Marlins	OFF THE BOARD	OFF THE BOARD	+1400	—
Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco Giants	+15000	+15000	+1200	0.66%
Carson Benge	New York Mets	+450	+3500	+2500	18.18

It made sense that the already somewhat proven Nolan McLean of the New York Mets would open the season as the odds leader for NL ROTY. However, with a difficult month of May, he fell far out of the ROTY race. He has rebounded nicely, bringing his ERA down to 3.21, but it likely won’t be enough to get the job done in terms of taking home some hardware.

When Sal Stewart came hot out of the gates to start the 2026 season, we all thought he would run away with the NL ROTY. That was until he started slumping, allowing others to leap him in the odds. Overall, Stewart has had his ups and downs so far in 2026, but has landed at a solid 121 OPS+ as things stand.

In St. Louis, JJ Wetherholt has had ups and downs of his own, but he has a perfectly respectable 108 OPS+ on the season. That being said, he has accrued most of his NL rookie-leading 4.6 fWAR through elite defense at second base paired with exceptional baserunning.

Notably, Carson Benge of the New York Mets has been scorching earth in August and has launched himself into the conversation, although he still has a sizable gap between him and the two odds leaders. With a 1.014 OPS in August, Benge has pushed his season fWAR mark to 3.2.

We’ve seen voters disregard gaps in WAR before if the offensive output drastically outweighs the overall value, and in this scenario we might be set up for the same outcome if Benge continues to rake at a level Wetherholt cannot. Even if the latter is the more well-rounded player, the voters might sway in a different direction.

As the season sprints to the finish line, it’ll be interesting to see who really pulls away from the pack in the NL race.

How To Follow the MLB Rookie of the Year Odds

When betting on awards futures, timing is everything. Knowing when it is right to strike is half the battle in making sure you are finding value on the board. Consistently keeping tabs on the odds each week will show you how a player’s market is fluctuating, which can help you find the right time to place your future bet.

At the end of the year, BBWAA voters typically decide who wins these awards largely on stats, but narrative and team role certainly do factor in. In 2024, a great case could have been made for Jackson Merrill, but the narrative and sensation of Paul Skenes was too much for him to topple.

Last year, Nick Kurtz mashed his way to win the AL ROTY, while Drake Baldwin took advantage of a relatively weak NL field. Keeping all those aspects in mind can help you pick the right horse in this race.