Disappointing return to the diamond on Tuesday. We went 0-2, and neither pick was very good. We lost the over in Anaheim, and Jake Irvin went far over his strikeouts. They were both plus-money picks, but still, it can’t happen.

Today’s board is limited, but I do have a play on the afternoon slate. Let’s roll.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 54-64 (-12.52 U)

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Spencer Arrighetti vs. Logan Gilbert

I was initially influenced by the Astros’ avoiding the sweep, but the more I researched this game, the more I thought it was a coin flip, even if we disregard both teams’ spots in this series.

Spencer Arrighetti is better than his 6.93 ERA would indicate. He’s rocking a 4.55 xERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, and 4.15 SIERA. He got a rough start, putting up an ERA over ten in April, but he’s been better in May. He also made a pitch usage change over his last few starts.

His fastball is his worst pitch; earlier this season, he threw it nearly 50% of the time. He knows this, as he dropped the usage to 30% over his last few starts, and the results have been better. His curveball has been his most used pitch, and it’s his best one. Opponents are only hitting .171 against it. The Mariners are the second-worst team in the league by xwOBA against right-handed curveballs with the third-highest whiff rate.

This is also his easiest matchup to date. He’s throwing in the best pitching park in baseball, and the Mariners have a 95 wRC+ against righties. That places them 22nd in the league and the worst mark among any team Arrighetti has faced this season. If we look at the last two weeks, that Mariners wRC+ falls to 89, ranking as the sixth worst in the league. They strike out at the highest rate in baseball, which again falls into Arrighetti’s strength.

Logan Gilbert has a rich history against Houston, but the bats were hot before this series began. Maybe they stay cold, but I must rely on the Astros’ fourth-best wRC+ at 123 in the last two weeks. They only trailed the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Cardinals in that span, three of the league’s hottest offenses. They weren’t on a cold stretch before these few games.

They’ve been hurting righties all year. They rank fifth in the league in wRC+, fourth in OPS, and third in batting average against them. Gilbert is great but has not looked as effective in May, putting up a 4.40 ERA compared to a 2.18 in April.

The Astros match up well against fastball/slider pitchers. They have the third-highest xwOBA against right-handed fastballs and sliders, just behind the Yankees and Padres. The Yankees just gave Gilbert more trouble than he’s used to.

Logan Gilbert’s overall numbers against the Astros’ current roster are solid but imperfect. They have a .254 batting average against him as a team, with five players hitting over .280 (Yordan, Altuve, Bregman, Abreu, Dubon). Jeremy Pena ruins it for everyone, as he’s 1-19. He probably won’t get a hit, but the rest of the lineup should be fine.

The Astros bullpen got off to a rough start, but since May began, they have been number two in ERA. The Mariners rank 24th in ERA in May. I don’t see much of an edge on either side. The Mariners are more rested, but the Astros have been much better. Over the entire season, these are the ninth and tenth-ranked bullpens going at each other.

The Mariners have the starting pitching advantage, and that’s where the edges start to get much closer. It should be closer to -125/+105 on the game alone, and I will buy into the Astros avoiding a four-game sweep against a division rival.

These teams are battling. Two games were decided by one run, and the other was a two-run game. It took extra innings for the Mariners to win yesterday. If the Mariners sweep them in four, I’ll tip my cap.

The Pick: Astros ML (+120) Risk 0.833 U to win 1 U