Another winning day! Yesterday, we took the Pirates’ money line over the Cubs, and that wager will be remembered as the most stressful of the season.

The Pirates took a 6-1 lead, and I felt pretty comfortable. I shouldn’t have, as once Skenes exited, Pirates relievers walked four straight, then an infield hit, then two more walks, and the score was 8-6 in favor of the Cubs. Not to mention a two-hour rain delay in between.

Yasmani Grandal came up in the bottom of the fifth and hit a three-run home run to give us the lead, and we never looked back.

Insane game. Let’s hope today’s pick is much easier. Happy Mother’s Day to everyone!

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 46-55 (-9.08 U)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs. Bryce Wilson

I thought about laying -180 on the Brewers yesterday, but I decided to watch the game instead to see if I’d want to bet them in game four. I should have just bet the run line with Milwaukee yesterday, as this Cardinals team remains broken.

The Cardinals have lost seven in a row and are losers of nine of their last ten games. It may make you nervous to take a team to sweep a four-game series, but it happens way more than you might think. That hesitancy by most bettors, I believe, is creating value on the line because you can easily make the Brewers -170 here, and I wouldn’t bat an eye.

System 1: “Going for 4 Game Sweep”. This system has a 13% ROI, is 154-63 overall, and is hitting at a 60% rate in six of the last ten times this system has been live. While the system’s title is simple, it has a few wrinkles. The opponent’s winning percentage has to be below 50% playing an opponent in the same league. That opponent did not make the playoffs last year, and the team we are betting on is home. When all those factors are at play, the system is very profitable.

I’m not a blind tailer of systems by any means, but when I already like a side and a system confirms it, I’m going to jump in. It’s mildly expensive to play the Brewers today, but it should be more expensive.

Miles Mikolas takes the mound for St. Louis. His earned run prop is heavily juiced towards the over, and for good reason. His pitching outs line is also at 15.5 outs, which is worse than Lance Lynn’s lines. Mikolas has exceeded 2.5 earned runs in four of his last five games (4.2 earned runs/game average). He already gave up five earned runs in less than five innings against them this year and seven earned runs in 12 innings last year.

At this point in Mikolas’ career, command is the one thing he can rely on. He never walks anyone and is constantly in the zone. While that’s good for not allowing free base runners, the Brewers should earn them. This offense remains a top-five unit lately and over the entire season. They rank third by wRC+ behind the Dodgers and Yankees against righties. This is an elite offense that’s hitting well right now.

Mikolas has an ERA over six, and I don’t expect it to come down much. He’s below average in every facet of pitching except walk rate. In terms of Stuff+, he’s in the bottom five of baseball. When he allows contact, it’s hard and in the air. He can be effective when he faces teams on a cold streak because they’ll get themselves out. Milwaukee won’t do that; if you throw them strikes, they will hit it with authority.

Bryse Wilson goes for Milwaukee. We’ve bet on him before, and it worked out for us. His 2.40 ERA is fantastic, and while I don’t expect him to be that good this year, he’s still a fine pitcher.

He doesn’t have good numbers against the Cardinals at all, but he’s been a reliever for most of his career. Last year, he gave up seven runs to this Cardinals team in two bad innings. He faced them this year, and got four straight outs in the bullpen. He also faces them when they are reeling.

The Cardinals’ offense is seventh-worst this season against right-handed pitching. Those full-season stats include their best hitter, Willson Contreras, who remains out of this game. They have only scored six runs this entire series, and the thick of their lineup has yet to do a thing. Paul Goldschmidt is taking terrible swings, and Arenado has one hit in this series.

Whenever I have the much better offense, I want every inning soaked up. Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero, and Ryan Helsley are the arms I love in the Cardinals bullpen. Both threw about 20 pitches yesterday, and the Brewers hit up Kittredge. If they come in again, I have faith the Brewers can get to them.

I wouldn’t expect William Contreras to play today after three straight games at catcher. That’s factored in here. I would feel better if he did play, but I’ll be surprised if he’s in the lineup.

It’s still the Cardinals, so they’ll get line respect, especially when playing a team that the market hasn’t fully bought into yet. The Brewers are the far superior team with the better pitcher. They take home the sweep today.

The Pick: Brewers ML (-140) Risk 1.4 Units

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