What a day. For all those who tailed the Marlins win total future, we made five units in profit yesterday. In case you missed that from before the season, we cashed the Rockies ML to secure it yesterday. On top of it all, we hit the easiest over of our lives in Minnesota. We took the over 7.5, 9-1 after the top of the second inning.

The Marlins’ win total will not be factored into the record you see every day. I have a separate record for futures, so only two units will be subtracted from our number in the red. We still have more work to do; let’s get after it with my favorite play for Tuesday.

If anyone is interested in my NFL Futures (+35.25 Units in 2023), click here.

2024 Record: 107-110 (-6.73 U)

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb (3.13 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (2.87 ERA)

The Giants are favored in this matchup because Logan Webb is not only fantastic, but he’s on a heater. The Brewers are phenomenal at home this season, while the Giants are a well-below-average team on the road. The Brewer’s bullpen is a whole notch above the Giants, and the Brewers’ offense is better. Milwaukee is the better team, and they should win today even though the Giants have the advantage among these two starters.

Logan Webb has been on his game lately, throwing 28.1 innings in August while only allowing four runs, which equates to a 1.27 ERA. He’s been as good as anyone lately, but who has he faced? He has three straight home starts where he’s dominated for years against the White Sox, Braves, and Tigers. Then, he pitched pretty well against the Nationals on the road, dominated the A’s at home, and got beat up by the Rockies and Dodgers.

The Brewers are arguably the best offense he’ll face in that entire stretch, and it’s on the road. Logan Webb has routinely struggled on the road over his career with San Francisco. In 2023, Webb had a 2.26 ERA at home but a 4.31 ERA on the road. That trend has continued this season, with a 2.26 ERA at home again but a 4.11 ERA on the road.

Now he faces a top-ten offense this season against right-handed pitching by wRC+ and OPS. Since August began, this Brewers offense ranks 8th in wRC+ and 9th in OPS. Webb hasn’t faced the Brewers this season, but three players have seen Webb before.

Rhys Hoskins is 1-4 with a home run against him. Willy Adames is 3-6 with a home run. Brice Turang is 1-3 with a triple. Of the players that have seen Webb, they’ve all hit for extra bases.

Logan Webb has a 4.08 xERA and 3.58 SIERA compared to Brewers pitcher Tobias Myers, who has a 4.11 xERA and 4.11 SIERA. In terms of the underlying metrics that project future performance, there isn’t a sizeable gap between these two. Clearly, Webb is better, but as we sit here today, especially in this matchup, I don’t see a big enough gap to make Webb a road favorite.

Tobias Myers will face off against a Giants offense that is below average in spots like these. They have a 92 wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road this season, ranking 18th in the league. Since August began, the Giants have a 95 wRC+ against righties in any park. The Brewers in August have the higher Hard-Hit rate, ISO, SLG, OBP, batting average, you name it.

The way the Giants win is if Logan Webb twirls and absolute gem and hands it off to Ryan Walker. If Webb only goes six innings, and it’s close, Milwaukee has the advantage. Now that Trevor Megill is back, we have six fantastic arms; Williams, Megill, Koenig, Hudson, Peguero, and Payamps. The highest ERA among those is 3.33. None of them have thrown since Saturday, so they are fully rested and ready to go. If Myers goes five innings while allowing two runs, I think the scoring stops for the Giants.

I like the Giants bullpen, but I don’t trust anyone outside of Ryan Walker against this Brewers offense at home. The Brewers can score late against anybody.

Going back to the home road records to end it, the Giants are a terrible road team. They are 38-28 at home this year but 28-38 on the road. The Brewers are 38-24 at home, the fourth-best home record in the league. The Brewers are also 5-0 in their last five games at home, and the Giants lost a series on the road to the Mariners.

The Brewers can win this game in so many ways. If Myers keeps it close to Webb, we can win late. If Myers has a great outing, we should win with ease. Even if the Giants have a lead late, I’m not counting out Milwaukee. The Brewers should be the favorites here, but Webb is getting a lot of respect. If Webb wills this team to a win by dominating the Brewers on the road, I’ll tip my cap. Take the Brewers to -115, as I have them as -125 favorites.

The Pick: Brewers ML (-105) Risk 1.05 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.