Yesterday should have been our fourth winner in a row, but the baseballs gods had different plans.

I lost on the under 8.5 in Nationals vs Tigers, as the score finished 5-4, missing on the hook. The Tigers scored four runs in that game, all unearned. If Mitchell Parker fields his position, the inning is over, and we cruise to an easy win. If the Nationals hadn’t made another error in that inning, allowing Riley Greene to score, we still win on the under.

That’s baseball for you. Won’t affect this pick I have for you today.

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2024 Record: 60-72 (-13.87 U)

Houston Astros vs. San Francisco Giants @ 3:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez vs. Logan Webb

First, this game is going to be fun. Second, I think the Giants win with the pitching advantage throughout the entire contest. We have a good price backing one of the best home starters in the game.

Logan Webb is a monster at Oracle Park. Over his career, he’s rocking a 2.64 ERA/2.73 FIP in home starts compared to a 4.06 ERA/3.49 FIP on the road. Logan Webb has failed to exceed 2.5 earned runs in eight of his last nine games at home (1.2 earned runs/game average). This season, he’s been under 2.5 earned runs in five of his six home starts, with the lone four run outing coming against the Yankees in seven innings.

He faced the Astros last year in Houston, allowing two runs through 7.2 innings, and the Giants won 4-2. That start was coincidentally against Framber Valdez.

Both of these two pitchers are cut from the same cloth. Both have incredibly high ground-ball rates to offset the hard contact rates. Webb has the advantage in K-BB ratio but Framber has the edge in xERA. All things equal, these two pitchers are in the same tier. However, Webb levels up at home, and I think he has the easier matchup today.

Without Kyle Tucker, this Astros lineup is a lot less scary. Over the last two weeks, the Astros have a 98 wRC+ against righties, placing them at 15th in the league. They also have the tenth-highest ground-ball rate. Houston is the sixth-best offense this year against righties, but they surely miss Tucker’s 1.072 OPS against righties. It’s an average offense right now against righties.

The Giants offense against lefties has been well above average. Over the last two weeks, the Giants have a 131 wRC+ against lefties, sixth best in the league. Over the last 30 days, the Giants are the tied for the number one offense with the Dodgers against lefties, putting up a crazy high 152 wRC+.

Over the entire season, the Giants have a 116 wRC+ vs. lefties compared to the Astros at 112. The Astros also have the ninth-highest ground-ball rate, while the Giants keep it in the air, ranking 27th. Logan Webb is in the better spot (at home) with the easier matchup.

Both starters are +105 to go over 2.5 earned runs, but Webb is juiced towards the over on his pitching outs. Even if they both allow two runs, then exit, the Giants are set up nicely to win in the end.

Give me the Giants’ bullpen over Houston’s in this spot. The Giants’ three best relievers; Doval (3.76 ERA), Walker (2.62 ERA), Rogers (2.53 ERA) have all thrown less than 20 pitches in the last three days, and none of them threw yesterday. We also have Randy Rodriguez (3.05 ERA) available, a young reliever with electric stuff.

The Astros’ big three are in a tough spot. Abreu has thrown 40 pitches in the last three days, Pressly is at 32, and Hader is at 25. Tayler Scott has been a much-needed boost for the Astros bullpen, but he’s thrown 46 pitches over the last two games so he won’t be available. If we do see the elite relievers, they won’t be rested, and we know what can happen to the Astros bullpen when they aren’t rested (it isn’t good).

We get the best of the Giants bullpen and Logan Webb at home with the better offense right now. The Astros have not been profitable as an underdog lately, going 4-8 in their last 12. The Astros are 14-19 on the road compared to 17-18 at home, and the Giants are 18-15 at home but 15-20 on the road. The Giants should win this game, and I would take them to -125.

The Pick: Giants ML (-115) Risk to win 0.5 Units