Another 1-1 day grinds my gears. We took the Royals as a home underdog against the Guardians, and they won easily behind an excellent performance from Zack Grienke.
We also took the Padres money line, which was a disaster. MacKenzie Gore looked terrible, and the Giants put up 12 runs for the first time in what seemed like forever. I wanted the Giants’ offense to prove they could hit again, and they did exactly that. On one of those days, we turned on the TV, watched some baseball, and came out down just 0.2 units.
Today, the slate only features a handful of games that I believe are priced appropriately. It’s a tough slate, so I’ll take only one MLB Best Bet today. I’m going back to what I know best, fading teams off Sunday Night Baseball.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 130-105 (55%) +18.49 units
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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 7:10 PM EST
Brayan Bello (RHP, Red Sox) [0-1, 9.00 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 4 IP, 2 K, 3 BB]
Matt Wisler (RHP, Rays) [2-3, 2.58 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 38.1 IP, 31 K, 14 BB]
We head to Tampa for the first game of a four-game set. The Red Sox’s top pitching prospect Bryan Bello will make his second career start, with his first start coming against the Rays. It did not go particularly well, as the Rays put up four runs in four innings against Bello and took home the 7-1 win. We see the Red Sox as slight favorites in this one with the expectation that Bello will bounce back.
A lot of factors are at play here. We’ve been very successful this season, fading teams coming off Sunday Night Baseball. The Red Sox had an emotional four-game set with their bitter rivals and now have to travel down to Tampa without an off-day. This will be a tough test for Bello as he’s carved up the minor leagues against right-handed bats. The problem with Bello has been lefties, as all six home runs he gave up in the minors were to lefty bats.
What we know about the Rays is they will play the matchups. Losing Wander Franco doesn’t help the Rays’ chances, but he has not been as good offensively as last year. While the Rays lineup doesn’t feature much firepower, it will stack the box with left-handed bats. Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz may be the only right-handed bats in the lineup, and they combined to go 4-8 against Bello in his debut, with three RBIs and four runs scored.
The Red Sox will have to deal with a bullpen game from Tampa. Even though Shane Baz was crushed yesterday, the Rays were able to save the strong arms in the bullpen. Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, and Colin Poche should relieve Matt Wisler after an inning or two. Josh Fleming should also shoulder the load after Wisler.
The Rays are coming off horrendous losses against the Reds, while the Red Sox showed plenty of fight against the Yankees. I think this is a letdown spot for the Red Sox after Sunday Night Baseball, and the Rays should score enough of a rookie pitcher making his first start on the road in enemy territory.
The Red Sox have plenty of fight in them, and the Rays could run dry of bullpen arms in the later innings. I think the Sox bats will come out slow against a bullpen game, and the Rays can score a couple to at least give us a push if it’s tied after five innings.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings ML (-105)
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