Is Zac Gallen Worth a Gamble?

How do you even describe Zac Gallen‘s career? Traded in 2017 with Sandy Alcantara and others to the Marlins for Marcell Ozuna, then traded to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm Jr. in 2019. That’s two big trades to be involved in only seven starts into your career.

Gallen showed promise down the stretch with Arizona in 2019 before really putting his name on the map in 2020. He followed with four strong seasons as the Diamondbacks’ ace before 2025 was a speed bump, leading to a one-year deal for 2026 instead of the big payday he was tracking towards.

No big deal. Tweak a few things, have a big 2026, and re-enter the market he designed a long-term deal. That was the game plan, but everything went south in 2026. After posting a 6.07 ERA, 5.34 FIP, and 5.47 K/9 (no, that’s not a typo), he is hitting free agency once again, this time with a red flag waving as if a hurricane is about to breach the beach.

We’ve seen the highs, and we’ve seen the lows. At this point, you could call it a downward trend. But, if there’s one thing we’ve seen time and time again in baseball, it’s that you get second, third, and fourth opportunities. Someone is going to roll the dice on Gallen, but should they?

Zac Gallen’s Downward Trend

This isn’t the first time that we’ve seen a pitcher nosedive. Usually, this type of downward trend is accompanied by an injury that changes the pitcher’s ability to pitch in a way that once made them successful.

Gallen did have an elbow injury that cut his season short, so maybe that was a factor. It would certainly be the easiest answer to his struggles. But, I don’t think that would explain 2025 and what we saw to begin 2026.

What exactly is causing his decline? That’s for a pitching coach and someone who is much smarter than me to figure out, but we’ll give it a try. He’s always been the type of pitcher to allow hard contact, but his ability to generate groundballs usually saves him from disastrous outings. However, Gallen has seen a significant increase in how many home runs he is giving up.

Gallen’s two highest HR/9 (home runs per nine) came in the past two seasons; he posted a 1.45 HR/9 in 2025 and a 1.62 HR/9 in 2026. Over the past two seasons, his HR/FB (home run to fly ball ratio) sat just over 14%, a significant jump from the roughly 9.5% he carried the three seasons prior.

I think the issue has been Gallen’s stuff taking a step back, along with his command, pushing him into more hitters’ counts and not having what it takes to put a batter away. In 2026, when Gallen got to two strikes, he still allowed an OPS of .729. In counts with no strikes, the OPS allowed was .928. When batters were ahead in the count, 1.095.

The best version of Gallen has his curveball leading the way as a strikeout pitch. In his prime, Gallen was regularly producing a 40% whiff rate on his curveball and getting plenty of batters to not only chase but make weak contact and dribble a ball to an infielder. However, we’ve seen the movement on his curveball decrease over the past couple of years.

His curveball is not moving nearly as much, and the pitch that helps set it up – his four-seam fastball – has also lost movement. Gallen was regularly producing a 13-19% whiff rate on his fastball, but that dropped to only 6.4% in 2026. In fact, his whiff rates on his curveball and fastball have trended downward since 2023, but more drastically in the past year.

If Gallen does not have the best command of his fastball, and it’s lost a bit of its movement profile, it will impact the rest of his pitches. You can tell that he does not trust his fastball in the same way, as he threw it a career-low 35% last season, down from roughly 45% in years past. He leaned into his slider more, which I think is a result of not having as much success with his curveball, and that pitch was hit at a .290 average with a .505 slug.

I think it’s fair to chalk 2026 up as a complete disaster for Zac Gallen. Everything went wrong, and the adjustments he tried to make did him no favors. Perhaps a new coaching staff and fresh set of eyes can help him make a few adjustments, regain his movement, and lead to more swings and fewer misses. At least that’s the hope.

Where Gallen Makes Sense

We know that Gallen will have a job in 2027, but the question is: where? After the stinker he put up in 2026, the only signing I see is a one-year prove-it deal. Although starting pitching is extremely expensive, and Gallen can at least be an innings eater like we have seen in years past, I can’t imagine the money he receives in free agency being too much for any team.

I do think Gallen will have enough interest to be able to avoid bad pitcher parks. The A’s could use him, but I doubt Gallen would want his prove-it deal to be in a minor league park in Sacramento. Cincinnati makes sense, but Great American Ball Park often scares pitchers away, regardless of how true of a hitter’s park Cincinnati is. Colorado is out of the question.

You could look at the historically successful teams at correcting pitching – Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee – but I don’t see any of them getting in the mix. Maybe Tampa, but the money might even be too rich for their liking. If a contender wants to roll the dice, I think you should look at San Diego. They’ve tried the rehabilitation project before, and Gallen fits that mold.

Angels, Astros, Giants, Cardinals, and Royals are all teams that don’t necessarily fit the contender title, but would have an opportunity in their rotation for a veteran to maybe regain value and be shipped out at the deadline. The Astros will have to commit to a rebuild first, and figure out their money situation, but they desperately need an arm.

We’ve seen Baltimore favor mid-tier veterans in recent years, so I wouldn’t rule them out. Regardless of the direction they’re taking, Gallen could make sense.

Wherever Gallen lands, it will be a risk. A team with a strong reputation for getting the most out of its pitchers would obviously be ideal, but those franchises passing on Gallen could be a tell. If they don’t think they can fix him, maybe nobody can.

Final Thoughts

Something tells me that this is not the end of the road for Zac Gallen. I won’t go as far as saying he will rebound to the pitcher he once was, but I do think there is a path where he gets back to being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. I don’t have a bunch of fancy stats or concrete evidence to prove it, but my mind won’t allow me to classify him as “finished” for some reason.

Every season there are a few pitchers who need a one-year prove-it deal. Many times those pitchers don’t come with the upside that Gallen has. Although it’s a big risk, I think it’s one worth taking for a number of rebuilding or fringe-contending teams.