Why We Shouldn’t Be Worried About the Mariners
The Mariners took a big step back in 2026, but that doesn't mean they're on a downward trajectory.
No matter how you slice it, the 2026 season was nothing but a disappointment for the Seattle Mariners. A year after winning the AL West, winning 90 games, and going to Game 7 of the ALCS, the Mariners fell flat on their face. A whopping 76 wins, good for third place in what would turn out to be a weak AL West.
I’m not going to try to convince you to be anything but frustrated. I get it. Expectations for this team were sky-high, and rightfully so. Mariners fans have been used to disappointment over the years, but after what they had been building the past few seasons, 2026 felt like a ripe opportunity to change the tide.
Instead, here we are discussing the offseason. Now that we’ve all had a few weeks to calm down and evaluate where the Mariners are headed, it’s time to focus on next season. While I’m sure many of you all are still bitter, I think that Seattle still has enough talent to reach new heights we haven’t seen from them in years. Maybe ever.
We often like to focus on extremes. Highlighting the best possible scenario for a player, or when they are playing at a career worst. The truth is, the most likely outcome is usually somewhere in between. For the Mariners, I believe this will be a regression to the mean.
Injuries Slowing Momentum
It never really felt like the Mariners were able to field their projected starting lineup. Once one player returned from injury, the IL was backfilled with another. As soon as that returning player got his feet under him, boom, another went down. Shuffling the roster, not having a complete lineup, and rarely seeing the Mariners function as intended made it tough for them to really gain momentum.
I don’t need to go through all of the stats in order to prove why Cal Raleigh wasn’t the same player that he was in 2025. By now you’ve heard everything there is to be said about his lackluster season. Chopping his home run total by more than half from the year prior obviously sunk the Mariners from the jump.
Even when Raleigh was in the lineup, he didn’t look right. There’s been plenty of speculation, but this always looked like a player who was battling some variation of an injury before he even hit the IL in May. Having your biggest power bat not be at 100% is a tough hole to fill.
The Mariners were also without their biggest offseason acquisition, Brendan Donovan. I thought Donovan was the perfect fit for this lineup and gave the Mariners a high-floor bat with elite on-base ability atop the order. He answered a number of their questions but simply couldn’t stay healthy.
Donovan got off to a hot start to begin the year and really showed what the Mariners’ lineup could look like with him in it. Once he came back from injury late in the season, he picked up right where he left off. Assuming Donovan will have a healthy 2027 season. He’s a major factor, plugged right back into this lineup.
Let’s just say Donovan and Raleigh are healthy. How drastic of a change is that for the Mariners’ lineup? I’d argue that’s two of their top three most important players who either missed almost all of 2026 or were never quite right.
Not to mention, secondary players such as J.P. Crawford and Victor Robles also missed time. While neither is really an offensive driver, Crawford had been a high-floor player that helped stabilize the Mariners’ lineup for the past few seasons. Although he might not be on the team in 2027, it explains part of the 2026 struggles.
Promising Pitching
At times, it’s easy for Mariners fans to forget they are spoiled with starting pitching. The Luis Castillo debacle is now behind them, and the ridiculous shuffling of the rotation could come to a more natural settling. We’re still talking about six high-end arms at their disposal.
Logan Gilbert leads the rotation as a true workhorse who has posted an ERA under 3.75 for five straight seasons. The type of pitcher you can just about copy and paste year after year. I don’t see any reason to expect Gilbert not to be pitching at the level he’s sustained for years, giving the Mariners an ace heading into 2027.
The questions within the rotation come down to who will bounce back. George Kirby’s 4.33 ERA and Bryan Woo’s 4.01 ERA were not bad, but also don’t tell the story of how good these pictures actually are. Each came with a significantly better FIP due to a miserable Mariners defense behind them. I still view both of these arms as high in talent and as the type of pitchers that you can trust in the playoffs.
After those three names, you get a little bit more of the unknowns. Bryce Miller can go from looking like one of the best pitchers to a fringe fifth starter in the blink of an eye. Emerson Hancock made massive strides this year but will need to back it up to truly prove this isn’t just a sample size situation. Kade Anderson, a top-tier prospect, is still a rookie with plenty to learn.
Sure, there are questions with this group. But how many other staffs would you take over them? Would anybody be surprised if they ended up being a top-three staff in all of baseball? They have already proven that they are capable of being that kind of staff many times before.
Growth from Young Players
Trying to predict how young players will perform is tricky. We all know that development is not linear, and some players go through ups and downs before really leveling out to what they will become.
History tells us that not every prospect is going to hit, but having several high-end prospects on your team obviously increases the likelihood of you finding a few answers.
I like to start with Cole Young. The 23-year-old first-round pick from 2022 showed enough during his rookie season, although he only slashed .246/.312/.381. I trust his bat and what I saw throughout the minor leagues. I think that he’s only scratching the surface of the player he can become.
Young is going to make a lot of contact and should grow into a more well-rounded hitter as he develops. We saw the flashes at times, but a yo-yo season makes his numbers look less than ideal.
Fans are excited about Michael Arroyo and rightfully so. Another player who’s going to make a good amount of contact but also comes with more power potential. I’m sure he’ll experience some growing pains, but his hot start to his major league career was promising.
Every time I watch Arroyo, I just keep coming back to the fact that there’s a Major League Baseball player here. He might not have the highest ceiling in the world, but I think he’ll be a productive big leaguer.
The last two are more wild cards: Colt Emerson and Lazaro Montes. Both have the flashy tools that drove them to the top of prospect lists, but red flags that could prevent them from ever establishing a major league career. Montes oozes with power and hit one of the most impressive home runs I saw all season. It’s all going to come down to how much contact he can make, which is a similar story for Emerson.
A lot more faith in Emerson finding a way to become a regular. Although his first stint was not promising, there’s simply too much talent to write off a kid at only 21 years old. Seattle doesn’t need all four of these players to click right away, but getting two of them to claim roles would be a big step.
Final Thoughts
Look at this roster up and down and tell me if you see a 76-win team. There’s no denying that there’s room for improvement and big decisions to be made, such as bringing back Randy Arozarena, but the foundation is solid.
It feels like each offseason we wonder if this is the year the Mariners will acquire the big-name free agent or swing a massive trade. I think the pressure has reached a point where it has to happen.
You can see a world where Julio Rodríguez is better. How about Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor? Better luck on the injury front. The path to returning to a 91 team is a lot more clear than I think some people are willing to admit.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by