What Should the Reds Do With Nick Lodolo?

When the Cincinnati Reds selected Nick Lodolo with the seventh overall pick in 2019, they expected him to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. A long and lanky lefty with a sidearm arm slot that produces swing-and-miss stuff and plus command is not the easiest thing to find. For a moment, it looked like Nick Lodolo would become just that.

However, injuries and inconsistencies have led to a rather puzzling career in Cincinnati. Shortened seasons, strange leg injuries, and a blister issue that they just cannot seem to fix have left a sour taste among the fan base. We all thought the breakout came in 2025, when he made 28 starts, pitching to a 3.33 ERA and 3.81 FIP. Then 2026 happened.

More blisters and more disappointment. Even when he was able to take the mound, it wasn’t pretty. A 4.97 ERA and 5.70 FIP somehow don’t even tell the story of how difficult some of his outings looked.

Lodolo will be 29 years old during the 2027 season, and at this point, I think it’s safe to say that we know what he is. Is there really anything else to untap? After 518 innings and 96 starts, I think we have our answers. The question becomes: Should the Reds keep Lodolo, or is it time to move on?

Relying on Lodolo Is a Gamble

The 2025 Cincinnati Reds mostly made the postseason because of their rotation. Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, and Chase Burns all stepped up and posted either career-best or damn-near career-best seasons. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Reds’ success correlated with Lodolo finally breaking out.

What we saw in 2025 is what makes this conversation so difficult. We all know that the talent is there, but consistency is not his friend. Sure, injuries are the leading cause of Lodolo’s struggles, but you cannot continue to play the same game of “if he’s healthy.” When it comes down to it, you need to be on the field to be impactful.

Injuries are a double-edged sword. They not only keep you away from the field but also typically affect your performance when you return. Trying to get a feel for your pitches again, settle in with your command, and just feel normal usually takes a few starts. Lodolo’s ongoing blister issue certainly affected his feel and changed the way he was able to pitch.

Okay, so fix the blister issue, right? What seems so simple has somehow become very complicated for the Reds. That’s a sentence I think I could have said multiple times over the past several years. The only responsible path forward for the Reds’ front office is to consider Lodolo a 100- to 120-inning arm. That’s the first problem. The second: Were those innings good enough?

Let’s start with Lodolo’s stuff, which I think is definitely good enough for him to be a successful pitcher. He has a four-seam fastball that he locates well at the top of the zone, a curveball that can be lethal, and a sinker and changeup to round out his arsenal. We’ve seen this pitch mix work for him in the past, but something is changing.

	2024 (Avg. Exit velo/Whiff %)	2025 (Avg. Exit velo/Whiff %)	2026 (Avg. Exit velo/Whiff %)
Four Seam	90.2 mph / 27.9%	88.9 mph / 24.9%	91.9 mph / 18.1%
Sinker	89.7 mph / 17.3%	88.9 mph / 13.4%	93.2 mph / 8.1%
Curveball	86.2 mph / 42.9%	85.4 mph / 40.3%	84 mph / 40.6%
Change up	85.3 mph / 22.3%	85.8 mph / 27.5%	88.3 mph / 25.9%

The trend I’m trying to show is the ongoing decrease in swing-and-miss on Lodolo’s fastball, dropping nearly 10% over the past two seasons. The same can be said of his sinker, although that’s less of a swing-and-miss pitch to begin with. His changeup might still produce similar swing-and-miss numbers, but it was hit hard this past season. Heck, all of his pitches were hit pretty hard this past season.

Ultimately, this led to a career-worst 6.87 K/9, continuing the downward trend that has now lasted four straight seasons. This isn’t the only negative trend, either. In each of the past three seasons, I’ve seen an increase in his home run-to-fly-ball rate and a decrease in his ground-ball rate.

You might think this feels nitpicky or a bit of an exaggeration. We’re talking about the same pitcher who looked excellent in 2025. However, when else have you been impressed with Lodolo? Back in 2022, across 19 starts? Or were they stretches and moments throughout seasons that were bookended by injuries?

Overall, Nick Lodolo is a talented pitcher who comes with a number of caveats and questions. It feels like any time you discuss Lodolo, half the conversation revolves around what keeps him off the field or hypothetical success stories. As much as I like Nick Lodolo, he’s a gamble.

Can the Reds Afford to Move on From Lodolo?

This is not a matter of simply cutting Lodolo or not, but rather whether the Reds can find a path to move him. The 2027 season will be his final year of arbitration, and he is projected to make $6.75 million, according to Spotrac. Considering how expensive starting pitching is, even for backend arms, the money is not an issue on the surface.

Seven million dollars gets you a middle-of-the-bullpen arm, making the cost worth the risk for a player who has shown the talent that Lodolo has. To me, this isn’t about money. If Lodolo were to hit the open market, he would likely sign for a deal higher than his projected arbitration salary, which is why he could become a trade candidate.

I know, I know. You’re probably asking, “Who are you going to get for him? What would anyone give up for him?” While I don’t think it would be the prettiest prospect package you’ve ever seen, I do think he still has some trade value. There’s nothing a GM loves more than trying to fix a former top prospect, especially when he was excellent just two seasons ago.

In a vacuum, trading Lodolo, moving on from all the issues that have come with him, and allocating his arbitration money toward improving the roster is an idea I can get behind. However, the Reds’ rotation does not have the type of depth that makes that move an easy one on the surface.

Who are you going to replace him with? Brady Singer is going to hit free agency, and the Reds may need to re-sign him. Hunter Greene is out for the 2027 season, while Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson have not shown enough to be trusted. Dip down into the minor leagues, and you’ll find more of the same issues.

Chase Petty, Jose Acuna, Jose Franco, Luke Hayden, and others cannot be viewed as reasonable replacements, but rather as depth arms at best. Without an answer coming from the minors, the Reds would have to look outside the organization.

Yes, there will be upgrades on the free-agent market, but all of them will come at twice the price or higher than Lodolo. Not to mention, the Reds have to do more than just replace Lodolo. They have to replace Hunter Greene’s innings, along with potentially Brady Singer’s. Adding to the rotation is already near the top of the priority list, and moving on from Lodolo would only emphasize that need.

All of this is to say that, even with Lodolo’s concerns and questions, bringing him back is the best course of action for the Reds. Does that get me excited? Not exactly. Another year of potentially discussing Lodolo’s injuries is not something I look forward to. The Reds’ lack of development or spending puts them in this difficult pickle.

Final Thoughts

Here the Reds are, once again, crossing their fingers and hoping for the best-case scenario to play out. How likely is it that Lodolo can repeat something close to his 2025 season? Maybe 20% likely? If this were MLB The Show, I would move on and replace him with a more reliable arm. But this is real life.

The position the Reds are in is entirely their own fault. They could have moved a player and tried to bring back more options for the rotation or the minor leagues. They could increase the budget and spend more on veterans. Instead, they’re doing a copy and paste of what they’ve done most seasons over the past 30 years. I wouldn’t expect the results to change.