Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
The start of the MLB season has been great for us. Eight days of baseball and we’ve had seven winning days. To recap yesterday we went 6-1 overall and the only bet we missed was a PrizePick. If only Aaron Judge decided to hit the ball yesterday, we could’ve been perfect. Moving into today we sit at a 30-10 overall record and we are up +23.60 units! The hot start will continue into today and I love the slate of games for today. Let’s rock.
2023 Straight Plays Record: 30-10 (+23.60 U)
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly.
All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Luis Garcia vs. Joe Ryan
For some reason my Houston Astros don’t want to win when we’ve bet on them this season. This is the team’s last straw before I put them on my no-bet list. The line for this game opened with Houston as an underdog. They were sitting at +105 and have gotten a line movement in their favor. The Astros now find themselves at -105 and have received 60% of the bets and 78% of the money. With the big money on Houston, I see this as a great bounce back spot for them after they lost in extra innings yesterday.
When I look at the numbers, this is a game where Luis Garcia helps get this team back in the win column. Garcia faced the Twins twice last season winning both matchups and pitched great in both starts. He went at least five innings in both starts and combined for 14 strikeouts in those starts.
For Joe Ryan he has only seen Houston once in his career and he struggled in that loss back in May of last year. Houston and Garcia will get it done today.
The Play: Astros ML (+100) 1 U to win 1 U
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Nick Lodolo vs. Bailey Falter
It’s Nick Lodolo day! Get used to betting Lodolo and the Reds because they might be the best “bad” team in baseball. All that means is there is always going to be a ton of value on this team and the Reds are going to come through for us today.
The line for this game opened at +130 and the line has continued to move in the Reds direction. I’ve seen this line on some books be around +115 and when looking at the first five innings Cincinnati is almost at even money. I favor the first five innings over the full game because I am betting on Lodolo and fading Falter. Lodolo faced the Phillies twice last season combining for 12.1 innings pitched, 4 earned runs, and 13 strikeouts. That was against a Phillies lineup at full strength with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins.
Like I mentioned earlier the Reds have a ton of value on them but are backed by such talented young pitching. Lodolo has the stuff to become an elite arm and potentially one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball. I’m not going to overthink it, I’m taking the better pitcher with the line move. Lodolo masterclass incoming.
The Play: Red 1H ML (+102) 1 U to win 1.02 U
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:35 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Mike Clevinger vs. Vince Velasquez
The White Sox have underperformed so far this season. They got destroyed by the Giants in their last series and lost yesterday in a slugfest on the road. Mike Clevinger is getting the ball today after he returned to form in his last start against the Houston Astros. He struck out eight over five innings in and is facing a Pirates team that is a lot worse than their 5-2 record shows. Journeymen Vince Velasquez will be taking the rubber for Pittsburgh and we faded him in his last start against the Reds.
Chicago opened as a -130 favorite and when I look at the first five innings, this line has gotten some steam towards the White Sox, with books having the line at -135 to -140. The White Sox’s bullpen has been shaky all season and there is more value paying some more juice and back Clevinger. Chicago’s bat have started to heat up, they are batting .287 as a team with a .466 SLG %. This lineup should have no problem with Velasquez and this is another great bounce back spot for the White Sox.
The Play: White Sox 1H ML (-132) 1.32 U to win 1 U
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:07 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Jose Berrios vs. Tyler Anderson
To put in frankly, Jose Berrios is washed. He didn’t pitch well in the World Baseball Classic and he looked awful in his first start of the season. Berrios gave up eight runs against the Royals in his last start and now he gets to face Ohtani and Trout on the road. Don’t forget to mention Berrios is 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA in seven starts against the Angels in his career. In his lone start against them last season, he didn’t even make it out of the third inning before giving up six runs.
Tyler Anderson had a career season last year with the Dodgers and I thought he was a great pickup by the Angels this off-season. Anderson won his first start of the season tossing a six shutout innings. This matchup heavily favors the Angels who sit as a -125 favorite. However, the value is on the first five innings because we are strictly fading Berrios. That’s why I have two plays for the first five innings. We will continue to fade Berrios until he proves us wrong.
The Plays: Los Angeles Angels 1H ML (-125) 2.25 U to win 2 U & Angels 1H TT o 2.5 (+102) 1 U to win 1.02 U