Are the Royals the Perfect Trade Partner for the Braves?
The Braves need rotation and outfield help. One trade with the Royals could be the answer they're looking for.
In the offseason, the Atlanta Braves appeared to have an embarrassment of riches in their starting rotation. Not only was the group full, but Atlanta looked like it would have to make some difficult decisions just to narrow the rotation down to five starters.
Chris Sale was the unquestioned ace of the staff. Spencer Schwellenbach had developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball since arriving in Atlanta. Spencer Strider entered the season fully healthy after spending an entire offseason recovering from surgery. AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep were both coming off promising 2025 campaigns and seemed to have earned the opportunity to compete for rotation spots at some point in the season. That left Grant Holmes, Reynaldo López, and Bryce Elder on the outside looking in.
Then everything changed.
Smith-Shawver unfortunately underwent Tommy John surgery last June, already pushing his return until around the All-Star break. Schwellenbach and Waldrep both missed the start of the season after undergoing February procedures to remove loose bodies. Strider opened the season with Atlanta but was shut down in June because of inflammation in his right elbow.
What once looked like one of the best rotations in baseball quickly became one of the weakest on paper outside of Sale.
The phrase “on paper” carries a lot of weight here because the actual results tell a different story. Through May, Atlanta’s rotation posted a 3.26 ERA, the fifth best mark in baseball. The group cooled off leading into the All-Star break but still owns the ninth best ERA at 3.95 as it sits today. While the results have been encouraging, many of the underlying metrics suggest the rotation has outperformed expectations.
Left field has followed a similar path.
For the second consecutive season, Atlanta lost its projected starting left fielder when Jurickson Profar received a PED suspension, this time for the entire season. Mike Yastrzemski was brought in to handle the strong side of a platoon against right-handed pitching, but he has not matched the offensive production he showed in previous years.
Against right-handed pitching, the Braves own a .750 OPS, the eighth best mark in baseball. Against left-handed pitching, however, that number falls to .700, which ranks 19th.
There may be an opportunity to address both weaknesses with one trade, and the Kansas City Royals could be the perfect partner. Our editor-in-chief, Ryan Finkelstein, proposed a deal that would send Michael Wacha and Lane Thomas to Atlanta in exchange for Hurston Waldrep, Alex Lodise, and Cody Miller.
Let’s break down why the Braves should, and should not, make that move.
The Case for the Trade
There is an easy case to be made for bringing both Wacha and Thomas to Atlanta. Let’s start with Lane Thomas.
Thomas has been connected to the Braves in trade rumors for several years, and this deadline may finally be the right time to make it happen.
Atlanta’s left fielders currently rank second worst in baseball with a .628 OPS, with Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubón handling most of the playing time. As mentioned earlier, the Braves have struggled against left-handed pitching, posting just a .700 OPS, making a right-handed bat an obvious need.
Thomas is not repeating the 28 home run, .783 OPS campaign he had in 2023, but he has still been productive. This season he owns a .724 OPS and a 102 wRC+. More importantly, he has punished left-handed pitching with a .799 OPS and a 124 wRC+.
Bringing Thomas into a platoon with Yastrzemski would be an immediate upgrade.
Thomas’ .799 OPS and 124 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, paired with Yastrzemski’s .686 OPS and 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, creates an above-average offensive profile in left field. That is exactly the type of production a dangerous Braves lineup could use heading into October.
Now let’s talk about Michael Wacha.
Few pitchers have been as consistently reliable over the last five seasons. Wacha has posted a sub-4.00 ERA every year during that stretch, including a 3.60 ERA this season. His highest FIP over those five years was just 4.14 back in 2022.
His expected numbers have consistently been a little higher, with an xERA sitting just above 4.00 in each season. That is not enough to raise major concerns, but it does require some confidence that he can continue outperforming those underlying metrics. To his credit, he has done exactly that.
Perhaps the biggest appeal for Atlanta is the workload he provides.
The Braves’ starters are currently averaging 5.2 innings per start. Remove Sale from that equation and the average drops to 5.1 innings per outing. Holmes, Strider, and López all fall under 5.0 innings on average this year.
Wacha, meanwhile, is averaging 6.3 innings per start this season and 5.7 innings per start over the last five years. He is the definition of dependable. More often than not, you know you are getting around six innings while allowing three runs or fewer.
That kind of consistency has real value. The question is how much value it has for a team with championship aspirations.
The Risks Involved
Lane Thomas is actually the easier player to evaluate.
The biggest downside is that he is almost exclusively a platoon bat. Ideally, he is not playing every day, but instead starts against left-handed pitching while providing quality depth off the bench. As a relatively inexpensive rental, Thomas alone would likely cost only a lower-tier prospect.
The bigger question comes with Michael Wacha.
Yes, he gives Atlanta dependable innings. Yes, he has consistently beaten his expected numbers.
The concern is whether the Braves would be acquiring him at exactly the wrong time. Father Time remains undefeated, and Wacha turned 35 last month. Eventually those underlying metrics will catch up with him, and it would be painful if that happened shortly after Atlanta paid a premium to acquire him.
Another concern is how much he actually changes Atlanta’s outlook in October.
Pitchers who consistently provide six solid innings are incredibly valuable over a 162-game season. The postseason, however, is a different challenge. Missing bats and limiting hard contact are often the traits that separate successful playoff pitchers, and neither is a major strength for Wacha.
This season he ranks in just the 17th percentile in whiff rate and the 29th percentile in strikeout rate, while posting a slightly above-average 64th-percentile hard hit rate. Wacha allows plenty of contact, and that can become dangerous against elite playoff lineups.
When comparing him to Atlanta’s current options, it becomes difficult to see where he offers a significant upgrade worthy of the prospect cost.
Wacha allows more barrels than Elder. He misses fewer bats than Holmes. Even with López’s early-season struggles, the two pitchers profile surprisingly similarly beneath the surface.
With Wacha under team control through next season at $14 million and carrying a $14 million club option for 2028, the Royals understandably have every reason to ask for a significant return. They want to compete next season with a healthy Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jac Caglianone.
Would I Pull the Trigger?
Personally, I think Ryan’s proposed package is a bit lighter than what Kansas City is actually seeking, based on recent reports.
I would absolutely be willing to include Hurston Waldrep if it meant acquiring the right-handed bat Atlanta needs along with a dependable starter for the stretch run and potentially the next two seasons. The Braves have enough pitching depth in the farm system to move someone with Waldrep’s upside.
As for Alex Lodise, I still think he has really intriguing tools, but his struggles below Double-A have raised some legitimate concerns for me. If another club values his recent hot streak, I am comfortable selling high.
Cody Miller is another player I like. His versatility and well-rounded skill set make him an interesting prospect, but I ultimately project him as more of a utility bench player than an everyday regular. That is a profile I would be absolutely willing to include in the right deal.
Where I hesitate is the possibility that Kansas City wants even more for Wacha.
If that is the case, I simply do not think he is the right investment. Wacha is a good pitcher. There is no debating that. But the Braves are not trying to win games in June & July. They are trying to win playoff series in October.
Does Michael Wacha significantly change Atlanta’s chances once the postseason begins? For me, the answer is no.
AJ Smith-Shawver has returned from the injured list. Spencer Schwellenbach has already begun ramping up at the complex. Martin Pérez has recently returned from the injured list as well. Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, and Reynaldo López have all shown noticeable improvement after their difficult month of June.
If Atlanta simply needs innings to bridge the gap until October, there are less expensive options available. If Atlanta wants a true difference maker for October, there are better pitchers to pursue.
However, if the Royals’ asking price for Wacha ends up being lower than expected, this is a move that makes plenty of sense for the Braves.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by
Taylor is a baseball enthusiast and a writer for Just Baseball. An Atlanta native, he shares his love for the Braves, card collecting, and scouting the…