What Direction Will the Tigers Pick at the Trade Deadline?
The next few days will be crucial for the future of the Tigers. What will Scott Harris decide to do?
Detroit Tigers fans seem to be pretty split on what direction the team should go in over the next week leading up to the trade deadline. On one hand, they are several games under .500, have a few of the biggest assets on the market, and obviously need more talent in a system that many rank in the bottom third of the league.
On the other hand, the Tigers have been one of the best teams over the past month and have played like a playoff team when healthy, which they mostly now are.
With days to go until the trade deadline, the Tigers have to pick a direction. Standing pat cannot be an option. Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, and others are on expiring deals and could fetch the type of returns that could drastically impact the Tigers’ future.
Don’t want to trade away some of your best pieces? The American League is as weak as we have seen it in recent years, and Detroit is only a few games back, although five teams are ahead of them in the Wild Card race. Buying from a system that many view as weak could be a risk a team so far below .500 should not take.
I don’t envy Scott Harris and the position he is in. If you ask me, the next week is the most crucial of his tenure with the Tigers and will be a determining factor in how the rest of his time in Detroit plays out. So, what do the Tigers do?
Stats updated prior to games on July 29.
The Tarik Skubal Discussion
Let’s go ahead and get the biggest talking point, which has been discussed non-stop for well over a year, out of the way. Should the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back Cy Young winner? He’s pitching to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, 2.68 FIP, with 11 K/9 and 1.30 BB/9 over 25 starts. Without a doubt, Skubal is the top player that could be dealt at the deadline.
Although, moving Skubal is not as easy as finding the highest bidder. His one-year, $32 million contract could be a hefty one for certain teams to take on. Teams that usually do not play in this sandbox have been rumored to be interested, with Tampa Bay and Milwaukee reportedly in the mix.
Does that mean the Tigers could net prospects plus a major leaguer to help offset the money? I think that’s a type of avenue that would be interesting for both parties.
If the Tigers can somehow move Skubal while improving, say, their bullpen and/or lineup and bring back a top prospect, it would be an easier sell to the fan base. The clubhouse is a different story, but by now the team has to be mentally prepared for Skubal’s departure.
I have personally gone back and forth on what I want the Tigers to do. About two weeks ago, I wrote about why the Tigers should not trade Skubal. Now, I truly think I could go either way. The end of the Skubal trade discussions is sounding as refreshing as the potential return. Simply having the back and forth behind us would be a relief at this point.
Detroit not trading Skubal and coming up short of the playoffs, hell, even coming up short in the playoffs, would be a black eye fans will cling to for years to come. The unknown is always undefeated. No matter what direction the team takes, half of the fan base will be upset, for better or for worse.
In the end, I do think that Skubal is traded. A player with maybe 10 starts left in 2026 will not be as valuable to Scott Harris and Co. compared to the return they will get coming back. If he finds a way to add major leaguers with control, there’s a unique path where he can somehow trade Skubal and still compete.
The Domino Effect After Skubal
Teams that both buy and sell rarely make much noise. Probably because it does not happen that often and because they weren’t that great to start with. Detroit could move Skubal, no one else, and still push for the playoffs. Obviously their chances, which sit around 25-30% with Skubal, would drop.
Jack Flaherty and Jackson Jobe are set to return from injury, and Justin Verlander, theoretically, could as well. With Troy Melton and Keider Montero stepping up in a big way, the Tigers could still piece together a formidable, even respectable, rotation without Skubal. But, I won’t sit here and try to sugarcoat it. Trading Skubal and acting like you like your chances would be a lie.
If the return for Skubal is too good to pass up, it’s likely the return for Mize will be as well. Mize has dealt with injuries throughout his career and is set to hit the open market this winter. He’s currently in the middle of a career year, posting a 2.70 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 8.83 K/9, and 1.97 BB/9. The return would be significant, and the chances to re-sign him aren’t.
I won’t pretend to have any insider information, but does your gut tell you the Tigers will give Casey Mize the contract he’ll demand? After the injuries, the ups and downs, and the arbitration battle not long ago over less than $100,000. I think he’s elsewhere in 2027.
Moving Mize and Skubal and still trying to compete will fall on deaf ears. Flaherty and Torres likely won’t return a haul significant enough to truly wave the white flag, so not moving them and trying to convince everyone you are pushing for the playoffs is more believable. Skubal and Mize? Not so much.
Moving both signals that you do not think 2026 is a year you can compete. As much as we all hate to hear that, it is probably the most realistic and level-headed thought. Injuries did tank the month of May, and the healthy Tigers do look like a playoff team, but the fact is that the month of May still happened. It still counts.
Detroit going into a true sell mode is a possibility, and in some ways, I don’t blame them. The team and farm system have flaws. Enough flaws that buying their way out of it in a week isn’t all that possible and would potentially set the Tigers back in a way that they cannot afford to be set back.
But, if the Tigers don’t trade anyone away and instead do go down the risky path of buying, what could that look like?
Entertaining the Idea of Buying
The most optimistic person you know thinks the Tigers are a couple of bullpen arms away from being a legit playoff contender. And you know what, they could be right. The Tigers lead the league in all of the stats that tell you your high-leverage arms are flat out bad. Blown saves, losing leads after the seventh, and so on.
Adding Kenley Jansen and bringing back Kyle Finnegan has not been the answer the Tigers had hoped for. Drew Sommers, Brenan Hanifee, Jacob Waguespack, and Drew Anderson all in the same bullpen doesn’t strike fear in opponents late in the game. Maybe Jackson Jobe could return and take a bullpen spot, Verlander and Brant Hurter too, but you still need more.
Detroit is not going to trade one of its top prospects for a bona fide closer. Max Anderson is where I would put the line of best prospect who could be moved, and maybe he gets you a bullpen arm that could help you out, but we aren’t going to see Mason Miller wearing the Old English D,
I’m not against the idea of buying bullpen arms that could help you now and into future seasons, but I don’t have any evidence that the Tigers are willing to pay the price to get impact relievers. They had situations where it made sense last year and over the winter and did not do so. That leads me to believe they won’t now.
Not to mention, help is needed elsewhere. Matt Vierling and James Outman are still on this roster. No disrespect to Ben Malgeri, but I struggle to see him as an answer for 2026. Zach McKinstry and Javier Báez are better bench players than starters, and Hao-Yu Lee, who’s been fantastic recently, is far from proven.
Not only does the bullpen need significant help, the lineup does as well. Ask yourself this: Are the 51-57 Tigers, with a questionable farm system and major assets they could move, going to send away four to six prospects to better their bullpen and lengthen their lineup? I don’t think so either.
Predicting the Tigers’ Decision
When the trade deadline comes, I think the Tigers will be sellers. Like it or not, every team has models that help them make decisions, and I believe Scott Harris is a big believer in following those models. The Framber Valdez signing was a big move and more on the risky side, but most other moves he has made were not.
Targeting older veterans on short-term deals and buying a bunch of fringe players at last year’s deadline is not the evidence I need to think he’ll suddenly complete the Hail Mary. Or even call the play.
Being sellers at the 2026 deadline does not mean the Tigers cannot be a contender in 2027. The foundation is set, and there’s enough talent to head into the offseason, reload with freed-up money, and be right back in it for 2027. Adding the young talent from Skubal, Mize, Torres, and other trades only helps their position for 2027.
Look, I’d much rather be sitting here talking about buying and winning baseball games. I don’t like the idea of always focusing on prospects and the future, but I also don’t like the idea of living in a false reality. I like when my team takes risks, but I don’t like when they are reckless. I think Scott Harris would view keeping Mize and Skubal as reckless asset management, and therefore they will be wearing new uniforms within a week.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by