Pete Crow-Armstrong Has a Real Shot to Win NL MVP

Ever since Shohei Ohtani made his way into the National League back in 2024 with an electric campaign that founded the 50-homer, 50-stolen base club, the league’s MVP Award has been his to lose. Of course, it’s difficult for many players to challenge Ohtani, a two-way unicorn who routinely wows the baseball world with record-setting accomplishments on a seemingly daily basis.

However, for the first time since the 2023 season, the NL MVP race may come down to the wire, as a new challenger has emerged from the Windy City: Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.

After PCA produced an electric first half of the 2025 season, many people around the industry thought Ohtani would have some competition for the NL MVP later in the season. However, a second-half collapse derailed this from ever coming to fruition, as Ohtani ran away with the award, especially as he hopped back onto the mound and helped the Dodgers win back-to-back World Series titles.

However, this season, PCA is producing at a level closer to his first-half production in 2025, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down in the second half, which is a huge development for the young star. Even though Ohtani has been virtually unhittable while on the mound, an injury has derailed his potential Cy Young campaign, and this same injury could help close the gap between these two players.

In this story, I’ll attempt to explain why the NL MVP race is actually far closer than it may initially seem, and why PCA has a real chance to take home this award following the completion of the 2026 season.

Breaking Down PCA’s Electric 2026 Campaign

Currently in Major League Baseball, there might not be a better model example of what a five-tool player should look like than Pete Crow-Armstrong. It seems as though there isn’t a single tool that he doesn’t possess, as he’s able to slug, fly around the bases, and dive all over the outfield, making spectacular catches regularly.

So far this season, PCA has been absolutely electric at the plate, showing that his first-half pacing from last season could potentially hold over a full 162-game campaign. Through 117 games this year, PCA has slashed .289/.388/.549 with 26 homers, 30 stolen bases, and an astounding 156 wRC+.

On top of all of this, PCA has already racked up a ridiculous 8.0 fWAR. Not only does this put him on pace to reach the 10.5 fWAR mark by season’s end, but this currently places him atop all big leaguers by over two full wins. In other words, PCA hasn’t just been the most valuable player in baseball in terms of fWAR, but he’s been the most valuable player in baseball by a wide margin.

PCA’s blend of speed and slug is unlike any other in the sport. He’s the only player in baseball with 20 or more homers and 25 or more stolen bases, as only two players (CJ Abrams, Elly De La Cruz) have even joined the 20/20 club to this point.

As it currently stands, PCA has boasted a hard-hit rate of 49.7%, a mark that places him among the top sluggers in the league, which is a further testament to his power.

In addition to that, PCA is one of only 29 players to have reached the 114.5 MPH max exit velocity mark or higher, as his 114.6 MPH mark has equaled Ohtani, Mike Trout, Pete Alonso, and Julio Rodriguez, a simply loaded group of hitters.

While he’s been hitting at a video game pace to this point, we still haven’t even dove into what might be PCA’s best tool: His glove.

PCA leads all fielders in OAA with a ridiculous mark of 22, making this the second season in a row where he’s cracked that threshold. In fact, he’s one of only two players in baseball to reach 20 OAA this season (JJ Wetherholt being the other), and one of six players to reach this mark in the last two seasons.

PCA has also done all of this without skimping on his arm strength, which is also elite in its own right. His arm value of four this season has placed him in the 97th percentile, and his arm strength also finds itself above the 90th percentile. PCA’s glove is as elite and well-rounded as you’ll find in the sport.

All of these tools come together to form a truly spectacular baseball player on all cylinders. He’s one of the most well-rounded, talented, and energetic players the sport has seen in recent memory, and we’re finally seeing what his ceiling could look like if he holds this pace for a full season.

Comparing PCA and Ohtani

Now that we’ve taken a deeper look at Pete Crow-Armstrong’s elite production on the surface, we can begin to compare him to his competition for the NL MVP Award. As it currently stands, this is most likely going to be Shohei Ohtani, who is in the midst of seeking his third straight MVP.

Beginning with the offensive side of things, PCA leads Ohtani in multiple categories, and where he doesn’t, he’s able to come very close to Ohtani’s marks.

In the power department, they’re quite comparable players. Both Ohtani and PCA have hit 26 home runs to this point, and their slugging percentages find themselves mere points apart. Ohtani’s .554 slugging percentage leads PCA by four points, as the two have flip-flopped for the lead in this area with regular frequency.

Ohtani has an eight-point lead in batting average, a 13-point lead in on-base percentage, the aforementioned four-point lead in slugging percentage, and a one-point difference in wOBA. With the difference between these two hitters being razor-thin, these marks could easily flip in PCA’s favor with a slower week from Ohtani.

wOBA isn’t the only place where PCA leads Ohtani by a point or two, either. PCA currently has a two-point lead over Ohtani in wRC+ — arguably one of the most accurate metrics for capturing a hitter’s true value. Both hitters find themselves with a wRC+ of 150 or better, which certainly places them within elite territory.

This next step is where things get really interesting. While reading this section, you’ve probably been wondering when I would mention Ohtani’s pitching stats, since his ability to hit and pitch at an elite level should naturally give him the edge over a player who’s more one-dimensional.

While this is typically the case, you can still build out a real argument in PCA’s favor. While Ohtani’s two-way nature includes his pitching and offensive skills, in a way, PCA is a lighter version of a two-way player, with the second leg of his game being his elite defense.

As mentioned earlier, PCA is actively playing some of the best defense we’ve seen in baseball history, as his range and arm strength combine to form a nearly unbeatable duo. This is PCA’s “two-way” aspect, as he’s able to combine his defense with his bat to form his own unicorn-like skillset.

This is actually reflected in the pair’s fWAR totals as well. As previously mentioned, PCA’s 8.0 fWAR leads all MLB hitters by a large margin, including Shohei Ohtani. However, Ohtani’s fWAR in this case only accounts for his offense. If you add his pitching totals to his offensive totals, his fWAR comes out to 6.7.

In other words, PCA is such a valuable defender that when you pair his offensive and defensive value together, they still come out on top over the value Ohtani has generated at the plate and on the mound. This is some of the best evidence to use in PCA’s favor, as it really shows just how valuable he’s been.

Could PCA Really Win the Award?

As things currently stand, the gap between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong is razor-thin. Even if you’re willing to give Ohtani the top spot based on name value and overall talent alone, there are a few major questions that will be fixtures in this debate over the next few weeks and could ultimately shape the outcome of this race by season’s end.

For example, Ohtani is currently in the midst of taking a break from pitching due to lingering knee problems and biceps soreness, which could help close the gap between the two players because Ohtani will lose the value he gains from pitching.

In addition to that, even though he’s currently still hitting every day for the Dodgers, Ohtani may have to take some time off altogether to let himself truly heal, which could help PCA even more.

As previously mentioned, the gap between these two players is already tiny, meaning a slow week from either player could completely flip the MVP race in the other direction. Especially as voter fatigue could kick in for Ohtani, the voters may ultimately end up favoring the Windy City’s superstar.

No matter how this race finishes, it will be exciting to watch the entire way, as this is the first real MVP race we’ve seen in the NL since Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2023. This will be one of the more fun storylines to follow throughout the rest of the season, as this race could truly go either way.