What Do the Reds Have To Trade at the Deadline?
The Reds need to be strategic about how they attack the deadline this year. What does that look like?
After jumping out to a hot start, the Cincinnati Reds have cratered to a 23-41 record since May 1 and won only three of their past 12 series going into the All-Star break. A caboose in the NL Central and eight back of the Wild Card have placed them, once again, as sellers at the trade deadline.
This season was supposed to be one with playoff aspirations. Sneaking into the postseason last year served as a taste of what was supposed to come now and into the near future. Well, a Hunter Greene injury and step back in the rotation quickly exposed how thin their margins were, while the lineup’s depth being a massive drop-off from their top players has forced a nosedive.
No one wants to discuss moving players in late July yet again. Most seasons we have the same discussion. Who needs to be traded, which prospects make sense in a return, and how soon can the Reds right the ship? Yet, here we are having that exact conversation.
What makes this year different is the fact that a teardown would be an overreaction. Elly De La Cruz has been great, Sal Stewart is trending in the right direction, and Chase Burns is a budding star, while Greene’s contract is too favorable to move even with injury concerns.
Although I believe the Reds need to make a change in the front office, I also believe that they should try to compete next year and perhaps the year after, as well. Starting over now doesn’t make sense, and the backlash they would receive from the fans might actually be the final straw.
So, the Reds need to be strategic about how they attack the deadline. Seller, yes, but not a going-out-of-business mattress store level of selling.
Players Who Need To Be Traded
Options: Eugenio Suárez – expiring deal, Tyler Stephenson – expiring deal, Nathaniel Lowe – expiring deal, Brady Singer – expiring deal, Brock Burke – expiring deal, Pierce Johnson – expiring deal
Make an offer, any offer. The majority of the Reds’ expiring deals should be on the trade block and moved to whoever gives you the best offer. I do not personally see any of these players as long-term fits, and if someone wants to bring them on to finish out the season, so be it.
Tyler Stephenson is the one player I could see the Reds hesitating on moving. Although Jose Trevino is under contract next season, the Reds’ catching depth is extremely thin and would need to be addressed regardless.
Top prospect Alfredo Duno is the catcher of the future and already in Double-A, but you don’t see many 21-year-olds as an Opening Day catcher. Especially considering Duno has missed a lot of development due to injury. If Stephenson wouldn’t garner much of a return, trying to re-sign him to be the option with Duno, and cutting Trevino, would be welcome, although unlikely.
Suárez is obviously the big name on this list. A power-only option who strikes out a lot and doesn’t add defense already has a limited offering. He’s currently in the middle of the worst baseball he has played in a decade and would not bring back much of a return.
At this point, a back-end top-30-level prospect or flier is about all you could expect. He’s quite literally been one of the worst hitters in baseball, so I would not be surprised if the market is zero on Suárez.
While Nathaniel Lowe’s 114 wRC+ and 10 home runs look good on paper, his production has slowed significantly since his hot start. A .642 OPS in June and .610 OPS in July for a 1B/DH with a platoon-only asterisk is not going to send the phones ringing off the hook.
It’s worth noting his .886 home OPS with nine home runs and .723 road OPS with one home run does not help, either. Keep in mind, Lowe bounced around last year and was a non-roster invitee to spring training. Teams know what he is.
The other three options – Singer, Burke, Johnson – are having down years and will probably come at a discount. Singer has been better lately but will be viewed as a back-end arm that will not likely be in a playoff team’s rotation. Productive, but not atop anyone’s deadline wish list.
Of the players that the Reds should move without a doubt. I do not expect an impactful return for any of them. Mid-to-low tier prospects, a teenager in rookie ball, or a potential bullpen arm in the upper minors would be my best guess. Cincinnati’s farm system is at a point where they would welcome that level of return as they need more darts to throw at the board.
Players Who Might Be Traded
Options: JJ Bleday (2 yrs of control), Spencer Steer (2 yrs of control), Tejay Antone (1 yr of control), Sam Moll (1 yr of control), Nick Lodolo (1 yr of control), Caleb Ferguson (expiring contract)
Let’s start the discussion with JJ Bleday, who the Reds signed for $1.4 million this offseason and has produced 16 home runs and a 126 wRC+. With two years of control, Bleday could be, and in my opinion should be, kept in the organization. Cincinnati still needs bodies next season, and Bleday being a lefty bat and an outfielder fills two needs they will have come winter.
He’s a relatively high-floor bat that has shown more power than we have seen previously from him. A good find that should be part of the solution for 2027. You already have enough holes for the 2027 roster, and I do not think Bleday would get the return many might expect.
If someone wants to give you a legit prospect, I might be convinced. But in all likelihood, the return would not be enough for me to roll the dice on this organization finding another answer to their outfield woes.
Steer is another name that has started to generate interest. A solid player who I have always said should be closer to your sixth best player than your third or fourth. You know what you get with Steer. Decent power, bad defense, and versatility that sounds good but doesn’t really hold value due to his defensive deficiencies.
I’m more open to moving Steer, even with two years of control, because of the roster fit. The Reds have a number of righty bats, and I view him more as a first baseman than anything else. His arbitration number will start to creep to a point where the cash doesn’t match the fit or production.
If rumors of interest are true, I think using Steer as the current starter who could help the farm system in a move instead of Bleday would be my preferred option.
Lodolo’s continuous struggles with blisters are both frustrating and bizarre. At this point, I do not think his trade value will reach a point where moving him makes sense. Teams are going to try to get a discount, as they should, making a trade unlikely. The rotation needs stability next season, and having Lodolo, blisters and all, in the mix helps more than a discounted return.
The last name I’ll touch on is Ferguson. Although he’s on an expiring deal, his injury has limited him to only 19 games. He’s from the area and could be useful to have in 2027 if keeping him around is in the cards. If the front office gets the gist that he is not interested in trying the one-year deal again, I’m sure you could find a trade partner for an effective lefty at a relatively low cost.
Everyone Else Who Could Possibly Be Traded
Options: TJ Friedl (2 yrs of control), Emilio Pagán ($10 m player option), Dane Myers (2 yrs of control)
I don’t view this list of players as likely, but I would not be shocked if any were moved. Friedl has been dreadful this season and is a non-tender candidate, making him expendable for anything someone is willing to give you.
Why would someone want him? I’m not entirely sure, but each year we see depth players moved that no one is expecting around the league. His profile is not attractive to many teams, but considering the cost to acquire and minor league options, someone could see him as a short-term bench solution. I don’t see him as part of the 2027 Reds either way.
The Reds signed Pagán to a deal that felt rich at the time and has not paid off so far. The $10 million price tag was not egregious, but the player option was a risk the Reds are now dealing with. I don’t think he’s been nearly good enough to attract a team to bring him in, considering the player option is likely to be picked up.
Lastly, we have Myers. A good offseason addition who serves as a short side platoon player and solid defender in center. Righty outfielders are a surprisingly scarce market, especially for players who can play a good center field. A .787 OPS off lefties and two years of control makes Myers intriguing. Blake Dunn being the internal replacement makes the move more likely, although both players are currently injured.
Final Thoughts
I do not think we will see many impactful moves from the Reds at this year’s deadline. The young talent that could bring big returns has enough team control that moving them does not yet make sense, while the players who are available have not been playing at a level that demands prospects you will get excited about.
One avenue the Reds could, and in my opinion should, explore will be targeting bullpen arms. The outlook for the Reds bullpen is bleak, and what they currently have to trade could net intriguing Double-A or Triple-A arms to bolster the bullpen as soon as next year. That’s where I see the value best matching at this year’s trade deadline.
Become a Member of Just Baseball
Subscribe and upgrade to go ad-free!
* Save 25% by subscribing annually.
Written by