2026 Home Run Derby Picks: A Model Based Approach

Two schools of thought. One could create a statistical model and run 200,000 simulations to find the best value for the home run derby. Or, one can slug eight beers, head over to Citizens Bank Park, and, five minutes before the Derby starts, think, “Schwarbombs in Philly.”

I built a model that simulates the new-format Home Run Derby thousands of times, estimating each hitter’s odds of going deep on any given swing from their Statcast power numbers, recent power streaks, and even who’s throwing batting practice to them.

I then blend those simulated odds with the lines from BetMGM to see where the model and the market disagree. It’s a data-driven projection built on many judgment calls, not a guarantee by any stretch; treat it as an informed opinion, nothing more.

Considering the new rules this year, I thought this year’s Derby market would be softer, but at the end of the day, this is just my best guess on how the event will go.

New Home Run Derby Rules

No more timer! Each hitter gets 20 swings in the first round, and every swing counts against that total whether the ball leaves the yard or not. A hitter who homers on his final swing keeps swinging until he makes an out.

The four highest home run totals advance to seeded, head-to-head semifinals, and the two winners meet in the final, with 15 swings per hitter in both rounds. Totals reset each round.

There are no bonus rounds and no time-outs. First-round ties are broken by the longest home run, and the later rounds use a three-swing swing-off.

The Field

This is a “Ball-Knowers” draft, as per Podcast P. If you are a die-hard fan, you’ll be salivating over these eight. Kyle Schwarber headlines the Derby as the league leader in homers and a future Hall of Famer (500 career homers soon).

We have young behemoths in Jac Caglianone and Jordan Walker, plus a power wunderkind in Junior Caminero. Munetaka Murakami has 80-grade raw power. Ben Rice has 29 home runs. Bryce Harper already won the Home Run Derby in 2018. Willson Contreras has 14 home runs this season that have traveled over 400 feet. We are so spoiled, I love it.

Explaining the Model

Even though the Derby isn’t very complicated, the model is. The model combines a metric (no pun intended) ton of Statcast data, park factors, weather factors, past derby accomplishments, and, arguably most important, a ranking system of the pitchers throwing to these hitters.

I also weighted the quality of each hitter’s regular-season home runs. It’s one thing to hit a bunch of homers, but how powerful are those homers? Are you hitting a bunch of wall scrapers, or are you putting them 40 rows deep? Players who send balls into orbit tend to do well in the Derby, so this is far from a home run ranking.

I also looked at the field’s recent form. Last 30 days, last 15 days, you get the drill. Are there a few guys getting hot at the right time, or have they gone cold entering the break? It’s certainly not the end-all-be-all, but it’s worth weighing in the model.

Major Takeaways

The model appears to be favoring lefties. Makes sense, Citizens Bank Park has been a haven for lefty-power bats, especially this season, ranking as one of the best parks in baseball for home runs from the left side. Per BallparkPal, there is 8-10 MPH wind blowing out to right center. Combine the park with the wind, and left-handed hitters will have an advantage.

However, Bryce Harper appears to be at a disadvantage. He got the lowest BP Pitcher score, which, of course, isn’t his fault. His pitcher, Dino Ebel, is objectively good (grooved the pitches Schwarber hit 3 HRs off to win the 2025 ASG swing-off), but Harper has NEVER practiced with him and says outright, “we’ll go into it a bit blind.” Zero rapport with this specific hitter is a major risk, and with a loaded field, I bet him to get bounced in the first round and miss the semi-finals (-156).

The model did not disqualify Murakami due to his recent injury, quite the opposite. In my head, I originally thought he might be rusty going in and would ultimately disappoint, considering he was the first to 20 home runs in MLB, and has some of the best raw power in baseball right now. He was built to hit dingers, but after that injury, people are leaving him for dead. Not so fast, there is another way of looking at this.

Is he the freshest? You can make a sound argument that he hasn’t experienced the typical wear and tear of playing every day in the lead-up to the Derby.

He’s clearly healthy now; otherwise, the White Sox wouldn’t put him on the field, and he would never have accepted this opportunity if his hamstring were still acting up. I did not ding him at all, but the market appears to have done so, meaning there is plenty of value on Murakami to cruise through this thing with a great shot of winning it.

The biggest takeaway is how much the model loves Schwarber over everyone else. Even though he is the favorite, the model believes he remains undervalued at the current price.

Here are the model win percentages, betting odds, and associated EV percentages. Lines are courtesy of BetMGM and subject to change (Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a $1,500 new-player offer).

Name	Bats	Betting Odds	Model%	Weighted-Model%	True Line	EV%
K. Schwarber	Left	+330	30.9%	25.7%	+289	+10.5%
M. Murakami	Left	+500	19.9%	17.3%	+478	+3.8%
J. Caminero	Right	+425	15.2%	16.0%	+525	-16%
J. Caglianone	Left	+650	15.2%	13.5%	+641	+1.3%
J. Walker	Right	+700	8.4%	9.7%	+931	-22.4%
W. Contreras	Right	+1200	5.1%	6.4%	+1595	-23.3%
B. Rice	Left	+850	3.5%	5.9%	+1462	-39.2%
B. Harper	Left	+850	1.8%	5.5%	+1718	-47.8%

We want the +EV plays. At the current price, Jac Caglianone and Munetaka Murakami appear undervalued, while Caminero, Walker, Contreras, Rice, and Harper appear overvalued.

At the end of the day, the drunk Phillies fan and I agree. It was always Schwarbombs at the Bank. Kyle Schwarber is my pick to win the 2026 Home Run Derby.

His raw numbers are simply the best in the field. He sits at the top of Barrel% with elite exit velocities and especially strong marks on the metrics that measure his actual home runs specifically (exit velo and distance on the balls he’s already hit out this season), plus the highest fly-ball rate of anyone in the Derby.

Then the setting stacks in his favor on top of that: it’s literally his home ballpark, Citizens Bank Park’s park factor favors lefties more than righties (115 vs. 105), and he’s a lefty, and the 8 mph wind blowing out to center helps fly-ball hitters most, which he is.

His recent form was hot going in, and of everyone in the field, he has the cleanest, most established batting-practice pitcher relationship, two years of regular reps with Rafael Pena in the cage. There are no red flags in his profile; he is the premier left-handed power bat in baseball today.

I made nine other bets as well, some props, and players to make the semifinals, make the finals, and some fun longshots. All of them are backed by the model, and if you follow me on Pikkit, you can find them all for free. All you have to do is download the app (it’s free) and follow me (@peterappel23). If you want to make yourself some money, sync your own sportsbook, and you’ll make anywhere from $3 to $100.