Two Veterans Have Surprising St. Louis Cardinals Eyeing October

The St. Louis Cardinals seemed destined for a rebuild after an offseason of limited adding to the roster. In fact, anything resembling a veteran player became a topic of trade discussion.

Four contributors donned new threads by spring training. Right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray and first baseman Willson Contreras found themselves in Boston. Nolan Arenado, who had a rollercoaster career for the Red Birds, is an Arizona Diamondback. Brendan Donovan, a steady force at the top of the lineup, with defensive versatility to boot, found himself in Seattle.

Since 2024, that quartet contributed 23.1 fWAR. All gone, with the intention of letting younger, less established players learn the ropes of Major League Baseball. Yet, through 73 games, the Cardinals are a playoff team, anchored by a rotation that’s top 10 in earned run average.

Beneath the surface, things aren’t as great on the mound. They’re 17th in FIP, bottom-five in strikeout rate, and give up loud contact at an alarming frequency. And yet, despite all of that, they’re 40-33.

Why is that?

Stats updated prior to games on June 19.

Dustin May’s Revival

The resurrection of former top prospect Dustin May has been something to behold. The 28-year-old right-hander has been brilliant in 2026, posting 2.1 fWAR. That’s tied with Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Michael Soroka for 15th among MLB’s qualified pitchers.

His ERA isn’t stellar, but a respectable 3.75. However, he’s 12th with a 3.01 FIP and 18th with a 3.38 expected ERA. His brilliance is best defined by his last 12 starts. After his first two starts saddled him with an ERA of 15.95, he’s been a legitimate ace-level pitcher for the Cardinals. Not only that, there’s a real case to be made that he should represent the organization at this summer’s All-Star Game in Atlanta.

The velocity uptick is a major reason for this. Last year, his first real burn at the MLB level as a starter, he averaged 94.8 on the heater. While hardly slow, it was only good for 58th percentile in 2025. This year, it’s gone up two full ticks.

His sinker saw a similar uptick in velocity, and the results followed. Last year, it was one of the worst fastball offerings in the sport, as opponents slugged .567 against it. This year? Just .328. His cutter, which is still not super viable, has gone up in usage with added success.

In all the ways he could see gains since last year, he’s seen them. The talent was always there; the major question was whether he could stay healthy. While the question remains to be answered until the 2026 campaign draws to a close, he’s appeared to get stronger.

But there’s more to the Cardinals’ success than May’s career revival. Because of this, they’ve got legitimate postseason aspirations in a rebuilding year.

Alec Burleson Is a Monster

Every year of his career, Alec Burleson has improved upon the previous one. His wRC+ has risen from 56 in 16 games in 2022 to 124 across 139 contests a season ago.

The Cardinals first baseman is lauded as a platoon-type of player. But that’s not such an issue when you’re a strong-side platoon player.

Since 2024, Burleson has handled righties at a well-above-average clip. This year, however, he’s in another dimension. Across 222 plate appearances, he’s slashing .327/.401/.592 with a 175 wRC+. Not only is he torching right-handers in general, but he’s eighth in OPS against them across MLB. Among NL left-handed hitters, he’s fifth.

He’s slugging more, walking more, and even making strides as a defender at first base. In a lineup missing much pedigree, he’s the straw that stirs the drink.

What To Do at the Deadline?

Lead executive Chaim Bloom fell out of favor during his go-around at the helm with Boston, largely due to lackluster deadlines.

His 2021 deadline brought the Red Sox Hansel Robles and Kyle Schwarber, both of whom were critical in getting the team two wins away from a World Series berth. However, his 2022 and 2023 deadlines were questioned at the time and ridiculed more as time wore on.

It’ll be fascinating to see if he learned from his prior mistakes navigating that type of market. It’s a lot easier to trade the established player for dartboard throws. It’s harder to take calculated risks to improve your team in the short term.

The question he must ask himself is how much he wants to deviate from the initial plan. He can say whatever he wants, but if you trade the players he did in the offseason, you’re not expecting to be a playoff team that next season.

Getting stability in the rotation, however, will be paramount. If they can add some swing-and-miss, that’ll improve their chances of getting to and advancing in October. It doesn’t have to be the likes of Freddy Peralta, but there are fascinating arms out there.

Maybe they’re the team that takes a chance on left-hander Robbie Ray, who’s having an up-and-down 2026 for the San Francisco Giants. Last year, Ray re-emerged as a viable mid-rotation starter. He’s also an expiring player making a salary the Giants would love to shed any of.

No matter what they do at the deadline, the Cardinals are a fun story in 2026. Their fans have been equally electric. It’ll be fascinating to see how they handle the next six weeks.