The NL Cy Young Race Is Shaping Up To Be Legendary

When we entered this season, it felt as if we were almost locked in to getting another repeat of winners for the two Cy Young Awards.  

Not so fast.  

In a recent article, I wrote about just how wide open the American League Cy Young Award race became once Tarik Skubal went down with the injury, which was supposed to keep him on the shelf for an extended period of time.

Then, in the National League, in large part due to an unprecedentedly slow start by the incumbent winner, Paul Skenes, we are witnessing what appears to be one of the best award races of recent memory.

As it currently stands, in my opinion, this is a three-man race to the end. Funny enough, despite what the current odds would read, I don’t believe that the 2025 NL Cy Young winner is one of those three.

While Skenes is certainly capable of flipping the switch and going sicko mode for the rest of the season, shutting me up, I believe the competition is performing that much better. So much so that it is going to be hard to catch up to him.

Skenes currently sits at a 2.89 ERA across 65.1 innings with 75 strikeouts and an ERA+ of 143. When it comes to the standards to which we hold Skenes, you’d likely be disappointed with where his numbers currently sit.  

It’s okay, though. Thankfully for us, the National League just happens to be loaded with high-end starting pitching this season.

If you were to look at the current odds at BetMGM, as I alluded to earlier, Skenes is third in odds to take home the hardware at +500. However, it’s the two pitchers about him — and the one below — that I believe will be the three finalists when it’s all said and done.

Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies): +175

If you were not a believer in just how talented Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez was before, then you most definitely should be now.

It was back in 2024 when Sánchez began to make a name for himself. After being named to his first All-Star Game, the lefty ended the season pitching to a 3.32 ERA across 181.2 innings. He’d go on to strike out 153 in those innings, posting a 126 ERA+ for a Philadelphia team that finished first in the National League East, but fell to the New York Mets in four games in the NLDS.

He was then able to back up that breakout year last season after pitching to a 2.50 ERA in a career-high 202 innings and striking out 9.4 hitters per nine. This performance would ultimately lead to him finishing second in the National League Cy Young Award race. 

What we are witnessing now in 2026 is a whole different beast. Cristopher Sánchez currently is second in MLB in innings pitched (79.1) and batters faced (323) and first in ERA (1.47) and ERA+ (289). All while only having allowed three home runs all season. Where he is truly separating himself from the pack is with his offspeed.  

Sánchez has a true three-pitch mix in which he uses a decent amount. Led by his sinker, which he is throwing 43% of the time, it is his changeup that is his most-dominant pitch. The offspeed pitch alone ranks the best in baseball in terms of run value with a 12. Per Baseball Savant, that would rank in the 100th percentile.  

He is also finding a tremendous amount of success in keeping the ball on the ground at a 57.3% clip. All while striking hitters out at just a tick under 30%.

The National League Cy Young Award race was not actually much of a race, despite a nice season by Cristopher Sánchez. Paul Skenes had become the first unanimous NL Cy Young Award winner since Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara took home the award in 2022 and just the fifth to achieve this feat in the past two decades.

Since day one, Sánchez has continued to put up one dominant outing after another and should, no doubt, be the favorite to come away with the award at the end of the season.

Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers): +180

If you are one of the individuals infatuated with the color red on a certain baseball stat website, then do I have something to show you:

I need to preface this blurb by saying that what “The Miz” is doing to hitters this season is simply unfair. This chart may say that he is only averaging 99.8 mph on his fastball, but I don’t know if I have watched an outing where I have seen his fastball not touch triple digits more often than not.

When a pitcher is dominating opponents as much as he is, while truly only relying on one pitch a third of the time, that arm is doing something special.

Despite possessing a three-pitch pitch mix, all ranking as plus pitches in the run value column, Misiorowski is finding his success by featuring his four-seam fastball 62% of the time. When it becomes silly is when he begins to throw his taste-breaking breaking ball to keep hitters on their toes, but let’s be honest, a 7.5 inch extension from someone who stands six-foot-seven just means he is likely right on top of the hitters as he releases the pitch.

I am having a hard time believing that the award race is going to be separated by more than a handful of votes come season’s end. The 1.65 ERA in 71 innings this year — already eclipsing the 100 strikeout mark — would be leaps and bounds better than any one else.

In a normal season, maybe.

Nonetheless, Misiorowski is looking to be the true competitor for the award at the end of the season, and that’s reflected in how tight the odds are. We are in for a treat, ladies and gentlemen.

Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): +550

Truth be told, come award season, this is likely going to be a two-man race between Sánchez and Misiorowski. Even if that’s the case, it should not allow us to dismiss what Shohei Ohtani has done on the mound this year.

His 0.82 ERA in 55 innings also further justifies my claim that he should be third in the odds race right now for the award. That ERA, by the way, would be best in the league had he qualified. The question then becomes whether the Dodgers would actually let him pitch enough to qualify for the award.

We are witnessing something truly special from Shohei in his first full season back on the mound following the elbow surgery he underwent following the 2023 season. Already to this point, he has surpassed the 47 innings he pitched for the Dodgers last year. The two-way star is holding opposing hitters to a .186 xBA, which currently ranks in the 94th percentile. It would also be a career-best in the category.

Shohei is also dominating on the mound with the use of his full four-pitch mix. Aside from the 44.7% four-seamer usage, he has been able to replicate the same distinguishing shape to his sweeper-curveball combination, while also being able to execute the devastating split-finger.

I am sure I can speak for all baseball fans when I say it is great to see him making an impact on both sides of the ball again.

Prediction

As I alluded to earlier, I do believe this will become a two-man race in the end. Either way, this truly is becoming a legendary race for an award which was seemingly already handed to one pitcher before the season started.

It doesn’t matter what you may have going on at the time; Cristopher Sánchez and Jacob Misiorowski are both appointment television right now, plain and simple. What makes it even more beautiful for baseball fans is that they’re both doing so in completely different ways.

While Sánchez is becoming quite the architect with his pitch execution and how he approaches at-bats, Misiorowski is succeeding through sheer dominance with velocity.

If I were to place a bet on someone right now, at the current odds, I would choose Jacob Misiorowski. At the end of the day, we’re all cynical about the fact that we love the flash. There’s something about just how dominant Misiorowski continues to be that makes it even more impressive.

Especially when you then add in the fact that, while he was climbing through the minors, there were real questions as to whether he’d even be able to be a starter in the big leagues.

Betting odds and stats were taken prior to play on June 2.